破产展望-2026年4月

Global insolvencies are projected to increase by 3% in 2026,marking an upward revision compared totheOctober2025InsolvencyOutlook. Our insolvency forecast for 2026 has deteriorated due to the persistence of adverse economicconditions,including Covid‑related tax debts, rising input costs and ongoing trade tensions. The crisisin the Middle East, together with the associated increase in energy prices,adds to existing pressures.The impact on businesses will depend largely on thelengthof the conflict. For 2027, we expect a global decline in insolvencies of 6%.Lookingat next year, we expect a graduallyimproving business environment. Inflation and energy prices are likely to normalise,providingcentralbankswithmore room to cut interest rates. Looking ahead to 2027, we expectthatcompanieswillincreasingly adaptto the new economic environment. As long asinflation remains relatively contained, there is still room for theFederal Reserve to lower the policy interest rate slightly in 2027.In the eurozone, the central bank is likely to see room to lowerpolicy ratesagain.Together with a normalisation in energyprices as shipping bottlenecks are resolved, this leads to animproved business climate and lower insolvencies. Global insolvencies are forecast to rise by 3% in 2026. Thisrepresentsa 6 percentage points upward revision compared toourOctober2025 Insolvency Outlook.For 2027, we predict a 6%global decline. The business climate remains vulnerable in 2026 as challengingeconomic conditions persist, includingCovid-era debts,risinginput costs and trade tensions.The crisis in the Middle East, andtheassociatedincrease in energy prices presentsan additionalheadwindforcompanies.In our baseline scenario, shippingtraffic through the Strait of Hormuz remainsclose to zerofor aperiod of two months, after which it gradually normalises.If thecrisis in the Middle Eastdrags on longer thanwe currentlyforesee,then the economic outlook andinsolvency projectionsare subject todownwardrevision. The US is comparatively resilient to the disruptions in energymarkets that result from the Middle East conflict. The US is a netenergy exporter and is not susceptible to the loss of LNGsupplies from the Gulf. However, higher oil prices will still pushup inflation in the US, since theydirectlypassthroughtoconsumerenergyprices.USinflation isnow expectedto average3.2% in 2026,0.8 percentage pointshigher thanpreviouslyexpected. War in Middle East presentsrisk to growth outlook On28February, the US and Israel launched a large-scalemilitary campaign against Iran, targeting the regime'sleadership as well as military and security infrastructure.Iranresponded by launching ballistic missiles and drones at Israeland USbases and regional allies.It has also closed the Strait ofHormuz, a choke point for roughly one-fifth of global crude oiland seaborne gas flows.The developments have triggered asignificant increase in global energy prices, with the oil price upby55%since thestart of the crisis andEuropeangas prices upby 73%.In our baseline scenario,the Strait of Hormuz remainseffectively closed until the end of April.Further assumptions arethat attacks on Gulf infrastructure cause limited damage, anddisruptions to the Strait of Hormuz will be gradually resolvedfrom May onwards. Central banks must weigh the inflation shock caused by higherenergy prices against the risk of a stagnating economy.In theUS, the Federal Reserve follows a dual mandate ofmaximumemployment andstable prices.Fed officials are still pencilling ina rate cut before the end of the year. This would bring the end-year policy rate to 3.5%.In contrast to the Fed, the ECB isn'tstartingfrom a restrictive stance, which constrains its flexibilityto support the economy.Given the substantial inflationaryshock in the eurozone, we even expecttwo rate hikes in Juneand July, as the ECB wants to keep inflationexpectations incheck andavoid the risk of acting too late.This would bring theend-year policy ratein the eurozoneto 2.5%.Forecasts for mid-2027 suggest a return to a neutral rate of approximately 2% asenergy prices are expected to normalise. Thedrag of theMiddle East crisison global growth is estimatedto equal 0.4percentage points,leading to a2.6% growth in2026.This is justa notch abovethe growth we expected in ourOctober 2025Insolvency Outlook.If the disruption of tradeflows through the Straitof Hormuz continues longer thanexpectedor the damage to energy infrastructure is higher thanpredicted, the downward economic effects could be worse.Therefore,the risks for the global economystillleantothedownside. In the shortterm, companies may be impacted by morerestrictedaccess to credit due to ongoing economic uncertainty.Creditstandards for loans to companies in the eurozonealreadytightened in Q4 of 2025.This was driven byperceived risks tothe economic outlookas well as the lower risk tolerancedisplayed by banks, signalling a higher degree of risk aversion.In the US, banksalsoreported tighter lending stand