Morning Insight: July 14, 2026

Morning Insight:July 14, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Fuel Oil:Geopolitical tensions may escalate again, reopening the windowfor higher valuations. Over the weekend, signs emerged that negotiationsbetween the United States and Iran had broken down, raising thepossibility of renewed conflict. Iran once again announced the closure ofthe Strait of Hormuz. This implies not only that the remaining floatingstorage within the strait can no longer be released, but also that theprospect of refineries in the region increasing production to offsetsupply shortageshas diminished further. As a result, high-sulfur fueloil supply from the Middle East is likely to remain constrained. Meanwhile, Russian refineries have continued to come under Ukrainiandrone attacks, with more than 4 million barrels per day of refiningcapacity remaining offline. Against the backdrop of another Strait ofHormuz closure, this further intensifies the global shortage of high-sulfur fuel oil supply. These developments are expected to continuesupporting high-sulfur fuel oil valuations and provide a significanttailwind for FU futures, which rely heavily on imported cargoes forphysical delivery. Overall, FUfutures are expected to remain on abullish trajectory. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China has set a goal of raising total retail sales of consumer goodsto around 60 trillion yuan (roughly 8.8 trillion U.S. dollars) by 2030and further strengthening consumption's role in driving economic growth,according to a government plan on expanding consumption during the 15thFive-Year Plan period (2026-2030). The plan, which was recently approved by the State Council, also aims tosignificantly increase the ratio of household consumption to GDP andachieve relatively fast growth in total goods and services consumption.The plan outlines other targets in areas including optimizing theconsumption structure, continuously improving consumption capacity,enhancing the supply of goods and services, and significantly improvingthe consumption environment. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), China's consumermarket had achieved remarkable results, with total retail sales ofconsumer goods reaching 50.1 trillion yuan in 2025, surpassing the 50-trillion-yuan mark for the first time. The average contribution rate of final consumption expenditure toeconomic growth during 2021-2025 stood at 58.8 percent, up 10 percentagepoints from the previous five-year period. The 15th Five-Year Plan period will see China's consumer marketdevelopment enter a critical stage of both scale expansion and qualityimprovement, with a solid consumption foundation, sound upgradingmomentum and abundant innovation vitality in consumption scenarios.In its approval of the plan, the State Council stresses efforts toincrease domestic demand, adopt specific actions to boost consumption,expand services consumption, upgrade goods consumption and enrichbusiness forms, among others. It also urges local governments at all levels to make consumptionexpansion a key task in their economic and social development during the15th Five-Year Plan period, while implementing the plan's objectives andpolicy measures in line with their local conditions. (Source: Xinhua) 2. Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Monday convened a symposium featuringexperts and entrepreneurs to seek their opinions on the current economicsituation and economic work in the next stage. Participants said China's economy had remained generally stable in thefirst half of 2026, with new growth drivers expanding at a faster paceand the momentum for high-quality development continuing to build despiteexternal uncertainties. After hearing their remarks, Li, also a member of the Standing Committeeof the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China CentralCommittee, said China's economy is transitioning across the board towardhigh-quality development, with increasingly solid foundations for itslong-term sound development. Li stressed that economic work in the second half of the year bearsdirectly on achieving the annual development goals and getting the 15thFive-Year Plan period (2026-2030) off to a good start. He called for maintaining strategic resolve in pursuing high-qualitydevelopment, intensifying counter-cyclical adjustment, making full andeffective use of existing policies, and studying and preparingincremental policies in advance to consolidate and expand the momentum ofsteady and improving economic performance. Li urged systematic efforts to unleash the potential of domestic demandby expanding the supply of quality services, combining investment inphysical assets with investment in human capital, advancing majorinfrastructure networks and improving public