历峰集团1Q27营收及利润率分析-巴克莱欧洲奢侈品及专业零售行业报告

Beyond Results cons. at 11%. Jewellery Maisons grew 24% cFx (cons at 13%),Beyond results, our detailed margin modelling suggests50bps y/y GM deterioration in FY27, and we are c.23/22bpsbelow cons. on GM/EBIT margins. We are >5% cons. on'27E EPS. We stay OW. UnchangedEuropean Luxury Goods&NEUTRAL Specialty RetailUnchangedPrice TargetCHF 220.00 raised 10% from CHF 200.00Price (15-Jul-26)CHF 195.60 Potential Upside/Downside+12.5%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Resultskeytake:Substantialbeatacross theboard.Richemont reported1Q27 revenue ofEUR 6.3bn and cFX growth of 20%,whichwas a significant beat vs BBG cons.of 11%.JewelleryMaisons (c.75% of sales) posted standout growth of24% cFX, almostdouble BBG cons.at 13%.SpecialistWatchmakers(14%ofsales)andOthers(11%ofsales)alsobeatcons.by300-350bps Market Cap (CHF mn)115666Shares Outstanding (mn)1075.16Free Float (%)96.5952 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)0.8Dividend Yield (%)1.69Return on Equity TTM (%)15.09Current BVPS (CHF)40.92Source: Bloomberg Resultsdetails:JMup24%cFX,>10ppbeat.SWandothersalsostrong.TheJewelleryMaisons division reported an impressive top-line beat,growing24% cFX vs cons.at 13%,drivenmostly by vol/mix, withpricing contribution at c.6/7%.Specialist Watchmakersgrew 8% cFXvscons. of 5%, driven by DD growth in the Americas, Japan and Middle East, but still"soft" inGreater China.Finally,the others division grew 9% cFX, surprising to the upside and postingstrong growth vs current expectations at other soft luxury peers. By geography, all regions wereup +DD, except Middle East and Africa (which still grew 3%).Americas grew27%, driven bylocal consumption,andtheUs clustergrew even morestrongly,implying outperformanceofthe offshore cohort.APAC excl. Japan was also strong at 21% cFX, driven byrobust performance in S.Korea, fuelled by locals and Chinese tourists alike,and Greater China.Mainland China, on the other hand, wasstill negative (in linewith our observations in our recentLuxury Data Handbook),implying a strong outperformanceof the offshore portion of thecluster.Europe was up 11%cFX, withlocal consumers outperforming touristspending. Price PerformanceExchange-Swx52 Week rangeCHF 196.95-127.20 Beyond results:Margins as thenext catalyst.Assuminga 6-12mlagbefore the impact of thegold pricehits the P&L,estimating inventory revaluation,calculating theFX impact at currentrates and assuminga c.4% y/yprice increases forFY27, we expect FY27 GM to be down 50bps y/yto 63.9%. The first half should be hit harder, and we expect 1H27 GM down c.190bps, notably hitbyac.59obpsrawmaterialcostimpact.DespiteavariablecostcomponentinOpex(personnel,leaseexpenses,communication),weexpect155bpsofOpexsavings(1H/2H:119/185bps)andexpect an EBIT margin of 21.1%forFY27. Source: IDCLinktoBarclays Liveforinteractivecharting European LuxuryGoods&SpecialtyRetail Viktoria Petrova+49 (0)69 7161 1052viktoria.petrova@barclays.comBBI, Frankfurt 5%EPSupgrade:WeremainOW.Weraiseourestimates forFY27cFXgrowthto13%fortheGroupand16%for JM,and expect Richemontto remain thefastest-growing luxurycompanyunder our coverage in the nextfew quarters.We liftmargins (but remainbelow cons.)and Filippo Croce+44 (0)20 3555 2994filippo.croce1@barclays.comBarclays, UK Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks todobusiness with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as onlya single factorin makingtheirinvestment decision. Carole Madjo+44 (0)20 3134 3168carole.madjo@barclays.comBarclays, UK This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts withFINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning onpage 14.Completed: 15-Jul-26, 20:47 GMT Released: 16-Jul-26, 03:00 GMTRestricted-External reiterateourOverweightrating. FIGURE 3. Key drivers: FY27E EPS bridge ResultssummaryQ1-27 results: Richemont reported 1Q27 revenue of EUR 6.3bn and cFX growth of 20%, which was a significant beat vs BBG cons.of11%.Jewellery Maisons (c.75% of sales)posted standoutgrowth of 24% cFX, almost double BBG cons. at 13%. Specialist Watchmakers (14% of sales) andOthers (11% of sales) also beat cons.by 300-350bps. cons. at 13%, mostly driven by vol/mix, with pricing contribution at c.6/7%. Americas, Japan and Middle East, but still"soft" in Greater China. expectations atothersoft luxurypeers. We now have greater clarity on key margin drivers, and explicitly forecast the impact on GM from gold prices, inventory revaluation, FX, tariffs and price/mix to arrive at our gross marginforecasts. In FY27, we expect GM to be down 50bps y/y, with c.190 bps y/y deterioration in 1H. Given the significant gold price and FX headwinds hitting Richemont's margins (as a reminder, FY26 EBIT was down y/y, but wou