PCB/CCL更新：潜在Kyber/背板延迟的预计影响

China (PRC) | Technology PCB/CCL Update: Estimated Impact fromPotential Kyber/Backplane Delay The potential delay of Kyber/backplane PCB for Rubin Ultra may create5%/8% downside on AI PCB/CCL TAM in 2027 vs our original forecasts andmay lead to another 11%/16% downside in 2028 if Kyber is further delayedor canceled. R&D on spec/materials upgrade is ongoing (M9/10/PTFE/CoWoP). -ve for overall PCB supply chain, though we expect upstream tokeep outperforming downstream, driven by ongoing near-term price hike,while +ve for copper cable makers. Potentialdelay on Kyber/backplane PCB structure due to intra-rack connectivitychallenges.Our recent channel checks suggest that, due to the sophistication of orthogonalbackplane PCB as a replacement of cable cartridge for intra-rack connectivity, which wasoriginally targeted to be adopted on Rubin Ultra in 2027, Kyber structure will likely to be pushedout to at least 2028. The supply chain began to witness such possibility since May, and inrecent few weeks, the absence of Kyber in 2027 has become a highly likely event, which meansRubin Ultra in 2027 will stick to Oberon structure (i.e., NVL72). The supply chain is strivingfor realizing the Kyber on the new variant of Rubin Ultra in 2028, but the challenges are stilloutstanding even for 2-canister design within a rack (each canister contains 18 trays) as asimplified solution of original 4-canister, meaning low visibility on crystallization. The worst-case scenario here would be the cancellation of the Kyber in the end. 5%/8% downside for AI PCB/CCL TAM in 2027 vs our original forecasts; Another 11%/16%downside in 2028 if no Kyber eventually.Previously, we estimated AI PCB/CCL TAM(including AI server, high-speed switch and high-speed optical transceiver) at US$6-7/2-3bn in2025, and forecast it to reach US$12/5bn in 2026, US$25/12bn in 2027, and US$41/21bn in2028, driven by both spec (higher-layer and more sophisticated design) and materials (fromM8 to M9/10/PTFE) upgrade. If the delay of Kyber/backplane PCB is confirmed, we expect AIPCB/CCL TAM to be reduced by 5%/8% in 2027 compared to our original forecasts. Thoughthe impact seems limited, if it goes beyond 2028 or even gets canceled, we expect a furtherdownside of 11%/16% in 2028. Such change will inevitably bring about less growth upsidefor the entire PCB supply chain in coming years and negative market sentiment. Despite this,we see the R&D on spec/materials upgrade is still going on, e.g., switch board/midplane maymigrate to M9/10/PTFE in 2027, CoWoP is still targeted to penetrate earliest in 2027, etc. Thus,the trend of ongoing dollar content increase on PCB as a core scale-up interconnection solutionin AI infrastructure has not seen structural hamper. Implication on AI supply chain: -ve for PCB supply chain while upstream may continueto outperform downstream; +ve for copper cable players, thanks to extended lifecycle ofOberon.The potentially lowered TAM may result in certain EPS revision on PCB players,bringing headwinds in stock price performance at any time. But within PCB supply chain,we see ongoing price hike on upstream materials, esp fiberglass cloth and CCL, driven byindustrywide supply tightness, and most of those materials vendors are easier to transferthe rising cost and earn extra profits from each price hike compared to PCB makers at thisstage. Thus, while it is difficult to predict absolute stock price movement, we think it likely forupstream names to keep outperforming downstream PCB names in near term. On the otherhand, the extended adoption of Oberon structure will likely benefit copper cable vendors, in ourview, as the threat of being replaced by PCB for intra-rack interconnection could be mitigated,creating more upside for earnings in next few years. Source: Prismark, Jefferies estimates Jacky He * | Equity Analyst+852 3743 8084 | jacky.he@jefferies.com Edison Lee, CFA * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8009 | edison.lee@jefferies.com Nick Cheng * | Equity Analyst+852 3743 8750 | nick.cheng@jefferies.com Matt Ma * | Equity Analyst852 3767 1109 | matt.ma@jefferies.com Annie Ping, CFA, FRM * | Equity Associate+852 3767 1273 | annie.ping@jefferies.com We would like to thank Connie Yan, employee of Evalueserve Inc., for providing research support services to our preparation of this report. Company Valuation/Risks NVIDIA Corporation Price Target: $300 implies 21x our CY28E EPS of $14.14. Risks: •Emerging competitive threats from INTC, AMD, and internally designed ASICs from Hyperscalers take share and pressure ASPs.•Slowing datacenter capital spending from Enterprises and Hyperscalers.•Slower-than-expected ramp of Automotive platform. Analyst Certification: I, Jacky He, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific rec