中国医药与生物技术：2025年第四季度医院销售额及2026年第一季度GLP-1零售销售额追踪

China Pharma and Biotech: Quarterly hospital sales (4Q25) andGLP-1 retail sales (1Q26) tracker GLP-1 1Q26(according to Pharmcube retail sales database):China’s GLP-1 retail salesgrew 58% QoQ in 1Q26.Tizepatide contributed the most and grew 187%; mazdutidegrew with market at 51%. For both TZP and Maz, retails sales had been the major channeluntil recently (TZP’s hospital listing should have accelerated after NRDL inclusion in Jan, butit may not be the case for Maz). There were negligible sales in hospitals as of 4Q25 as perPharmcube’s database (1Q26 not yet available). So we think the growth rates in the retailmarket are representative for both products. (However, we rely less on the absolute salesvalue where there may be a gap. We estimate Maz FY25 sales at CNY600-800 Mn, butthe database showed 200 Mn only.) At any rate,we could see that Maz is growing withmarket and still quite rapidly, the same message as communicated by managementearlier. Also, Innovent’s announcement of 3.8 Bn product sales in 1Q (50% YoY, 15% QoQ),500 Mn incremental on top of 4Q25, and we think at least 150-200 Mn should come fromMaz. Rebecca Liang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2656rebecca.liang@bernsteinsg.com Ellie Li+852 2123 2621ellie.li@bernsteinsg.com FY’25 total drug sales (sample hospital + retail channel) as reported by Pharmcubedeclined to CNY1,350 Bn, down 1% YoYfrom CNY1,363 Bn in FY’24, with 4Q25 salesof CNY384 Bn (+3 YoY), modestly exceeding the previous 2-y average growth of 1%.From hospitals, FY’25 sales declined to CNY868 Bn, down 3% from CNY898 Bn in FY’24,reflecting Gx erosion under ongoing VBP and a notable slowdown in innovative salesgrowth. Innovative drugs (as categorized by Pharmcube) saw its growth engine cool notablyin FY’25, with sales reaching CNY410 Bn (+5% YoY), marking a visible deceleration vs.prior years (+12% in FY’24 and +9% in FY’23). The slowdown was primarily driven byweaker momentum in the sample hospital channel, where sales grew merely 1% YoY toCNY298 Bn. On the other hand, the retail channel remained a relative bright spot, with salesrising 14% YoY to CNY113 Bn, partially offsetting the softness on the hospital end. Narrowing down to key assets,Innovent’s PCSK9 tafolicimabdelivered strongperformance after its 2024 NRDL inclusion, with 4Q25 sales reaching CNY194 Mn (+62%QoQ), driving market share up by 6.5ppt to 23%. In parallel, Junshi’s PD-1 mAb toripalimabmaintained robust momentum in 4Q25, underpinned by continued indication expansion andimproved commercialization execution. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Hansoh, Jiangsu Hengrui, Kelun-Biotech, BeOne Medicines, and Innovent Outperform; and Akeso, Zai Lab, SinoBiopharm, and CSPC Market-Perform. DETAILS Note: Pharmcube’s sample hospital sales data are a subset of the actual sales, with multipliers ranging from 150% to 300%,usually higher for newly approved and less mature drugs and lower for generics. Market size numbers below should be readwith this context in mind. Sales data from Pharmcube will be adjusted to some extent based on customer feedback and internalquality control processes to better reflect market performance. Thus, there may be minor inconsistencies between the sales datareported in previous quarters and the current quarter’s figures. GLP-1 RETAIL SALES EXHIBIT 1:1Q26 China GLP-1 sales from retail channelgrew 210% YoY to CNY1.3 Bn; both TZP and Maz havesignificant sales growth QoQ, but TZP has a greatershare gain EXHIBIT 2:Tirzepatide volume surged c.10x QoQ in1Q26 on an 80% price cut, while mazdutide andsemaglutide saw more moderate growth amid milderprice adjustments Pharmcube, Bernstein analysis SELECTED INNOVATIVE DRUGS EXHIBIT 7:4Q25 China diabetes sample hospital sales dropped to CNY9.3 Bn (+7% YoY, -7% QoQ), with FY'25 salesat CNY38 Bn. GLP-1s continued its share gain at the expense of DPP-4 and SGLT-2 EXHIBIT 8:4Q25 China GLP-1 sample hospital sales declined to CNY2.2 Bn (+36% YoY, -4% QoQ), with FY'25 sales atCNY8.3 Bn. Legacy GLP-1s's share saw a rebound at the expense of semaglutide EXHIBIT 9:4Q25 China PD-(L)1 BsAb sample hospital sales reached CNY177 Mn (+152%YoY, +17%QoQ), with FY'25sales at CNY504 Mn; market shares remained steady in 4Q25 EXHIBIT 10:4Q25 PD-(L)1 mAb sample hospital sales declined to CNY2.5 Bn (+15% YoY, -11% QoQ), with FY'25 salesat CNY10 Bn; toripalimab sustained strong share gains on continuous indication expansion and improvement incommercialization EXHIBIT 11:4Q25 China EGFR-TKI sample hospital sales declined to CNY2.0 Bn (+7% YoY, -10% QoQ), with FY'25sales at CNY8.5 Bn; 3rd gen EGFR-TKIs continued to dominant the market EXHIBIT 12:4Q25 China 3rd gen EGFR-TKI sample hospital sales dropped to CNY1.7 Bn (+10% YoY, -10% QoQ), withFY'25 sales at CNY6.9 Bn; aumolertinib saw a 2% share loss in 4Q25 EXHIBIT 13:4Q25 China PCSK9 sample hospital sales reached CNY831 Mn (+59% YoY, +17% QoQ), with FY'25 salesat CNY2.5 Bn; Innovent's tafolecimab sustained strong momentum