2026年世界经济展望：市场环境波谲云诡，全球经济有望平稳增长

Steady Global Growth Expected Despite Volatile Conditions January 2026 *Translated from the original Japanese version released on December 18, 2025 (slightly modified) Affordability crisis, erosion of the international economic order, the expandingAIeconomy ①Affordability crisis(pp. 4-9) In the United States, the "affordability crisis," triggered by the rising cost ofliving, has developed into a top political issue. Changing policy priorities couldforce policy course corrections, or policies could also drift in the absence ofeffective solutions. It is important to note that affordability issues could also leadto similar policy course corrections in countries other than the United States. ②Erosion of the internationaleconomic order ⚫Growing protectionism⚫Restructuring trade andinvestment flows ②Erosion of the international economic order(pp. 10-16) The erosion of the international economic order, which was already evident, hasaccelerated in response to the US tariff measures. While the short-termbacklash fromthe 2025 frontloadingis occurring, countries and companies areseeking ways to adapt to the new environment. Structural changes in trade andinvestment flows will encourage survival of the fittest in a new competitiveenvironment. Global Economy (p. 3)Steadygrowth despite structural changes and downside risks ③The ExpandingAIEconomy(pp. 17-20) Artificial intelligence is already boosting the current economy in the form oflarge-scale capital investment and growth expectations in the stock market,even without further development. Its impact is wide-ranging, including theconstruction of data centers, the spread of cross-sectional applications, and itsimpact on the labor and electricity markets. Meanwhile, the risk of anAI bubbleis oneof the most important factors that will determine the future ups anddowns of the stock market . Global economy to grow resilient despite volatile conditionsGrowth rates of major countries and regions ▽RealGDPgrowth forecast (YoY, %) <Summary> •The globaleconomy isexpected to maintain3%growth in2026 ,despite the ongoing risk such as the affordability crisis and the erosionof the international economic order. •One factor supporting the growth of the global economyis theaccumulation of agile responses by countries and companies that arefending off headwinds arising from global fluidity: ✓Many countries are not retaliating against Trump's tariffs, but areinstead moving to diversify their trading partners and expanddomestic demand.✓Many companies are responding flexibly to the worseningbusiness environment and implementing reforms to increaseprofits.✓The disruption will prompt supply chain restructuring and lead toincreased inventory.✓Europe has eased fiscal discipline and shifted to a significantincrease in defense spending.✓In India andASEAN,consumer markets and infrastructureinvestment are expanding steadily, contributing more to globaleconomic growth than the total of developed countries.✓Global inflation and the excess money are pushing up stockprices.✓AI-related investment is expanding rapidly in the U.S. Theeconomic effects ofAI-related tradesuch assemiconductorswillbe spreadingto countries like ASEAN as well (1) the worsening affordability crisis which can lead to indecisivemonetary and fiscal policies, (2) trade and investment disruptions dueto the further expansion of protectionism,and (3)uncertaintysurroundingAI investmentcan hinder the global economy’s growth. What is theaffordability crisis? As this becomes a political issue, it can lead to policy corrections and confusion. Despite efforts to suppress voter dissatisfaction, policies tend to be ad hoc and expansionary in the absence of effective solutions ⚫A growing tendency toward ad hoc measures continues,but a breakthrough is difficult: As addressing the affordability crisis becomes a priority forthe administration, policy resources are likely to be directed toward households in the form of price control measures and income compensation. Asdecision-making becomes even more ad hoc, it is difficult to foresee policies large enough to alleviate dissatisfaction. The affordability problem stems fromthe long-standing structure of the US economy, making a short-term solution difficult. In addition, already implemented Trump administration policies, suchas tariffs andOBBB*, have exacerbated the affordability problem, making the road to restoring support for the administration difficult. ⚫Fiscal policy will be expansionary overall: The normal cycle which shows fiscal stimulus in time of recessions and fiscal consolidation in booms isbecoming hardly seen, and a tendency toward a more giveaway-styled fiscal policy will become stronger. Given the difficulty of implementing targetedpolicies for middle-and low-income earners, excessive stimulation of overall demand could lead to a chain reaction of inflation, and if the market judgesfiscal policy to be lax, there is a risk of interest rates rising sharply. Poli