全球奢侈品：随着进入2026年第四季度，历峰集团可能存在营收上行空间

Global Luxury Goods: Likely top-line upside for Richemont as wehead into 4Q26E We introduce a new alternative dataset that that tracks luxury sales in shopping malls inMainland China. We focus on Richemont in the context of FY26 reporting on 22ndMay 2026. Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com Shopping mall sales for tracked brands closely correlates with reported results.Ourshopping mall dataset captures monthly retail sales starting from Jan’21. At the aggregatelevel, total retail sales for a group of luxury companies aligns well with the combinedreported revenue of their respective regional segments that includes Greater China. At theindividual company level, we observe a strong correlation between shopping mall retailsales growth and regional segment CFx growth (Exhibit 10 to Exhibit 17). Specifically, weanalyse APAC ex. JP for Hermès, LVMH’s F&LG, Richemont, and Kering (Gucci and SaintLaurent); Greater China for Zegna and Swatch; and Asia for the Moncler brand. Maria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Eric Chen, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA+44 20 7676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com We zoom in on Richemont with additional alternative datasets.We observe animproved correlation with APAC ex. Japan CFx growth when combining Mainland Chinashopping mall sales with Hong Kong retail W&J sales data. In addition, Richemont’s CFxgrowth in Japan and Europe appears to align well with the YoY growth in jewellery sales atTokyo department stores and W&J retail sales in France, respectively. Specialist Sales Alix Turner+44 20 7762 4044alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com Overall, Richemont could surprise to the upside in 4Q26E CFx growth.Our correlationanalysis indicates potential upside to the current consensus of +9% Group CFx growth.By region, Japan is most likely to outperform, followed by Europe with a lower probability,while APAC ex. Japan is likely to be in line. Viewed differently, current consensus assumesa faster narrowing of the growth gap between Richemont JM and LVMH F&LG on a similarcomparable base sequentially (Exhibit 5). This may be premature for 1Q26, given thenewness under JW Anderson’s Dior is only gradually rolling out to the stores. Strong jewellery sales in Japan are likely to drive an upside surprise.Currentconsensus for Japan (c.+14%) appears to factor in a slight sequential slowdown, reflectingsomewhat tougher comparable bases. However, we note that jewellery sales in Tokyodepartment stores accelerated materially in 1Q26 on both a YoY and 2Y basis. Categorygrowth in jewellery has also outpaced apparel and accessories, which historically hasshown a decent correlation with reported luxury fashion and accessories revenue growth,potentially reflecting strong LFL jewellery price increases. There is greater uncertainty in Europe, but consensus likely embeds sufficientdownside.Our current data coverage includes W&J retail sales in France for Jan andFeb’26, but excludes the critical month of March. For our model to align with the currentconsensus for Europe (c.+8%), however, a roughly 15% decline in W&J retail sales forMarch, assuming trends from the first two months persist, would be required. WhileRichemont has not disclosed its exposure to Middle Eastern consumers, a 15% inferredimpact (equivalent to c.30% of tourist demand, given total tourist exposure is below 50%in Europe) appears elevated relative to its estimated 8-10% exposure to the Middle Eastregion, where over 70% of demand is local. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS The trajectory of a recovery in global luxury demand remains uncertain. We find two sources of volatility at play: a) underlyingdemand gyrations, as consumers navigate a fragile macro-economic environment and a tenser and tenser geopoliticalenvironment; and b) short-term investors playing the sector long and short, amplifying upswings and downswings beyondnatural news flow. In this context of heightened uncertainty, we would take a more defensive posture with a core exposure toplain vanilla: 1)We would prefer high-quality names “at fair value”...Richemontis our top preference due to strong jewellery momentumand leadership, withBrunello Cucinellialso favored for their quality and potential mean reversion. It is difficult to be positiveonHermèsin the short-term, but one weak quarter can be forgiven by the market, if they return to high single digit growth(Hermès: Valuations already discount a 'Ferrari reset'). 2)...as well as the self-help stories with more promising trajectories.LVMHsits between high quality and self-help. Lingeringconcerns around the W&S turnaround and the Arnault family’s ‘Darwinian’ succession process are counter-balanced by Dior’srevival, cost efficiencies, and Louis Vuitton’s strength; Turnaround atBurberryis well on track. One-year anniversary of theBurberry Forward strategy has paid off, in the form of improved brand momentum and stronger full-price sell-through. With asoli