亚马逊2026年第二季度前瞻：上调AWS增速指引，预计第三季度指引匹配市场预期

guide to bracket Street on Prime Day compReiterateRating:BUYIPO:310.00USD|Price:249.99USD 2QPreview:RaisingAWSto33%2Qgrowth $196.8bn/$23.6bn.We are raising our AWS growth est.to 33% y/y from 31%, a 5pptaccel in growth vs 1Q, driven by Anthropic-related revs. and OpenAl models fueling Bedrock demand. We expect AwS margins to contract q/as stock-based comp stepsup, but expand on a y/ybasis to 34%given strong capacity utilization/pricing.GOOGreports on7/22&MSFTon7/29,and cloud resultswill likelyshapeexpectations.Wethink Amazon could raise its 2026 capex outlook to $210bn on higher memory costs.Expectations may be in line for retail, above for AwS Key Changes BAC aggregated credit and debit card data indicating Online spend accelerated 2ppts q/q, and we think expectations are consistent with Street ests.for N.A. Retail growth to accel.for Anthropic and 3rd party data is strong; we think Street could be expecting AWS growtharound 34%, slightly below 3rd party data as 1Q results trailed 3P ests.3QOutlook:ExpectoutlooktobrackettheStreet +1 415 676 3547justin.post@bofa.comSteven McDermottResearch Analyst BofAS+1 646 855 4472steven.mcdermott@bofa.com For3Q, we expect rev.guidance at $200.5bn-$205.5bn (+2% q/qat midpoint vs BofA),which compares to Street at s204bn. Our outlook incorporates a $1bn q/g decline in NA Retail revs.due to Prime Day Timing, offset by q/q Intl retail growth & AWS accel to36% y/y,which could add $3.8bn in q/q revs. We expect an op.profit range of $21.5-26.5bn, with $24bn midpoint flattish q/q, and slightly below Street at $25bn. Amazonguides profit conservatively, and historically the midpoint of profit guidance is down q/qin 3Q,but AwS acceleration should driveq/g profit growth when Amazon reports3QResults should highlight improving Al positioning; Buy Price Weremain constructive onAwS's improving Al positioning,whichshould be apparent in results that showAwSgrowth acceleration,backlog expansion(s1oobn of Anthropicbacklog in 2Q),positive Bedrock datapoints, and Trainium benefits to y/y margins. Wecontinue to see Amazon as a top Al beneficiary and reiterate our Buy rating witha s310PO.Risks are a potentially higher2026 capex outlook, 2Q margin pressure (SBC/PrimeDay), decel in 3Q revenues in outlook (Prime Day comps), and high 2Q AWS expectations. AfS: Alexa for ShoppingARR: Annual Recurring RevenueASCS:Amazon Supply Chain ServicesASIC:Application-Specific IntegratedCircuitEC2:Elastic Cloud ComputeGPU: Graphics Processing UnitSBC: Stock-based Compensation BofASecurities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page21 to 23.Analyst Certification on page19.PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 19. iQprofile"Amazon.comiQmethod s - Bus Performance* Internet/e-Commerce Amazon.com is one of the world's largest online retailers with a global brand and country specific sites in the U.S.,UK, Germany, France, Japan, Canada, China, Spain, Italy.Mexico and India. Amazon also owns several other onlineretailers and online properties including Zappos.com,Diapers.com, Woot.com, Twitch.com and others. Amazonalso operates Amazon Web Services (AWS), a leading cloud-based computing plaform for developers and enterprises,and Whole Foods Markets. Investment RationaleAmazon is an eCommerce and cloud computing market share leader that operates a leading fulfilment network anddata centerfootprint. Given strong assets and customerfocus, we think Amazon is well positioned to capitalize onthe global growth of eCommerce and enterprise demandfor Al capacity. Stock Data Key MetricsExhibit 1: For 2Q, we estimate revenue/EBIT of $198.8bn/$24.1bn, above Street at $196.8bn/$23.6bn Amazon reports after market close on 7/30. Top metrics beyond headline sales & GAAP operating profit will be AwS growth,AwS margins, incremental commentary on capex &returns on Al investments, backlog growth, and the 3Q outlook (tougher y/y Retail compscould be partially offset by AwS acceleration + pricing tailwinds). The midpoint ofAmazon's 2Q guide suggests 17% y/y growth, stable vs 1Q, but we think there is upsidegiven our expectation for an AwS beat & industrydata indicating eCommerce growthaccelerated vs 1Q. Ultimately,we believe the biggest driver of the stock continues to beexpectations for the Al opportunity and returns on capex, so AwS revenue growth andmargins are key focus areas. Backlog should be up $1oObn q/q on the Anthropic deal. However, based on investor conversations, we believe expectations could be around34%+ y/y growth given strong backlog growth, a growing contribution from Anthropic,incremental demand spurred by OpenAl's addition to Bedrock and 3rd party data. Formargins, Street is at 33.7%, down 40Obps q/q from