您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。[招银国际]:2025年第三季度表现稳固,并对2026-2028财年人工智能收入给出强劲预期;将目标价上调至港币6.77元 - 发现报告

2025年第三季度表现稳固,并对2026-2028财年人工智能收入给出强劲预期;将目标价上调至港币6.77元

2025-11-12Alex Ng、Hanqing Li招银国际淘***
2025年第三季度表现稳固,并对2026-2028财年人工智能收入给出强劲预期;将目标价上调至港币6.77元

Solid3Q25andstrongAI revenueguidanceinFY26-28E; Raise TP to HK$6.77 Target PriceHK$6.77(Previous TPHK$4.96)Up/Downside29.0%CurrentPriceHK$5.25 FIT’s3Q25revenue/net profit growth of 13%/9% YoYislargelyin-line with priorguidance and our expectations, backed by AI server momentum,automobilitysynergyand record-high GPM at 23.5%. During the earnings call,mgmt.reiteratedapositive2025outlook(high-single-digit revenue growth, GPM at20%), andupdatedFY26-28Eguidance, with1)2027-28E revenue growthofmid-20% (vs prior low-20%) and2)AI/cloud revenue mixof“low/mid/high-20%in2026/27/28E”.Overall, webelieve FIT is well positioned to benefit fromsharegainsandAI serverconnectivitysolutionsupgrade,backed byitssolid productpipelineand synergy with Hon Hai. WehaveadjustedFY25/26/27E EPS by-1%/+9%/26%to factor in3Q25 results andupbeatrevenue/mix guidance.WeraiseTPtoHK$6.77 based on higher 20xFY26E P/E (vs prior 16x),giventheAI server productcycle,40% FY24-27E EPS CAGR and higher earningsvisibility intoFY27-28E.The stock tradesat 15.5x FY26EP/E(vs24xfor1-sdabove8-yravg.P/E),and we expect further re-rating onhigherAIrevenuecontributionin FY26-27E.BUY. China Technology Alex NG(852) 3900 0881alexng@cmbi.com.hk Hanqing LIlihanqing@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data 3Q25largelyin-linewith highercloud/automobilityrevenuemix.FIT’s3Q revenue/NPgrowth of 13%/9%YoYis largely in-line withprior guidanceandourexpectations,driven bystrongAI product demand(+33% YoY)andautomobilitybusiness(+116%YoY),offsetting smartphone/consumerweakness(-20%/flat YoY).In addition, we are encouraged by record-highGPMof23.5%(vs17.8%/21.7% in2Q25/3Q24)thanks tohigher revenuecontribution ofAI server/automobile businesses. 4Q25/2025 outlook:AIserver rack ramp-up andOne-Mobilitysynergy.Mgmt.reiterated2025 guidance ofhigh-single-digit YoY revenue growthwithGPM at ~20%, and provided details on4Q25/2025outlook:1) Cloud/datacenter todeliverhigh-20%/30%+ YoYin 4Q/FY25Eonnew AI serverrack ramp-upandgeneral serverupgrade; 2) Automobilityto growmid-double-digit/40% YoY in 4Q/FY25E; 3) Consumer interconnects tostayflattish YoY on macro headwinds; 4)Smartphone biz/system productstoposthigh-teensdecline/beflattishin 4Q/FY25E due tomarketweakness.FY27-28E guidance:robustAIdemandwithstrong product pipeline (CPC/CPO/backplane connectors,liquid cooling, 800V).Mgmt.sharedupdates onAI productlaunches in CIOE/OCP, including 1) Connectors:102.4Tbps CPOconnectors, CPC 224Ginterconnectsolution,1.6T active/passive copper cables,2) Cooling:51.2T switch coolingandfull-flowQDliquid cooling couplers,and3) Power:800V/±400Vpowerbusbarand 400A/100A AC whip connectors.Overall,mgmt.guidedmid-20%YoY revenuegrowth inFY27/28E (vs. prior low-20%)and cloud/datacenter sales mixoflow/mid/high-20% in FY26/27/28E,boostingprofitability in the long run. Related Reports: 1.FIT Hon Teng (6088 HK)–2Qbusiness transition accelerated; AIcables/liquid cooling/power/automomentum on track–14 Aug 2025(link)2.FIT Hon Teng (6088 HK)–1Q25results below; Guidance lowered onsmartphone /system products dueto macro uncertainties–12 May2025 (link)3.FIT Hon Teng (6088 HK)–DecentFY24 results; Expectations reset onmore conservative guidance–13Mar 2025 (link)4.FIT Hon Teng (6088 HK)–FY24EPreview: robust earnings recovery;Expect AI server momentum todrive re-rating–27 Jan 2025 (link) 3Q25 Results review EarningsRevision Valuation Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$6.77 Wehaveadjusted FY25/26/27E EPS by-1%/+9%/26% to factor in 3Q25 results and upbeatrevenue/mix guidance. We raiseTP to HK$6.77 based on higher 20x FY26E P/E (vs prior16x), given AI server product cycle, 40% FY24-27E EPS CAGR and higher earningsvisibility into FY27-28E. The stock trades at 15.5x FY26EP/E(vs 24x for 1-sd above 8-yravg. P/E), and we expect furtherre-rating on higher AI revenue contribution in FY26-27E.Maintain BUY. Upcoming catalysts include AI servercomponentshipments, AirPods ramp-up andimproving margins in FY25-26E. Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates Disclosures& Disclaimers AnalystCertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, theanalyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of is