世界经济展望2026年4月：战争阴影下的全球经济

WORLDECONOMICOUTLOOK Global Economyin the Shadow of War INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND WORLDECONOMICOUTLOOK Global Economyin the Shadow of War Cover and Design: IMF CSF Creative Solutions Division Cataloging-in-Publication Data IMF Library Names: International Monetary Fund.Title: World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)Other titles: WEO | Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund) | World economic andfinancial surveys.Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 1980- | Semiannual | Someissues also have thematic titles. | Began with issue for May 1980. | 1981-1984: Occasionalpaper / International Monetary Fund, 0251-6365 | 1986-: World economic and financialsurveys, 0256-6877.Identifiers: ISSN 0256-6877 (print) | ISSN 1564-5215 (online)Subjects: LCSH: Economic development—Periodicals. | International economic relations—Periodicals. | Debts, External—Periodicals. | Balance of payments—Periodicals. |International finance—Periodicals. | Economic forecasting—Periodicals.Classification: LCC HC10.W79 HC10.80 ISBN 979-8-22904-275-8 (English Paper)979-8-22904-283-3 (English ePub)979-8-22904-278-9 (English Web PDF) Disclaimer:TheWorld Economic Outlook(WEO) is a survey by the IMF staff pub-lished twice a year, in the spring and fall. The WEO is prepared by the IMF staff andhas benefited from comments and suggestions by Executive Directors following theirdiscussion of the report on April 6, 2026. The views expressed in this publication arethose of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s ExecutiveDirectors or their national authorities. Recommended citation:International Monetary Fund. 2026.World Economic Outlook:Global Economy in the Shadow of War. Washington, DC. April. Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail:International Monetary Fund, Publication ServicesP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USATel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail: publications@IMF.orgbookstore.IMF.orgelibrary.IMF.org ErrataApril 22, 2026 This web version of the WEO has been updated to reflect the following changes to the version published online on April 8, 2026(Chapter 2): - Chapter 2, Figure 2.1, page 48: The data have been updated.- Chapter 2, page 56, last paragraph: The third sentence was replaced by “Given the average size and length of booms in peacetime,this pattern is consistent with a multiplier of defense spending above 1.” Assumptions and Conventionsvii Further Informationix Preface xii Executive Summary Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies Global Economy Tested Again1Recent Developments: Continued Resilience and Rising Fragility1Growth and Disinflation, Interrupted4Risks to the Outlook: Downside Dominates14Policies: Addressing the Current Shock, Preparing for the Next17Box 1.1. Explaining the Resilience of Global Growth in 202521Box 1.2. Services Trade: An Emerging Engine for Global Growth23Box 1.3. Risk Assessment Surrounding the Reference Forecast25Commodity Special Feature: Market Developments and the Economics of Rare Earths31References45 Chapter 2. Defense Spending: Macroeconomic Consequences and Trade-Offs Introduction47The Macroeconomics of Defense Spending: A Primer50Defense Spending Booms53Macroeconomic Consequences of Defense Spending: Empirical Evidence55Macroeconomic Consequences of Defense Spending: Model Simulations60Conclusions and Policy Recommendations63Box 2.1. Scaling Up Defense Spending: The Case of Poland65Box 2.2. Spillovers from Defense Spending66References67 Chapter 3. The Macroeconomics of Conflicts and Recovery69 Introduction69Macroeconomics of Conflict and Recovery: A Primer72Macroeconomic Dynamics during Conflicts73Macroeconomic Dynamics after Conflicts77Summary and Policy Recommendations85Box 3.1. Wartime Economic Management in Ukraine86Box 3.2. Dealing with Postconflict Stabilization: Lessons from African Experiences87Box 3.3. Policies for Refugees’ Return and Integration88References89 Statistical Appendix Assumptions91What’s New92Data and Conventions92Country Notes93Classification of Economies96General Features and Composition of Groups in theWorld Economic OutlookClassification96Table A. Classification byWorld Economic OutlookGroups and Their Shares inAggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 202598Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup99Table C. European Union99Table D. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Sourceof Export Earnings100Table E. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position,Heavily Indebted Poor Countries, and Per Capita Income Classification101Table F. Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods103Table G. Key Data Documentation104Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions underlying the Projections for Selected Economies114List of Tables118Output (Tables A1–A4)119Inflation (Tables A5–A7)126Financial Policies (Table A8)131Foreign Trade (Table A9)132Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12)13