2026年4月拉丁美洲和加勒比宏观贫困展望：发展中国家的国别分析和预测

Latin America andthe CaribbeanPublic Disclosure Authorized MACROPOVERTYOUTLOOKPublic Disclosure Authorized Country-by-countryAnalysis and Projectionsfor the Developing WorldCountry-by-countryAnalysis and Projectionsfor the Developing WorldPublic Disclosure Authorized © 2026International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW,Washington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclu-sions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or thegovernments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does notassume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of orfailure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerningthe legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of works authored byothers does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be alimitation uponor waiver of the privileges andimmunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, thiswork may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Allqueries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. ARGENTINA Substantial progress in restoring macroeconomic stabilitythrough fiscal consolidation and exchange rate reforms.Growth rebounded to 4.4 percent in 2025 and is projectedat 3.6 percent in 2026. Inflation is declining. Poverty haseased, though high informality and inequality constrain in-clusive growth. Balancing exchange rate flexibility, reservesaccumulation, and disinflation poses risks, amid shallowbuffers and heightened international volatility. low-productivityactivities,including self-employment and plat-form-based delivery work. While the poverty rate fell from 16.4 per-cent in 2023 to 15.2 in 2024 (at the US$8.30 per day, 2021 PPPpoverty line), below several regional peers, a sizable share of thepopulation remains vulnerable. Key conditions and challenges Argentina’s recent efforts to address long-standing macroeconom-ic imbalances provide a more stable platform for economic recov-ery and poverty reduction. The country benefits from abundantnatural resources, a relatively skilled labor force, and comparativeadvantages in agro-industry and services. However, decades ofmacroeconomic instability—driven by chronic fiscal imbalances, re-current monetary financing of deficits, and a highly restrictive regu-latory environment, have weakened productivity, discouraged pri-vate investment, and heightened vulnerability to shocks. Looking ahead, the key challenge is to consolidate macroeconomicstabilizationwhile advancing structural reforms that supportgrowth. Strengthening fiscal and external buffers, improving fiscalefficiency, accelerating infrastructure investment, and rebuildinghuman capital are critical to enhancing resilience, expanding for-mal employment, and enabling sustained poverty reduction. The current economic program aims to restore macroeconomic sta-bility through fiscal consolidation, the gradual normalization of theexchange rate and capital account regime, and the removal of distor-tionary regulations. Nonetheless, the economy remains exposed tosignificant challenges, including limited fiscal and external buffers, in-flation inertia, shallow financial intermediation, and infrastructuregaps that constrain productivity growth and job creation. Recent developments Real GDP grew by 4.4 percent in 2025, largely reflecting a favorableend-2024 base effect, alongside a gradual recovery in domestic de-mand and investment in energy, agriculture, and mining. Growth wastempered by the political cycle, with mid-term elections in October.Progress in strengthening fiscal and external sustainability supporteda sharp decline in sovereign risk spreads, from around 2,000 basispoints in January 2024 to about 600 basis points by March 2026. Argentina’shousehold welfare reflects the contrast betweenlower inflation and weak job creation concentrated in informal, Fiscal consolidation remains a central pillar of the economic