2025年10月《世界经济展望》：全球经济不稳定，前景依然黯淡

WORLDECONOMICOUTLOOK Global Economy in Flux,Prospects Remain Dim INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND WORLDECONOMICOUTLOOK Global Economy in Flux,Prospects Remain Dim ©2025 International Monetary Fund Cover and Design: IMF CSF Creative Solutions Division Cataloging-in-Publication Data IMF Library Names: International Monetary Fund.Title: World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)Other titles: WEO | Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund) | World economic andfinancial surveys.Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 1980- | Semiannual | Someissues also have thematic titles. | Began with issue for May 1980. | 1981-1984: Occasionalpaper / International Monetary Fund, 0251-6365 | 1986-: World economic and financialsurveys, 0256-6877.Identifiers: ISSN 0256-6877 (print) | ISSN 1564-5215 (online)Subjects: LCSH: Economic development—Periodicals. | International economic relations—Periodicals. | Debts, External—Periodicals. | Balance of payments—Periodicals. |International finance—Periodicals. | Economic forecasting—Periodicals.Classification: LCC HC10.W79 HC10.80 ISBN 979-8-22902-394-8 (English Paper)979-8-22902-402-0 (English ePub)979-8-22902-400-6 (English Web PDF) Disclaimer:TheWorld Economic Outlook(WEO) is a survey by the IMF staff pub-lished twice a year, in the spring and fall. The WEO is prepared by the IMF staff andhas benefited from comments and suggestions by Executive Directors following theirdiscussion of the report on September 29, 2025. The views expressed in this publica-tion are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’sExecutive Directors or their national authorities. Recommended citation:International Monetary Fund. 2025.World Economic Outlook:Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim. Washington, DC. October. Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail:International Monetary Fund, Publication ServicesP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USATel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail: publications@IMF.orgbookstore.IMF.orgelibrary.IMF.org Errata November 7, 2025 - Chapter 1, Commodity Special Feature, page 35: “Vida Maver” was added to the contributor list footnote.- Chapter 2, section titled “The Contribution of Policy Frameworks to Macroeconomic Stabilization,” page 62: “Easterly and others(1993)” was added to the first sentence. The full reference was added to the reference list on page 72.- Chapter 2, Figure 2.3.1, panel 2, page 70: “(Percent)” was corrected to “(Percentage points).”- Chapter 3, Figure 3.10, Note, sixth sentence, page 87: “above-average distance” was corrected to “below-average distance.”- Statistical Appendix, Table A2, page 125: The data for the first 12 columns for the Czech Republic and Norway were corrected. December 3, 2025 The web version of the WEO was further updated to reflect the following changes to the version published online on November 7, 2025: - Chapter 1, Appendix Table 1.1.6, page 47: The reference year in the unit statement was changed from 2017 to 2021.- Statistical Appendix, Table B9, page 13: The 2025–26 values for Zimbabwe were corrected. Assumptions and Conventionsvii Further Informationix Preface xii Executive Summaryxv Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies A New Global Economic Landscape Slowly Takes Shape1Recent Developments: Resilience Giving Way to Warning Signs3Policy Mix: Loose Fiscal and Divergent Monetary9The Outlook: Dim Prospects10Risks to the Outlook: Still Tilted to the Downside20Policies: Bringing Confidence, Predictability, and Sustainability22Box 1.1. Trade Reallocation in Response to Tariffs: Will This Time Be Different?27Box 1.2. Risk Assessment Surrounding the Baseline Projection30Commodity Special Feature: Market Developments and Commodity-DrivenMacroeconomic Fluctuations35References48 Chapter 2. Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies? Introduction51Emerging Market Resilience to Risk-Off Episodes55The Evolution of Policy Frameworks in Emerging Markets57The Contribution of Policy Frameworks to Macroeconomic Stabilization62How to Deal with Future Risk-Off Shocks: Evidence from Model Simulations63Conclusions and Policy Implications66Box 2.1. IMF Arrangements and Emerging Market Resilience68Box 2.2. Milestones in Developing Monetary Policy Frameworks69Box 2.3. Macroeconomic Effects of Undermining Central Bank Independence70References71 Chapter 3. Industrial Policy: Managing Trade-Offs to Promote Growth and Resilience 75 Introduction75The Return of Industrial Policy77Industrial Policy for Infant Industry Protection80Lessons from Key Industrial Policies, Past and Present82Industrial Policy and Sector Performance86Cross-Sector Spillovers and Aggregate Effects88Conclusions and Policy Implications90Box 3.1. Industrial Policy in China: Quantification and Impact on Misallocation91 Box 3.2. Support or Distort: Evaluating National State Aid in Europe92Box 3.3. A Comparison between Industrial and Struc