迅达集团Q1业绩及全年展望：增长好于Q4，利润率扩张预期放缓，目标价上调至290瑞士法郎

Schindler Group Switzerland Engineering Margin expansion still expected tomoderate through the yr, TP 290 CHFSchindler's Q1print showed bettergrowth than Q4 and included some project JohnKim ResearchAnalyst+44-20-754-18699Gael de-Bray, CFA wins with strong growth in both modernisation orders and revenues. That said,Q1 overall was a slow start for the company vs its full-year targets withmanagementexpecting gradualacceleration throughtheyear.E&Ecompaniesweresupposedtoenjoyaperiod of growth inpocketsofnewequipmentwhichnow looks underpressuregiven interest rates,cost inflation and supplychaindisruption. That said, the company didn't change its market outlook. In our view,this leaves growth more dependent upon service and modernisation where Q1wasstrongatc10obpsforreportedEBITvsmgmt'sguidefor+40bpsforthefull-year.OntheQ1call,thecompanydidreiteratethatitexpectsnegativemixeffectslogisticslargerinthemixnow.Schindler,likeothercompanies,willooktooffsetthiswithpriceincreasesandsurchargeswithabitoftimingmismatchonitslonger-leadpartsofthebusinessmodel.Adjustingourforecastsslightly,wenowexpect Schindlertodeliver+c60bps in EBITmargin expansioninFY26.Weseerisk-reward as balanced at these levels with a new target price of290.HOLD Research Analyst+33-1-4495-6562 Colour on the quarter and full-yr outlookMarketoutlookremainsunchangeddespiteconstructioncostinputsandknock-on effectsfromhigheroilpricenegativeforbuyersandnewconstructionwithpotentialrisk for further interest rate hikes. Nl orders in China declined 5% yr/yr in Q1 with+DDgrowthinrestofworld (value).SCHNsawstronggrowthinmodernizationwith+DDin all regionsin orders and revenues.The companyis seeing a gradual recoveryin German construction market with growth in Brazil driven by affordable housingand mixed signals from the US market. China remains under pressure with all keylead indicators down over 10% yr/yrin Q1. Revenue growth expected to accelerategraduallythrough theyrfromQ1 levels with all regions ex-China growing revenueswith China still down yr/yr.Modernisation revenue growth was +15%yr/yr with allregionsgrowingmod revenue+DDinQ1withbetterexecutionagainstitsrelevantbacklog.Service still expected to grow +MSD.Nochange to overall guidefor+LSDto +MSD rev growth in Ic. EngineeringSchindler Group in costs each in termsofa potentialfull year impact (c30m incrementalforFY26)with Schindler looking to actively mitigate impacts with E&E service contractstypicallyhavefuelpass-throughprovisions.Thatsaid,management didguidetherecouldbeatimelagbetweenpriceactions andsubsequentP&Limpactparticularlyin longerduration orders (read NI).Management haven'tchanged theirestimate of15-20mcostinflationfromrawmaterials(copper and aluminum)withthe companyhedging its steel exposures.Tariffs are estimated to have a gross P&L impact ofc15m CHF at current levels. Middle-East accounts for less than 3% of revenuesgroup but servicing customers in the region is challenging with c200 units in transitneedingalternative routing. In our FY26 forecasts,we assume+DD growth in local fx for modernisation revenues,+LSDgrowthinservicewith-HSDdeclinesin newinstallationswithforexstill a headwind.Versusprevious DBe,we've made nomeaningful changeto FY26group orders of CHF 11.4bn +3% yr/yr in Ic. We've adjusted revenues by +1% toCHF 11.0bn +3% yr/yr in Ic with adj.EBIT now CHF 1.5bn (13.9% margin) with DBe-1% under on orders, -1% on revenues and in line on adj. EBIT vs consensus. Ourrevised FY27 estimates are for order intake of CHF11.7bn +4% yr/yrin lc, revenuesof CHF 11.3bn +3% yr/yr in Ic and adjusted EBIT of CHF 1.6bn at a 14.1% marginwith FY27 DBe -2% under on orders, -2% on revenues and -2% on adj. EBIT vsconsensus. Valuation:ourtarget price adjust to CHF290 (was 280),HoldWevaluethecompanyusing DCFanalysiswithexplicitforecaststhrough2030with a terminal value calculation. Our assumptions include a CAPM framework tocalculate a WACC of 7.7% and a CF growth rate of 3.5% in perpetuity. Downsiderisks include exposure to cyclical construction markets or an inability to driveoperational improvements.Upside risks include better-than-expected order and EngineeringSchindler Group Financials EngineeringSchindler Group EngineeringSchindler Group Founded in 1874, Schindler is an international engineeringand service company that provides elevators, escalators, and moving walks transport. With 69,000+ employees in100 countries+,the company serve customersfrom1,000+branch offices with production sites in eight countries andsix R&D facilities globally. Schindler is listed on the Swissstock exchange. Cash flowfrom operations Balance Sheet (CHFm)Cash and other liquid assets Key CompanyMetrics John Kim+44 20 754-18699john-b.kim@db.com Appendix 1 *Other information available upon reguest subjectof this rsearch,pls.Asidefromwithinthisreport,importantriskandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps:/research.dbthemostypublishedcortour global disgeonourwebsiteathtare stronglyencouraged to review this inf