拜耳AG：绿色萌芽；基于强劲财务表现及改善前景，将目标价上调至25欧元

Green Shoots; raise PT to EUR 25on strong financial performanceand improving prospects BAYGn.DE/BAYN GYEQUAL WEIGHTUnchanged Strong Pharma growth in 1Q25, bolstered by new launchesand robust base businesses, supports a potential beat onPharma FY25 guidance, in our view. Despite some regulatoryand margin pressures, Crop and Consumer segments are ontrack to meet guidance. We raise our PT to reflect strongnumbers. European Pharmaceuticals& Life SciencesNEUTRALUnchanged Price TargetEUR 25.00raised 14% from EUR 22.00 Price (26-May-25)EUR 24.68Potential Upside/Downside+1.3%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Market Cap (EUR mn)24246Shares Outstanding (mn)982.42Free Float (%)96.5352 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)3.8Dividend Yield (%)0.45Return on Equity TTM (%)-9.56Current BVPS (EUR)33.03Source: Bloomberg We have updated our Bayer model post 1Q25 results (see:Bayer AG: 1Q25 First Look: Pharmanew launches drive strong quarter (13/05/25)); most of our tweaks are minor based on 1Q25results and management commentary, and we see the strong 1Q momentum (especiallyfor Pharma) could continue into the rest of the year.For Crop Science, the company expectsgrowth in 2Q25; Seeds and traits in 1Q25 were impacted by US Dicamba label issues, andmanagement noted the corn volume will be phasing into 2Q given adjustments in distributionnetwork. Despite regulatory challenges, management expressed confidence in achieving FY25segment guidance. For Pharma, Bayer had a strong 1Q performance primarily driven by newlaunches (Nubeqa and Kerendia) and noted they could reach the upper end of the FY25 outlook(-4% to -1% YoY, CER); we currently model +0.4% YoY growth (CER) for Pharma. Managementreiterated the €3bn annual sales for Eylea, citing the 8mg HD Eylea now accounting for 20%share in 1Q25. The launch of Elinzanetant by mid-2025 could further strengthen the sectorperformance. For Consumer Health, despite the decreased EBITDA margin in 1Q25 (22.8%), thecompany expressed confidence in reaching the 23-24% margin guidance. Additionally, Bayernoted the directtariffimpacts have been managed within the guidance range for 2025, andSCOTUS decision on glyphosate review expected in June or October. The P3 AsundexianOCEANIC-STROKE readout is a key catalyst for Bayer in 2H25; we remain cautious on this trial,but acknowledge the selected high-risk population could give it a better shot at success.On theback of the strong 1Q25 and also given improving prospects for the Crop Science business(see: Bayer AG: Belated feedback from Crop Science Webinar + takes on MAHA report:Accelerating growth and profitability detailed by a 5-year plan), we raise our PT to €25(5.4x '25E EPS) from €22 (4.8x '25E EPS). We maintain our EW rating given the companyremains in the early stages of its turnaround phase and given the inherent unpredictabilityin predicting SCOUTS outcomes. Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive charting European Pharmaceuticals & LifeSciences Emily Field, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 6263emily.field@barclays.comBarclays, UK Charles Pitman-King, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 6023charles.pitman-king@barclays.comBarclays, UK Shirley Chen, PhD+44 (0)20 7773 2109shirley.chen@barclays.comBarclays, UK Model changes:We tweaked our segment and FX forecasts based on 1Q25 results, FY25guidance, and management commentary, but the net of our changes is relatively minor. ForPharma, the most notable sales reduction is in our forecasts for Xarelto in 2H25. Valuation:5.3x ’25E core P/E, 0.5% div/8.6% FCF yields for 8.2% '25-28E EPS CAGR vs. EU largecap pharma sector 11.6x '25E core P/E,3.2% div/6.4% FCF yields for 8.4% '25-28E EPS CAGR. Key potential catalysts:Asundexian P3 OCEANIC-STROKE readout (2H25); Finerenone P3 FINE-ONE readout (2H25); Anti-a2AP P2 SIRIUS readout (2025); Elinzanetant US regulatory approval(2H25). Forecasts & Changes FIGURE 1. Bayer: forecast changes FIGURE 2. Bayer: NPV analysis Barclays | Bayer AG Analyst(s) Certification(s): I, Emily Field, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectsecurities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures: Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT. Availability of Disclosures: Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written reque