意大利国家电力公司（ENEL IM）买入评级，目标价上调至8.80欧元

Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications intheDisclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Enel reported Q1 2025 EBITDA of EUR5,974m, in line withour expectationsThe company reiterated its commitment to the industrial plan,and plans to propose a share buybackatAGMon 22 MayMaintain Buy; raise TP to EUR8.80(previously EUR8.10)Investment thesis:We think Enel’s balance sheet remains attractive. With1Q25results,Enel’s CEO reiterated that the company would consider small to medium size accretiveM&Aand signalledshare buybacksfor Enel(afterEndesa’s recently announcedprogramme).Weassume EUR1bn annual share buybacks in 2025-30e andmodela2027 dividend payout ratio of 80%(ahead of company guidance), which implies adividend of EUR0.58and attractive FY1-3 dividend yields of 6-7%. We expect mild netincome growthbroadly in line with company guidance. Networks continue to growon anormalised basison investments and tariff reviews, while we forecast flat integratedEBITDA after strong pricing tailwinds in the past three years–Wind & Solar growthoffsets falling EBITDA in flex gen/trading. Hydroand retailhave resilient and structurallyhighermarginscompared to 3 years ago on higher volatility for hydro andvalue-addedservices, PPAs and integrated benefits for Retail.With share buybacks and higher payoutratios, we forecast 2025-27 EPS and dividendCAGRsof4% and10%,respectively.Q1 2025 highlights:(i)Enel reported Q1 2025 ordinary EBITDA of EUR5,974m(-2% YoY),with the decline driven by Retail and Enel X. Net ordinary profit wasEUR2,003m mainly driven by lower D&A. (ii) Enel comfortably confirmedguidanceforFY 2025with a strong start in Q1 2025andexpects the effects of negative FX to belimitedin coming years: a 5%revaluationof USD and BRL could have a c1%impactonEBITDAand net income. (iii)Enel’sCEOintendstopropose a share buybackprogramme for the AGM on 22 Mayandreiteratedpreference for organic investmentsin networkscomplementedby brownfield renewables investments in countries with aretail presence or in assets with long-term contracts.Maintain Buy; raise TPto EUR8.80 (previouslyEUR8.10), implying10.6% upside.We value Enel using a SOTP (75%) and dividend yield (25%) valuation. We increaseour 2026-30eEBITDA by 1%,driven by networks. EPS and DPS estimates rise by 1-7%on EBITDA changes and share buybacks. We raise our TP, due to higher SOTPvaluation (on higher terminal growth rates for hydro/retail and a 50 bps WACC discountfor hydro/renewables) as well as higherdividend yield valuation (onahigher 2025dividend).We rate Enel Buy because of its strong balance sheet and resilient earningsprofile despite low underlying growth expectations.ENEL(ENEL IM)Buy:Greenbuybacks ◆◆◆ Free floatBBGRIC Find out more 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025eProfit & loss summary(EURm)Revenue78,94775,000EBITDA24,06623,057Depreciation & amortisation-8,572-8,598Operating profit/EBIT15,49414,459Net interest-3,401-3,128PBT11,88311,331HSBC PBT11,88311,331Taxation-3,654-3,217Net profit7,0166,856HSBC net profit7,1356,856Cash flowsummary(EURm)Cash flow from operations13,22315,454Capex-8,931-11,468Cash flow from investment-4,108-11,468Dividends-5,126-4,799Change in net debt-4,333964FCF equity4,2923,985Balance sheet summary(EURm)Intangible fixed assets28,68728,687Tangible fixed assets94,61497,484Current assets40,08540,085Cash & others8,0518,051Total assets187,139190,009Operating liabilities50,81850,668Gross debt71,08472,325Net debt55,76756,731Shareholders' funds33,73135,788Invested capital104,517107,537Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025eY-o-y % changeRevenue-17.4-5.0EBITDA18.8-4.2Operating profit43.0-6.7PBT68.7-4.6HSBC EPS9.6-2.8Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.80.7ROIC10.69.8ROE21.819.7ROA5.55.5EBITDA margin30.530.7Operating profit margin19.619.3EBITDA/net interest (x)7.17.4Net debt/equity113.4110.7Net debt/EBITDA (x)2.32.5CF from operations/net debt23.727.2Per share data(EUR)EPS Rep (diluted)0.690.68HSBC EPS (diluted)0.700.68DPS0.470.48Book value3.313.55Financials & valuation:ENEL We estimate 2-2.3GW of annualrenewables capacity additionsSource: HSBCestimates, company dataFor more details:Buy: Resilient 2025, growing payouts(8 April 2025)Buy: Resilient; growing payouts?(21 Mar 2025)2025 outlook: Visibility wins(10 Dec 2024)For details on Endesa, please seeBuy:Green income, more to go(20May 2025)2025 Q1 highlights:◆Enel reported Q1 ordinary EBITDAof EUR5,974m (-2% YoY) whichwasin line with ourexpectations and broadly in line with consensus (+2%),with the decline driven by Retailand Enel X. Net ordinary profit came in at EUR2,003m, slightly ahead of expectations (+2%vs HSBC and +5%vsconsensus) mainly driven by lower D&A.Networks EBITDA of EUR2.2bn was slightly ahead of our expectations (+3% vs HSBC)mainly driven by Latin America.Integrated business EBITDA of EUR3.8bn was in line with our forecast (-1% vs HSBC)with higher results in Italian conventional genera