伊卡洛斯- 2025年5月20日：瑞安航空公布25财年业绩，目标价上调至26欧元，有待讨论的问题；美国国际入境人数下降；汉莎航空主要股东推动更多变革

Restricted - External European TransportationAndrew Lobbenberg+44 (0)20 3555 0639andrew.lobbenberg@barclays.comBarclays, UKRahul Singh+91 (0)22 6175 2529rahul.xb.singh@barclays.comBarclays, UKHelene Iselin+44 (0)20 7773 7391helene.iselin@barclays.comBarclays, UKMarco Limite+39 (0)2 6372 2582marco.limite@barclays.comBBI, MilanEmilie Fung+44 (0)20 3555 2335emilie.fung@barclays.comBarclays, UK levels. The company is evidently seeing YoY revenue strength build as flights get closer todeparture. We think this reflects the surprising and dramatic late booking weakness lastsummer, as Ryanair struggled to come to terms with the disorientating impact of the loss of OTAbooking volumes on its revenue management algorithms. Cost performance is facing pressure.Ryanair reported FY25 non fuel unit costs rising 5% and the company's guide to total unit costsrising 1-2% in FY25, implies a similar 5% ex fuel cost inflation in FY26 (compared to our previousestimate of 2.5%). However, packaged with the fuel and FX gains, the cost and revenuedevelopments point to stronger profits than we previously expected. We raise FY26 net profit by4%.Cash generation – we expect more buybacks: In FY25 Ryanair undertook €1.5bn of sharebuybacks and paid €400m dividends. Whilst profitability should brighten in FY26, we expectcapex will be slightly higher, with the last 29 Max 8200aircraftexpected for delivery in autumn2025. Ryanair has a €850m bond to repay in September and a further €1.2bn bond to repay inMay 2026. Ryanair seems keen to manage expectations for shareholder returns. It announced anew €750m SBB at FY24 results to take place over a 6-12 month period. The company said onthe call that this would likely be the last SBB for a while. Given that the company sits on anundrawn €1.2.bn undrawn RCF thatoffersflexibility should assets fall available for acquisition,we think the company should be able to return further cash to shareholders. We model a total€1.0bn for FY26 and FY27, climbing to €1.4bn in FY28 with moderate capex and bondrepayments drop away. We think one potential competing use of cash could come fromRyanair's plans to build its own engine maintenance facilities. Investment in this new venturemight eat up some available cash targeted for buybacks.Maintain OW, PT €26 from €23:As noted above, we raise our FY26 net profit estimate by 4%.For FY27 we lower our estimate, which was far above consensus as our priortrafficnumberswere ahead of company guidance. We see upside risk to consensus for FY27 thanks to benignfuel costs.In addition to trading momentum, we expect the share price to be underpinned bythe resumption of the buyback as well as further possible index inclusion, which the companyflagged in response to the changes to ownership and control rules.https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FC682b59ebcff73437cd2aa388Barclays research: Ryanair - Issues for debate post FY25 resultsKey issues include summer trading, management incentives, cost control, the Max, OTArelationships and shareholder returns.What's the debate?This report provides a set of issues for investors to discuss with Ryanairmanagementafterits FY25 results on 19 May 2025.Top of the agenda: Summer trading, cost control, shareholder returns, leadershipincentives and Max deliveries :Ryanair has brightened its tone around fares though costguidance is on the rise. The outlook for Boeing deliveries has become more constructive andRyanair sounds upbeat about the prospects for taking its Max-10aircraftclose to schedule. Thecompany announced a new buyback at FY25, but sounded cautious on the pace of futureshareholder returns.View and valuation:We rate the stock Overweight with a three-stage DCF-defined price targetof €26.0. Ryanair continues to have a strong balance sheet, be profitable, and be cash-generative. We see Ryanair heading into a strong summer, with Easter timing and verysoftcomparison data supporting the outlook for 1Q. Fuel costs and FX are favourable though other2 costs weigh. Overall we see earnings momentum as favourable, whilst the share price shouldbe further supported by the SBB and index inclusion.For our post-results note on Ryanair, please see Ryanair: Its beginning to look a lot likeChristmas, 19 May 2025.https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FC682b7b95f02efa6b0afcec02Back on our North Atlantic golden goose hobby horse, here’s a piece published together with thedata science team, showing that Easter exaggerated March’s decline in US arrivals but smoothingthrough Easter timing, they are clearly falling from most Euro countries, more neutral from the UKand rising from those places whose politics align with the current US administration – alarminglysimplistic but that seems to be the case.Barclays research: Overseas visitors to the U.S. down YoY, uponadjustment for Easter timingIn this week's digest, we look at US arrivals data published by the Department of Commerce,finding a fall in overseas visitors in March/Ap