全球半导体资本设备：实现AI愿景需要多少晶圆制造设备

Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment: How much WFE do weneed to reach AI nirvana? Semicap stocks have had a volatile run recently. While many of the names are now actuallyin correction territory (our US coverage off ~30% from recent peaks;) the group is stillup >80% YTD (with heavily expanded valuations) with bulls and bears alike fighting themomentum unwind and the question of what is priced in while simultaneously trying toanswer the longer term view of the space as a continued proxy for further AI datacenterbuildouts (which if they happen will presumably require a substantial amount of added chipcapacity and hence tooling). Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Both the YTD run and the recent sell-off beg the question of exactly how much additionalWFE might be required from here depending on your view of AI, and what might be pricedin at current levels as investors wrestle with the choice of taking profits or doublingdown. Today’s note attempts to answer the question, translating scenarios for future GWdatacenter buildouts into required WFE spend, and examining implications for our stocks. Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com While recent performance and sentiment has been volatile, the demand environmentappears to remain supportive, with datacenter pipeline activity growing hugely, farexceeding current footprints, with many 10’s (or even hundreds?) of GW supposedly set tocome online over time. Our math suggests each incremental GW/year vs current levels willlikely require on the order of ~50K incremental WSPM across advanced logic, DRAM/HBM,and NAND/storage, suggesting potential for sizable further positive revisions to equipmentoutlook from here. Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Carmine Milano, CFA+44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com In fact, while we used to look at a ~$200B WFE market as “aspirational,” the industrywill probably get into that ballpark next year, with spending approaching or exceeding~$300B+ seemingly doable under plausible assumptions (say, building out capabilityto add an incremental 50GW annually vs current levels by the end of the decade?). Infact, substantially larger spending could be potentially plausible as well in higher GWdeployment scenarios, assuming the semicap industry could keep pace. Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com Juho Hwang+81 3 6777 6980juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com A ~50 GW/year incremental addition scenario would put our (U.S.) semicap stocks tradingin the mid-teens to low 20’s P/FE a couple of years out with substantial upside to currentStreet numbers; 75 GW/year incremental would put them in the low to mid-teens P/FE(doubling current consensus EPS), with 100 GW/year incremental suggesting valuations ator below 10x (and more than 150% upside to current consensus). April Li+1 917 344 8339april.li@bernsteinsg.com Phoebe Sun+1 917 344 8481phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com Hence, if one remains positive on the general trajectory of AI buildouts over the next severalyears it is not hard to argue for further upside from the group even at current levels. Weremain positive on semicap as a category as a result; in particular while we like all of ournames we remain drawn especially to AMAT given much of the incremental wafer additionsappear likely to be DRAM/HBM (where AMAT has the highest exposure). BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS AMAT (Outperform, $525.00):Exposure to key inflections is strong and valuation vs peers remains attractive. LRCX (Outperform, $340.00): The company is benefiting from key inflections (GAA, packaging, HBM, NAND upgrades) andCY26/27commentary seems supportive. KLAC (Outperform, $197.50 PT):Amid positive WFE trends KLAC posseses structural growth drivers, a strong and durablecompetitive position, lower China replacement risk, and disciplined capital allocation, warranting premium valuation, in our view. ASML: Outperform, PT: EUR 2,500.00.We expect ASML to deliver solid growth over the next five years, supported by risingcapex in DRAM and advanced logic. We value ASML using a target PE of 40x, and applying it to our Q5–8 EPS of EUR 62.6translates in our TP at EUR 2,500. We reiterate our Outperform rating and top pick. For ASML’s U.S. listing, we convert this usingthe EUR/USD exchange rate, which yields a price target of USD 2,859.00. Tokyo Electron: Outperform, PT=¥59,200.TEL is the #4 SPE supplier globally and the biggest Japanese SPE supplier withmajor presence in 6 product segments. It is expected to gain share and expand margins with competitive pricing after yendepreciation. Kokusai: Outperform, PT=¥8,240.00.Kokusai is the leader in batch ALD (atomic level deposition), which should see moreadoption in advanced nodes especially GAA (gate-all-ar