豹纹步伐稳健：历峰集团珠宝业务领衔增长

Richemont Br (CFR SW) creative momentum 215.00185.00 expect Jewellery Maisons sales up 15%at constantFX inQ1 +MaintainBuy,raiseTPtoCHF215 (fromCHF185)on thebackof higherearnings estimates Webelieve JewelleryMaisons withkeybrands Cartier, VanCleef &Arpelsbutalso Buccellati and Vhernier have all the attributes to continue to grow at a fast pace. Theconstant renewed creativity of Maisons is a clear positive,with Cartier's disciplinedcreative pipeline translating into tangible traction, e.g., Love Unlimited scaling well aboveinitialplansandnewClashwithcolouredstonescollectionlaunchedearlierthisyearperforming strongly. Richemont's Maisons are also adopting a fair pricing policy, withreasonablepriceincreaseseventhroughitcouldbeattheexpenseofmargin.Overallthis has underpinned strong sales outperformancefor Richemont's Jewellery Maisonsover the past eight quarters, and we expect this momentum to continue, supported by thegroup's key success factors. Sales growth is being reinforced by locally driven demand inkeymarkets, where jewellery has delivered sustained strong performance across almostall price points, thus reducing reliance on tourism flows. Q1FY27salesdue15July;JewelleryMaisonsshouldshineagain.Q2 reporting season will kick off with Richemont reporting Q1FY27 sales (April-June) on15July.WhilewebelievetheluxurysectorhasnotmovedmuchvsQ1intermsofregional trends apart from a likely larger impact from the Middle East conflict in Q2,weexpect Richemonttoremain thecrown jewel,with JewelleryMaisons sales up anestimated 15% organically,broadly in line with Q4, and still delivering strong double-digit growth across all regions apart from Europe and the Middle East. Margin-wise,nothing will be disclosed before mid-November, when the group reports its H1. Thegold price will still remain a headwind in FY27, particularly in H1, but there will beoffsetting factors (pricing,product mix),and if sales growth remains strong as weexpect, there should be solid opex leverage in the fiscal year ending March 2028. Anne-Laure Bismuth*Head of Consumer Luxury&Sporting GoodsHSBC Bank plcannelaure.bismuth@hsbcib.com+442079916587 Akshay Gupta*, CFAGlobal Luxury & Consumer AnalystThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedakshay.gupta@hsbc.com.hk+8522974 2980 Maintain Buy, increase TP to CHF215 (from CHF185) on higher earnings estimates. We raise our target price by 16.2% to CHF215 on the back of our 4-8% EBITestimate increase in FY27-28e and higher longer-term growth assumptions given thestrength of Jewellery Maisons sales growth.Richemont trades ata FY27e PE of29.9x (vs 23.6x for the luxury sector, a 27% premium), which is warranted in our viewby the consistent outperformance of Richemont in terms of sales growth quarter afterquarterandagreatmanagementteamledbyNicolas Bos,groupCEO since June2024.Our CHF215TP implies c15% upside and we maintain our Buy rating as webelieve Q1 sales could act as a positive catalyst. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualifed pursuant to FINRA regulations Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plc Disclosures &Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBCGlobal InvestmentResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com Forecasts We increase our EBIT estimates by 4%forFY27e and 8%forFY28e on the back of higherorganic sales and introduce FY29 estimates in this report. FY27e: We expect organic sales growth of 8.1% (vs 6.2% previously) and c110bp EBITmargin expansion y-0-y to 21.1% (from 20.9% previously).FY28e: We expect organic sales growth of 8.8% (vs 8.5% previously) and c190bp EBITmargin expansion y-0-y to 23.0% (from 22.0% previously).FY29e: We expect organic sales growth of 8.6% and c150bp EBIT margin expansion y-0-yto 24.5%. Valuationand risks We increase our DCF-derived TP to CHF215 (from CHF185) on the back of above-mentionedincrease in estimates and higher long-term growth assumptions. Our TP is based on a WACC of8.2% that incorporates a risk-free rate of 4.25%, equity risk premium of 4.0%, sector beta of 1.0,and a specific beta of 0.8 (all unchanged). Our TP implies c15% upside. We maintain our Buyratingas webelieveQ1salescouldactas apositivecatalyst. Downside risks: (1) Strong CHF, weak USD relative to EUR; (2) underperforming divisionsof Europeanand US consumersdisproportionately;(4)moregradual return of Chineseconsumers than currentlyfactored in; and (5)key person risk if group CEO Nicolas Bos leaves. Note: excluding YNAP from FY23 onwardSource: Company data, HSBC estimates Disclosure appendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts val