诺基亚纠错：2027年加速与利润率扩张，目标价上调至13.8欧元

EUROPE | Comm. EquipmentNokia Erratum: Acceleration and margin expansionin 2027 - PT raised to €13.8 Nokia's engagement with hyperscalers is rising across its Optical portfolio,with its IP Networks acceleration being driven by Switch wins with onehyperscaler for now. We model this order momentum to lead to highergrowth and margin expansion in 2027 and 2028 than previously modelled,while also supporting a further re-rating of the stock. We, therefore, raiseour forecasts (FY27 EPS 15% ahead of consensus), and also increase ourPT from €10.7 to €13.8 Consensus numbers corrected. Strong Optical backlog build supports 2027 outlook:Nokia booked €2.4bn of Cloud & AIorders in 2025 and a further €1bn in Q1-26, mostly in Optical. However, total revenues fromCloud & AI in Q1-26 was only €350m, suggesting a significant build-up of the backlog. Thebacklog is expected to further expand through 2026 due to strengthening orders from bothOptical and IP, amidst capacity constraints till the second Indium Phosphide fab comes on-line by year-end. We, therefore, model Nokia's Cloud & AI revenue across Optical and IP toaccelerate to 27% in 2027, up from the currently guided growth of 18-20% in 2026. Margin to expand faster in 2027 and 2028:Despite the revenue acceleration already comingthrough this year, Nokia's margins are being held back by increased investments in Opticaland IP. We expect this headwind to reduce through 2027 and 2028 and forecast the NetworkInfrastructure adj. operating margin to rise to 16.8% in 2027 (from 13.8% in 2026), almostreaching the high-end of the 2028 target range (13-17%). We also raise our overall 2026adjusted operating profit to €2.41bn (previously €2.32bn), close to the high-end of the €2-2.5bnrange. Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies estimates for Nokia Optical growth supported by roadmap and rising capacity:IP Networks is expected to bea key part of Nokia's AI & Cloud revenue acceleration from Q2-26, as switch orders from ahyperscaler (estimated to be Google) start to contribute. However, we expect Optical to bethe main growth engine for Nokia over the next 2-3 years, as all hyperscalers buy into Nokia'sroadmap based on the four new DSPs and 13 implementations showed at OFC. While mostof the €1bn orders in Q1-26 were for 800G pluggable transceivers for Scale Across, we expecta broadening to DCI transponders and line systems as these applications transition to 1.6Tand 3.2T. Raising price target to €13.8:We raise our PT to €13.8 from €10.7. Our PT is derived usingthe average of a DCF (€13.3) and sum of the parts valuation (€14.3). We use Ciena and AristaNetworks in our SOTP to benchmark Nokia's NI division which we believe is justified, giventhat Nokia's forecast FY27 IP+Optical growth (+27%) is slightly ahead of the consensus growthforecast for these two companies (24%). Our PT implies an FY27 PER of 30x and EV/EBITDAof 15.5x. The implied FY27 PER is in-line with the peer group average (30.8x), while the EV/EBITDA is well below (peer group at 22x). We raise our FY26 and FY27 EPS forecasts by 3%and 13% respectively, and our FY27 EPS forecast is 15% ahead of consensus. Janardan Menon * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8413 | jmenon@jefferies.com Om Bakhda * | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7029 8671 | obakhda@jefferies.com Isaac Dale * | Equity Associate+44 (0)20 7548 4034 | idale@jefferies.com The Long View: Nokia Investment Thesis We expect Nokia to steadily take share in optical networking at allhyperscalers, while opportunistically taking share in switching and routingat some of them. We expect Optical+IP revenues to accelerate towards 30% growth through2027 and 2028, on the back of strong orders and the significant backlogthat is built up in 2026. We model operating margins to rise towards 17% inNetwork Infrastructure on the back of revenue strength. Gross margin is forecast to expand mainly driven by a high forties marginin Cloud & Network Services, a transition to a more software-centric AI-RAN model in Mobile Networks and slight improvement in profitability in theother divisions. Downside Scenario,€7.8, -32% Upside Scenario,€17.5, +54% Base Case,€13.8, +21% Nokia gains data centre market share fasterthanexpected in Optical Networking and IPNetworking,leading to 2026 revenue trendsoutperforming current guidance with a strongacceleration in 2027. TheAI capex spending cycle weakens overthe next 12 months leading to weaker demandfor Nokia's optical and IP solutions. Valuationmultiples decline. Optical+IPrevenues to rise by the 18-20%guidance in 2026 due to strong AI data centre-ledgrowth in both Optical and IP Networks, takingtotal revenue growth to 6.2%. IP+Optical revenues accelerate to 27% in 2027,takingoverall company growth to 9%.Theoperating margin rises to 13%. The Mobile Networks division moves into a lossdue to a fall in revenues, with no confidence inimprovement. The strong growth in Optical Networking resultsin a meaningful increase in the profitability ofthis business, d