全球半导体资本设备：中国晶圆制造设备进口追踪（2026年6月）

China WFE Import Tracker (June 2026): YTD YoY -10%, June YoYflat, import gradually recovering We track monthly Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) imports to China through data fromChina Customs (link); this call provides an update to the June 2026 data (excel) and ouranalysis. June import was $3.4 billion, +57% MoM and +1% YoY. YTD YoY -10%, mainlydragged by Lithography (YTD YoY -18%) and Dry Etch (YTD YoY -14%).June imports backto flat YoY, and we expect 2H import to recover as memory WFE import should bemuch stronger. Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com June single month total WFE imports at USD 3.4bn, slightly higher than last yearaverage of $3.2bn. JuneYTD at USD 16bn, YoY -10%. Litho import was USD 842mn,YoY +3%, continued recovering from April’s historical low point and became flattishcompared to monthly average level in 2025. YTD’s weak import was mostly dragged byLithography due to supply shortage, YTD Litho import was USD 2.98bn, YoY-18%. Byregion, import from Singapore/Taiwan, China showed strong growth, YoY+25%/20%YTD. June YTD import from Singapore + US + Malaysia was USD 6.6bn, YoY+1%. YTDShanghai & Beijing import were USD 5.6/3.5bn, as the largest import regions, accountingfor 36%/22% share. David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Kai Zhang+852 2123 2665kai.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com June Litho imports of EUR 697Mn was up 196% MoM and 8% YoY.However, Q2 26Imports was down -24% QoQ and -9% YoY. Our model estimates that China sales will reachEUR 1.02Bn in Q2, down 14% QoQ and 32% YoY. This implies that China will represent16% of total system sales in Q2, slightly higher than the actual China system sales reportedby ASML of EUR 919Mn representing 14% of system sales. During Q2 results, ASMLreiterated that China revenue is expected to decline to 20% of total revenue in FY26,compared to 33% in FY25. While we also forecast China declining as a % of revenue,we believe China demand will remain solid over the next few years, driven by persistentlystrong investment in capacity expansion, particularly in advanced logic. ASML’s recent plansto expand DUV capacity by 30% over the next two years further reinforce our thesis. Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Carmine Milano, CFA+44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com Juho Hwang+81 3 6777 6980juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com For LRCX, the June data (3-month correlation) suggests Jun-Q China revenues woulddecrease ~24% QoQ, with China exposure landing at ~23% of total revenues basedon consensus revenue estimates.This appears at least directionally consistent withmanagement commentary that China exposure will decline sequentially in the June quarter. Jack Lin+852 2123 2683jack.lin@bernsteinsg.com For AMAT, the June data (2-month correlation) suggests Jul-Q China revenues wouldincrease ~29% QoQ, with China exposure landing at ~30% of total revenues basedon consensus revenue estimates.We note that management did not give guidance forChina revenues in the July quarter, but suggested that their China business would be flattishto slightly up in the calendar year. Continued on next page For KLAC, the June data (3-month correlation) suggests Jun-Q China revenues wouldincrease ~23% QoQ, with China exposure landing at ~28% of total revenues basedon consensus revenue estimates.Management didn’t provide guidance for their Chinarevenue exposure this quarter, but mentioned that overall China WFE will grow at a slowerrate than broader WFE this year. For TEL, our regression suggests TEL’s China revenue could be +7% YoY and +19%QoQ.Our 3-month regression implies slight upside to TEL’s JunQ revenue, trackingahead of consensus of +9% QoQ, and an implied China mix of 30% based on consensusestimates. For Kokusai, our regression suggests their China revenue could be +37% YoY and+86% QoQ.Our 3-month regression implies upside to consensus of +18% QoQ, and animplied China contribution of 44%. For Screen, our regression suggests their China revenue could be -45% YoY and-71% QoQ.Our 3-month regression implies downside to consensus of -14% QoQ, and animplied China contribution of 16%. For Advantest, our regression suggests their China revenue could be +26% YoY and-13% QoQ.Our 3-month regression implies downside to consensus of +2% QoQ, and animplied China contribution of 15%. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS NAURA (Outperform, CNY 680.00): As the domestic WFE leader, NAURA has the broadest product portfolio coveringDeposition (PVD, CVD), Dry Etch (ICP), Thermo Processes, and Cleaning, as well as a more diverse client base covering leadinglogic, DRAM, NAND players, benefiting from the WFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain. AMEC (Outperform, CNY 500.00): Primarily focused on Dry Etch (CCP, ICP) wit