历峰集团：2026财年电话会议要点

+41582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.comMaria Meita Rating +44 20 71700540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com OutperformPrice Target +4420 76766822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com ?CFR.SW +85221232628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com Richemont: Highlights from the FY26 conference call is likely sustainable. As Mr Rupert kindly pointed out, we do track foot traffic in shoppingmalls,and saw positive trends in May's data (see Global Luxury Goods Mega-transect:Resilient Labour Day traffic),while we believe relative competition from gold jewelers inChina will continue to ease (see Richemont and the Chinese jewellery market).We raise our1H27Etop-lineforecaststo accountforthisbrandmomentum.We nowforecastJMCFxof+10.5% inFY27Eand Group CFxof+8.9%(+200bps and+170bps above consensus). The outlook onmargins continues topuzzleinvestors.Welaid outthemovingpartsto Richemont's gross margins, identifying fivekey buckets: Net pricing,gold/rawmaterial cost inflation, inventory revaluations, FX, and tariffs (see Richemont: Fine-tuningownforecasts.WebelievethiswaslargelydrivenbyFXheadwinds,whichcamein-2Obpsabove our forecasts, and tariffs. Both would reflect a higher weighttowards APAC and theAmericas given booming sales, incremental headwinds that will likely persist through toFY27.Given that Richemont applies standard costaccounting and cost assumptions arelikelystill unchanged,ourviewontheotherbucketsareunchanged.Wenowassumea-70bps sequential headwind to GM% in FY27E (vs.-50bps previously). Wetakea conservativeviewonoperatingleverage,WedefaulttotheassumptionthatcommunicationandG&Aexpensescontinuetogrowbroadlyin-linewithinflation,while selling expenses growa touch below top-line growth rates (to reflect somedegreeofoperating leverage)inFY27E,despite2H26A's communication-led beat onOPEX.WeforecastFY27EEBIT% of 20.9%.Akey catalystto the upside wouldbe further‘house-cleaning'in the Other' division, work that seems to be in the making. InvestmentImplications Higher top-line forecasts are largely offset by slightly lower EBIT% forecasts, leaving ourforecasts largelyunchanged.Nevertheless, we continue to expect sequential EBIT% andEPSgrowth.OurFY27/28EEPSforecastsare-2%and-3%belowconsensus.Wecontinueto value Richemontonatarget 2.1x relative NTM+1P/Emultiple to the MSCIEurope,equivalent to a 26x NTM+1P/E,to arrive at an unchanged PT of CHF200.We continuetosee Richemontasa succession-readystructuralwinnerinaK-shapedeconomy (see ·OnFY26A: positive mix effect seen in some ranges as high-jewellery performs well. Continuing to see strong traction in moreaffordable lines,aidedbynewnovelties drop-off in March remaining 1/3 was due to US duties of ~200m. .Note thathigh-end jewellerytends to havelowermargins than'volume'jewellery .FXimpact of -21Obps,mainly fromtheUSD,CHFand RMB ·OnEBITMargins: .Communicationexpenses:Decreasing%ofsales drivenby: Brands reaching levels in absolute terms where they have the visibility they wish to get: Richemont does not wantto be all over the place; wants to remain selective, not too noisy. The bigger the brand, the lower the % of sales (= ascale effect) Favourable market conditions, given that peers still face a significant amount of disruption. This has allowedRichemont to optimize its marketing spend, getting more bang for their buck .Cost discipline:The communication budget was fixed in absolute terms,while the turnover budget ended upexceededinternalexpectations,leadingtoamechanicalreductioninspendasa%ofsales ·Administrativecostsreflecthighernon-recurringcostsof164mvs72m inFY25,primarily reflectinga99mfollowing the announced sale of Baume&Mercier costs,GroupEBITwouldhavebeencloseto4.7bn ·OnNetFinanceCostsandTaxes: investmentmandates ·Gain in hedging activities, which are not included in operating profit :Lower share in equity accounted results relatedto Luxe Experience (aka MyTheresa) Taxratesreflectregionalmixandnon-cashaccountingaccounts,giventheYNAPwrite-downfromFY25 .CAPEX:remainsfocusedonupgrading the internalboutiquenetwork,andexpanding JM manufacturingcapabilities ·Dividends:ProposedCHF4.3Odividend,which includesaCHF3.30ordinarydividendandaCHF1.0Ospecial dividend JLC and see it as the core of their manufacturing expertise. There is no way they would ever sell JLC. 'Other'businesses division activities or complementary skills .Tariffs: Management has yet to decide on whetherto claim back tariffs.Waryof potential legal risk,if purchases were COMMENTARYBYGEOGRAPHY AMERICAS(+18% CFXIN4Q26; +17% CFXINFY26)·Quarter:DDgrowth inJMandSWM,MSDgrowth inOther .Consumerfeel-good continuestodrive spending; Americans continueto enjoy relativelypositive consumer confidenceandhave refocusedtowards jewellery,watches,iconic products whichhavemore long-termvalue vs.fashion andaccessories .Remains on-trendtogrowtowards internalretailvs.wholesale APAC EX. JP (+14% CFX IN 4Q26; +8% CFX IN FY26) .Quarter: DD growth in JM, more than offset lower sales in other business areas .TheSouthKoreanmarketwasv