China (PRC) | Technology
PCB/CCL Update: Continued Trend ofDivergent Earnings by AI/Non-AI Players
We expect AI PCB players to continue outperforming non-AI players, whichare facing surging materials costs (7628/FR-4 price already more thandouble since end-3Q25) and sluggish demand, while high-end materials'price hikes have been disciplined (+10-40% YTD on >=M4 CCL). Somepreliminary Q2 result supporting this trend is stronger profit growth byFounder/Delton. Price pass-through likely continues to be smooth for AIPCB despite potential further cost hikes.
Earnings performance gap likely to widen between AI/non-AI PCB players...While thedemand for high-end PCB driven by AI infrastructure buildout remains robust, we observepersistent pressures on conventional (i.e., non-AI) PCB makers from 1) surging cost forupstream materials due to capacity displacement (vendors keep switching their capacity tohigh-end products which generally consume more capacity, leading to supply shortage forconventional materials); 2) sluggish end-market demand to constrain price pass-through.For example, 7628 series as a typical E-glass cloth has already seen ~1.2x price hikesince end-3Q25. According to Kingboard, it has already lifted its price quote of FR-4 asthe most commonly used CCL by ~1.3x within the same period. While other CCL vendorsmay not have raised the price as fast as this, we can see the price pass-through forconventional materials is proceeding smoothly, likely due to greater bargaining power fromhigher industry concentration vs downstream PCB customers and pulling in of orders amidstlean downstream inventory levels. Some PCB manufacturers have attempted to transfer theincremental costs to end customers; however, due to relatively low industry concentration,this practice typically has a considerable impact on their sales volume. Conversely, the pricehikes for high-end materials have been relatively disciplined, as we observe just 10-40% priceincrease YTD on high-speed CCL (>=M4) by major vendors, with very limited price hikes oncertain large customers. Therefore, we believe the gap in financial performance between AI/non-AI PCB players will continue to widen over the coming quarters.
...And to be clearer in upcoming Q2 results.Analyzing 1Q26's data from listed Chinese PCBcompanies (Table 2 on next page) and excluding long-tail players (market cap