全球存储科技周报：海力士第四季度营业利润有望向好，DRAM现货价格再度上涨，MLCC/FC-BGA存在上行空间

Weekly theme: Hynix’s 4Q OP likely upbeat,DRAM spot up again, MLCC/FC-BGA upside Price Objective Change Hynix’s OP outlook more optimistic, raise PO to W1.1mn We are more bullish on SKHynix’s earnings outlook. The key reason is stronger DRAMASP assumptions for 4Q25 (new estimate: +23% QoQ vs old: +17%) and 1Q26 (+21%).Since HBM (40%+/- of total DRAM sales) price remains stable under annual contracts,conventional DRAM price hike should be 30%+ per quarter in 4Q25-1Q26. This is slightlylower (4Q) or higher (1Q) compared to Samsung Electronics’ASP (ex-HBM), according toour analysis. Overall, our new forecasts for Hynix’s OP indicate 10% higher OP vsconsensus for 4Q25 (W17.9tn vs W16.5tn) and 1Q26 (W22.5tn vs W20.4tn), but 7%lower for entire 2026 (W96tn vs W103tn) due to our relatively conservative 2H ASPassumptions (stable following 2H25-1Q26 rally). Also, our new 2026 EPS estimate is12% higher than earlier with 9% higher DRAM ASP. Against this backdrop, we raise ourPO from W1.0mn to W1.1mn using a slightly higher 2026E P/B (4.1x vs 3.9x). Micronalready trades at 5x FY26E BPS. We also expect bullish guidance at 4Q earnings call (29Jan): mass production of HBM4 (2-3 quarters ahead of competitors), 1c node DRAMramp-ups (also ahead of Samsung), conventional DRAM price increase, etc. Capexincrease will also be guided but it will include non-WFE-related spending. DRAM spot rally continued; no sign for correction yetDRAM spot prices rose further this week: 16Gb DDR5 (+5% WoW), 8Gb DDR4 (+6%) and 4Gb DDR3 (10%). This reveals a 20-30%+ YTD/MoM rise or 100%+ QoQ. We still seeminimal trading volume in the spot given unrealistically high price. DRAM spot pricealready accounts for 50-100% of BOM (for low-end PC and smartphone). We also reckonTrendForce’s aggressive contract price forecast for Jan–up 30-40% MoM among allmajor DRAM chips (vs only 10-15%+/- in Dec). That said, our check indicates 20-30%price hike for conventional DRAM including DDR5 for US Big Tech, as of Jan. Overall, weacknowledge exceptionally strong DRAM spot or even 1Q26 contract price but we don’tsee any signs for immediate price cut given rising DRAM supply shortage concerns. SEMCO’s guidance presents MLCC/substrate upturnSamsung Electro-Mechanics, a 24% stake owned by Samsung Electronics, provided bullish guidance for Asia tech supply chain during its 4Q25 earnings call (23 Jan). Threecatalysts: (1) strongly growing MLCC contents for new AI servers (our understanding:0.5mn units possible vs currently 0.2-0.3mn); (2) more expensive semiconductorsubstrate (larger sized FC BGA for new GPUs/ASICs) demanded among US Big Techcompanies; and (3) strongly growing new MLCC/substrate orders from auto OEMs(mostly for autonomous driving). Management also highlighted new growthopportunities with glass substrate (post 2025-26 pilot run-based sampling) and robotics,and low impact of DRAM supply shortage (OEM customers’production cut mostly forlow-end smartphone/PC/consumer vs normal production volume for high-end, includingSamsung’s new flagship model of GS26). Overall SEMCO’s earnings call takeaways“Asiacomponent supply shortage to meet new AI demand”;see our Asia tech year ahead. SK Hynix specific charts and tables Exhibit2:V-shaped recovery proved (2H23-1H24); upcyclecontinues into 2025-26SK Hynix–Quarterly OP trend SK Hynix–DRAM and NAND ASP QoQ change Exhibit5:Robust2025-27EFCF generation due tosolidEBITDAgrowth (W100tn+ pa) despite higher capex spend (W30tn+ pa)SK Hynix–FCF generation continues into 2025-27E Exhibit6:Samsung’s OP also remains high at over W20.0tnSEC’s quarterly OP - mostly driven by conventional DRAM vs slow progress of HBM4 SK Hynix – DRAM assumption revisions (2025-27E) Memory spot price trend Exhibit 10: DRAM spot price rally exceptionally strong since Sept-25;record-high level for current mainstream DRAM 16Gb DDR5 at US$37 and 16GbDDR4 at $78; DRAM price hit the highest levels in the past 25 years. Previous high level was hit in Oct-17, but it was only $10 rangeDRAM spot price – long-term trend (2000-2025) Exhibit11:DDR4 crossover occurred in Jun-25; 16Gb DDR4 ($73) muchhigher vs 16Gb DDR5 ($33)16Gb DDR5and 16Gb DDR4spot price trend (monthly average) 16Gb DDR5 price premium vs 16Gb DDR4 Exhibit13: Pricestrongly up +25% in Jan, hits record high-levels of$37 after slightly muted Dec; robust rally was observed in Nov(+60%) and Oct (+70%)16Gb DDR5 spot price–daily, May ‘23-Jan ‘26 Exhibit14:MoM growthdecelerated to +16% in Dec vs +60-120%range during Oct-Nov; up 24% in Jan16Gb DDR5 spot month-average price–MoM change,May ‘23-Jan ‘26 Exhibit15:8Gb DDR4 rally more notable (2000%+ YoY) due tobig-3 chipmakers’ production cut; price hit $30 exceeding previoushigh levels of $10 hit in Oct-178Gb DDR4 spot price trend,Mar‘23-Jan‘26 Exhibit16:Also recovered+30-70% eachin Septo Dec, as well asearly Jan (+20%) to reach US$78; price up 2400%+ YoY16Gb DDR4 spot price trend, Jan ‘23-Jan‘26 Exhibit18:Pricesmassivelyrecovered40-70% each