GLP-1追踪：关注NBRx及DTC广告、Medicare政策影响

GLP-1 Tracker: Keeping an eye out on NBRx as DTC ads andMedicare start to switch on (W/E June 26th) This week's scripts were mostly stable, with total scripts up +0.51% WoW, or +13k inabsolute terms. Foundayo TRx declined sequentially week on week along with Wegovy Pill;specifically, Foundayo saw 19,831 TRx in week 12, -762 WoW and -3.7% sequentially.Wegovy Pill saw 149k TRx this week, down -2.5k sequentially, or ~-1.6%. Per LLY IR, IQVIAcapture rates for the Foundayo weekly data have improved, and sat at around ~90% in Q2(however they do fluctuate week to week). The equivalent rate for Zepbound is >90%.On NBRx, Lilly’s share was 53.5%, down from 54.4% last week. As a reminder - direct toconsumer advertising for Foundayo is still in its early innings, and we expect to see scriptinflection as customer/patient awareness increases over the months once full-blownadvertising in play. Finally, reimbursement of GLP-1s for obesity in Medicare began last week(1stJul) through the GLP-1 BRIDGE program. We will be monitoring channel-level scripts(TRx/NBRx) in the coming weeks to assess the impact. Courtney Breen+1 917 344 8407courtney.breen@bernsteinsg.com Woody Polglase+1 917 344 8314woody.polglase@bernsteinsg.com Louisa Qiu+1 917 344 8495louisa.qiu@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales Christian Moore+1 917 344 8555christian.moore@bernsteinsg.com Total scripts:Total weekly scripts were 2.60M, up vs last week (+0.51%, or +13k inabsolute terms). The 4-week YoY growth for sema+tirz was 33.4%, down from 35.1% lastweek. The company market share split on a TRx basis is now 60.6% Lilly (26.9% Zepbound,32.9% Mounjaro, 0.8% Foundayo) to 39.4% Novo (12.7% Wegovy pen, 20.6% Ozempic,6.0% Wegovy Pill). New starts (NBRx):Total new starts for all GLP-1 brands remain high at 210k per week.NBRx for Foundayo now sits at 10.4k vs 38.2k for Wegovy Pill, with Foundayo havingdeclined sequentially since a peak of 12.6k in W/E 12thJune (Exhibit 3). There has beensome disruption due to holidays in recent weeks, but also not the rebound we would haveexpected for an early launch product. Wegovy Pill’s starter dose (1.5mg) NBRx’s lookto be in decline (Exhibit 28). These are data points to watch, especially as broader DTCadvertising and Medicare eligibility begin to switch on. Lilly's NBRx share was 53.5%, downfrom 54.4% last week. Zepbound:Zepbound market share remained broadly stable this week at 26.9% (+0.09pp vs last week). YoY growth on a 4-week average decreased to 52% from 57%. AbsoluteZepbound prescriptions increased by +5k WoW. Mounjaro:This week Mounjaro posted 39.1% growth on a 4-week YoY basis, roughly flatvs 39.7% last week. Market share increased marginally to 32.9% from 32.7%, and absoluteprescriptions increased by +10k WoW. Semaglutide:Growth diverges significantly by indication and presentation. Wegovy Pillhad 149k TRx this week, down -2.5k sequentially, and is now in week 25 of launch. Wegovypen's 4-week average YoY growth was 37.3%, down from 40.8% last week, with absoluteWegovy pen prescriptions up +1k WoW. Ozempic continued to decline YoY at a 4-weekaverage of -13.1%, versus -12.8% last week. Overall, semaglutide posted 19.8% YoYgrowth, down from 20.7% last week. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate LLY Outperform with a price target of $1,300. DETAILS Q2E AND FY26E FOUNDAYO ESTIMATES Pricing dynamics will evolve in multiple dimensions - Cash pay patient pricing will likely increase on a blended basis, as patientsmove from lower to higher doses. Medicare will become a more dominant driver of market growth in H2, where all doses will bepriced at $249 once BRIDGE/BALANCE goes into effect & Commercial prices will also decline as payor coverage expands & isformalised across the three major PBMs by June 1st. Actual script data is still only available for the first twelve weeks of the Foundayo launch, inflections associated with fullsomepatient activation (including linear TV) as well as the BRIDGE/BALANCE program create meaningful uncertainty. Ex-USlaunches are currently only underway for those countries which reference the US regulation (e.g. UAE), while key early launchcountries (such as the UK) are likely to drive further Q4 revenue inflection outside the US. Source: IQVIA, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 5:Whilst previously tracking in-line withZepbound/Wegovy, recent data points show fewercontinuing patients on Foundayo as a % of total scripts.Something to continue to monitor as data can be patchy ORAL GLP-1 LAUNCH DYNAMICS Early, daily-to-weekly script conversion for Foundayo seems to correlate (Exhibit 12), but large gaps in conversion of absolutedaily TRx into weekly numbers continue (Exhibit 14). However, based on Lilly’s earnings commentary, we continue to view oralGLP-1s as market-expanding, and previously estimated the IQVIA capture rate for Foundayo at ~70%. IR has now said that inaggregate Foundayo’s capture rate in IQVIA is around 90% now. We agree with management that this launch is l