美国固定收益周报：策略更新

US Fixed Income Weekly Strategy Update Matthew RaskinStrategist+1-212-250-1741 This publication is a compilation of key research reports published over the pastweek. The Extel Global Fixed Income Research survey is open through July 24. If youhave valued our research this year, we would be very grateful for your 5-star vote.Information on how to vote and links to pages highlighting recent work can befoundhere. Steven Zeng, CFAStrategist+1-212-250-9373 Andrew FuStrategist+1-212-250-1743 Fed hike pricing for the July FOMC meeting shot up to near 50-50 odds followinghawkish commentary from Governor Waller early this week, though this quicklyreversed following the softer-than-expected June CPI print. Even before theprint, we had viewed aJuly hike as unlikely given the June SEP and moves ininflation pricing since. Our baseline forecast has the Fed hiking two times thisyear, though we view current market pricing of the Fed path as broadly fair.Uncertainty in inflation fixings has risen,due to geopolitics and the large outliersin the June CPI data, which led us to exit our real yield steepener trade with 7bpsof profit. On swap spreads, large declines in AI-related momentum stocks inrecent weeks appear to be spilling over into long-dated swap spreads, though wethinkthe move reflects positioning and is not indicative of underlyingfundamentals (see “Swap spreads and the KOSPI: an unexpected relationship”).We maintain a moderate spread-widening bias and favor the 2s-10s spread curvesteepener given the upcoming rise in bill supply which could pressure front-endspreads lower. Bill auction sizes continue to be increased as tariff refunds rampup, placingupward pressure on funding rates. Figure1:Key US Rates Views 17 July 2026US Fixed Income Weekly Table of Contents Fixed Income Blog...............................................................................................................................................................................4Notes from our trip to Singapore, Mainland China, and Hong Kong......................................................................................4Bond Market Strategy.........................................................................................................................................................................6Distracting Sustainability Analysis...............................................................................................................................................6The Case for a 5s20s Flattener.....................................................................................................................................................9Macro portfolio update.................................................................................................................................................................10Fed Notes............................................................................................................................................................................................11Task force takes: #3 AI's impact on productivity and jobs.....................................................................................................11Fixed Income Charts of the Week...................................................................................................................................................27Swap spreads and the KOSPI: an unexpected relationship...................................................................................................28US CPI front-end & downside risks............................................................................................................................................29Leverage ratio relief or reserve requirement pain for ASW....................................................................................................30More surprises in store.................................................................................................................................................................31OAT/Bund:the simple spread understates the risk premium currentlyembedded in OATs........................................................................................................................................................................33Podzept Podcast................................................................................................................................................................................35Macro MATTers: A conversation with Bill English on Fed communications......................................................................35Webinar Replay..................................................................................................................................................................................37DB Heads of Trading & Research/Strategy...................................................................................................