世界经济展望更新2026年7月

00:03:28 To visit IMF dot org where you can download the latest world economic outlook updatealong with other materials that may be very useful for your reporting. But before we begin,let me briefly explain what we mean by an update for those who may be less familiar withthe world economic outlook at publication cycle, we publish two full editions each year InApril and In October, which include comprehensive country coverage and medium termprojections. 00:03:57 In January and July, we published an update which refreshes the outlook for a subset ofeconomies rather than for the full membership. You will find the list of economies includedin this update on page 14 of the report. As always, today's update presents our latest globalgrowth projections, assesses the risks surrounding our baseline, and outlines our key policyrecommendations. 00:04:23 Let me also note that yesterday we announced the appointment of sylvanna, 10 raro, as thenext IMF economy counselor and director of the research department. We look forward towelcoming her to the fund when she joins us on august 10TH. But in the meantime, to walkus through the latest world economic outlook update, we are pleased to be joined by petyacueva Brooks, deputy director of the research department and the nisigan division chief,also with the research department. 00:04:53 Petya will begin with some opening remarks summarizing the key messages of the update,after which we' be open the floor to your questions. Without further ado, petya, the floor isyours. 00:05:04 Good morning and thank you, Jose. Thank you all for joining us. The global outlook is beingshaped by two powerful forces pulling in opposite directions, the lingering effects of theenergy shock from the war in the Middle East, and a technology driven investment boom. 00:05:21 Developments overnight illustrate the uncertainty and risks that surround the outlook sofar. The net effect of these forces vary significantly across countries, depending on theirexposure to the war and their position in the technology value chain. 00:05:38 We are projecting global growth of 3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 27 broadly unchanged fromApril on a cumulative basis. In effect, we expect a Vs shaped recovery weaker growth thisyear relative to our prewar forecast, followed by a rebound next year. 00:05:58 On inflation, the picture is somewhat less encouraging. Global headline inflation has beenrevised up to 4.7% this year, while our core inflation forecast is broadly unchanged. 00:06:11Put simply, the disinflation trend that has been in place since early 2024 has stalled. 00:06:18 Nevertheless, the world economy has weathered the shock from the war better than fearedso far, with limited evidence of second round effects. 00:06:27 A larger spike in oil prices was avoided thanks to inventory drawdowns, expandedproduction outside the gulf and actions to help soften oil demand.And a steady rise in therenewable energy share, combined with lower energy intensity than just a few years ago,has also made many economies more resilient.And while financial conditions tightenedsharply in early April, they have since eased and remained supportive by historicalstandards. 00:06:56 Now, our forecast assumes that the strait of Hormuz begins reopening in mid July withconditions normalizing to the prewar state by march of 2027. 00:07:08 Commodity price assumptions are based on market pricing as of June 10TH, which impliedan average oil price of 89 dollars a barrel for 2026. 00:07:20 Though I'll note that the futures curve since shifted down a bit, although of coursedevelopments go in the other direction this morning. 00:07:29 We also assume policy and geopolitical uncertainty remain elevated throughout 2027 andthat The AI driven technology cycle moderates from here with no exogenous boost toproductivity. 00:07:44 Now turning to the risks to this outlook, they remain tilted to the downside and there' is a lot of uncertainty. 00:07:52 A renewed escalation in the conflict could reignite commodity price volatility, tightenfinancial conditions, strain policy buffers and worsen food insecurity in low incomecountries. 00:08:05 A market correction driven by a reassessment of AI profitability is another key downsiderisk.On the upside,faster AI adoption could lift growth,and a swifter than expectedctnormalization of trade through the strait of Hormuz would also be a positive surprise. 00:08:23 Now, turning to policy recommendations, central banks should remain focused on pricestability, though the appropriate response will vary by country, depending on howcommodity prices, the Tech driven demand and inflation expectations interact. 00:08:37 Now, many governments have deployed fiscal tools in response to the war, so far at limitedcost. 00:08:45 But as the shock fades, energy related fiscal support should be unwound, and rebuildingfiscal space remains essential. Given elevated debt over the medium term, advancingstructural r