美国固定收益策略周报

The USFixed IncomeWeekly 15 June 2026 Economics–June FOMC preview: park the busThe Fed should be firmly on hold: no easing bias & dot plot flat for 2026. Warsh will likely downplay inflation concerns. May CPI data in line with below-consensus forecast. Fixed Income StrategyUnited StatesCross Product US Rates– Pressure cooker Warsh likely reads hawkish, room for markets to shift toward hikes as Warsh pops"political" bubble; stay paid 2y. Inflation risks skew higher; we hold front-end inflationflatteners. Tighter liquidity should push Jul SOFR/FF lower. Fixed Income ResearchBofASChris FlanaganFI/MBS/CLO StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 6119christopher.flanagan@bofa.com The Flow Show–Give Ps a chance 3Ps of Positioning, Profits, Policy...chips off table until FCI tightening ends July 29thFOMC. Best contrarian "peace" winners...consumer, REITs, Europe, crypto, gold,EM FX Mark Cabana, CFARates StrategistBofAS+1 646 743 7013mark.cabana@bofa.com Securitized Products–A series of close calls Reacceleration meets event risk: pressure builds within narrow channels. Tight ranges,faster reactions: spread stability holds, but event catalysts could drive quick marketmoves. Carry-driven securitized markets: rate vol falls on Iran hopes; quality, structure,duration drive returns Neha KhodaCredit StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 9656neha.khoda@bofa.com Investment Grade– Positioning for Iran resolution Alvin FungABS StrategistBofAS+1 646 855-9091alvin.fung@bofa.comSee Team Page for List of Analysts Reaching a deal on Iran would be positive for spreads. Lower risk of an energy priceshock should support the cyclical sector that underperformed since the start of the war. High Yield– Higher rates, more AI-capex, lower fragilityCredit is less exposed to rate shock vs 2022, with shorter duration,higher yields, cleanerpositioning. AI capex is the main supply swing factor, offsetting weaker LevFin M&A. Municipals– Sideways through summer Weexpect a range bound summer with curve flattening reemerging, alongside tightspreads. The exemption should remain intact but there could be other credit impacts. Mark your calendars Join us on June 25, 2026 for the BofA Securities US Fixed Income Mid-Year Update andOutlook Virtual Conference 2026. The conference will feature BofA Securities leadersdiscussing the fixed income outlook for the second half of 2026. Please contact yoursales representatives to request an invitation. Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may giverise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.This document is intended for BofA Securities institutional investors only. It may not bedistributed to financial advisors, retail clients or retail prospects.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware thatthe firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 38 to 40.12983571 The CIO summary Chris FlanaganBofAS christopher.flanagan@bofa.com The global backdrop is increasingly defined by persistent inflation and resilient growth,reinforcing a late-cycle“higher-for-longer”regime that is now showing clearer signs ofreacceleration. Inflation pressures are proving more structural than transitory, driven bysupply-side dynamics tied to geopolitics, energy, and supply chains, while core servicesremain firm even as goods prices soften. At the same time, headline indicators appearmore contained, masking underlying pressures that are gradually broadening. The keyimplication is that policy may be more accommodative than intended, with the Fedeffectively easing as real rates decline, even as inflation remains above target. Thisdynamic raises the bar for rate cuts and introduces a growing risk that policy remainsanchored by inflation persistence rather than demand weakness. Rates markets are increasingly reflecting this tension. Yields remain elevated and range-bound, with the curve biased flatter as markets reprice toward a prolonged higher-rateregime and a diminished probability of cuts. While geopolitical developments—includingthe potential for a US–Iran resolution—have contributed to some easing in yields andrate volatility, the broader backdrop still limits meaningful downside in rates absent aclear inflation inflection. Real yields continue to anchor the environment, supported byfirm growth and investment trends, while duration remains challenged and secondary tocarry and curve positioning. Overall, rates are functioning less as a one-directionaladjustment mechanism and more as a constrained channel within tighter trading ranges,with sensitivity to both policy and event-driven catalysts. Flow