美国固定收益策略周报

The USFixed IncomeWeekly 11 April 2025 Economics–Tariffs: show me the moneyWe are skeptical that tariff revenues will offset the cost of the anticipated fiscal package. Firms and consumers are likely to rotate away from China. TheDaily TreasuryStatement released on April 24 will give us a first read on whether tariff collection ismatching the figures announced. Lighter tariff revenues would mean less stagflation. Fixed Income StrategyUnited StatesCross Product Fixed Income ResearchBofAS US Rates–Bonds now beautiful Chris FlanaganFI/MBS/CLO StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 6119christopher.flanagan@bofa.com US rates demonstrated extreme dislocations in a tumultuous week. US Treasury liquidity& investor confidence is being tested. Recommend 2s5s30s fly on delayed Fed cuts &supply/demand imbalance, re-set target on 30y spread short, favor short 1y inflation. Mark Cabana, CFARates StrategistBofAS+1 646 743 7013mark.cabana@bofa.com Securitized Products–Aftershocks = BuyOpportunitiesLiberation Day = financial market earthquake experience, magnitude enormous; we are now in the aftershock phase. 90-day pause = recession risks have diminishedsubstantially = additional credit spread widening unlikely. Recent MBS/SP credit spreadwidening= buy opportunities; choppy bottomis in/being established. Neha KhodaCredit StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 9656neha.khoda@bofa.com Investment Grade Credit–Flight to safety flows in bondsHY and loans reported largest weekly outflows since at least 2020, while outflow from Henry Navarrete BrooksMBS/CMBS StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 9110hbrooks2@bofa.comSee Team Page for List of Analysts HG was largest since 2022. That was offset by a large +$15.95bn inflow intogovtbondfunds. HG:-$6.99bn, HY:-$10.00bn, Loans:-$5.49bn, stocks: +$33.26bn. High Yield Credit–Hunting for opportunities HY retraces post tariff pause. We screen for opportunities likely to see reversal as macroconditions change. Welike HY BBs, large liquid instruments, and fixed coupons. Weexpect HY to compress against IG, BBs against BBBs. Table of Contents Municipals–A week unlike any other: the tariffs "Liberation Day" tariffs impacted the bond markets this week, including munis'. From M-W, 10yr AAA yields rose 92bp. On Thu, yields retraced >50% of those cuts as investorsscooped up cheap bonds. We view bipartisan letter to House Ways &Means chairmansupporting muni tax exemption as another positivesignal from DC. Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience inrelevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.This document is intended for BofA Securities institutional investors only. It may not bedistributed to financial advisors, retail clients or retail prospects.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investorsshould consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page31to32.Analyst Certification on page30.12815644 Overview Henry Navarrete BrooksBofAShbrooks2@bofa.com Chris FlanaganBofASchristopher.flanagan@bofa.com Total returns this week were negative across fixed income products (Exhibit 1). On ayear-to-date (YTD) total return basis, Treasury bonds, TIPS, and CMBS outperformed allother fixedincome sectors tracked here (+1.86%, +1.86%, +1.82% respectively). After the elections, many investors were of the view that the Trump Administrationwould pursue deficit reduction. Yet the budget resolution adopted by both the Senateand the House could be massively expansionary: the Committee for a ResponsibleFederal Budget estimates that by FY2034, it could drive the deficit up to nearly 9% andwould increase the debt bynearly $7tn relative to current law. What happened to fiscalresponsibility? That's where tariffs enter the equation. Last week we argued that it probably wasn't justa coincidence that the Senate unveiled its package on April 2. Based on the variousmeasures that have been announced (and walked back) since President Trump tookoffice, we estimate that the effective tariff rate would rise from 2.3% before theelections to about 25% if there is no shift in import patterns. This would increase annualtariffrevenues by over $800bn. Key to all the latest market volatility is policy uncertainty, with the Bloomberg policyuncertainty index (BBUNTPGD) our preferred high frequency gauge of this uncertainty.We think chances are good that it peaked this Wednesdayat 19.3. If true, we think thisalso suggests that VIX has already peaked, at a staggering 52.3 on Tuesday; likewise, HYCDX likely peaked at 475 on Tuesday. This peak in HY CDX is consistent with theanalysis we presented in March 14 report titled