GLP-1追踪器：长周末影响5月29日当周处方量

GLP-1 tracker: Long weekend impacts weekly scripts (W/E May29th) This week’s scripts were (as expected, and flagged previously) impacted by the longweekend, and hence total scripts were down ~6% for the class. Foundayo saw 16,982 TRxin its eighth week, +971 and +6.1% sequentially, given it is still in its launch phase. WegovyPill, on the other hand, saw 134k TRx this week, down -11.9k (-8%) sequentially. On NBRx,Lilly maintains a share of ~53% despite volatility at the start of 2026, due to the Wegovy Pill Courtney Breen+1 917 344 8407courtney.breen@bernsteinsg.com Woody Polglase+1 917 344 8314woody.polglase@bernsteinsg.com Total scripts:Total weekly scripts for the week ending 29th May were 2.44M, down vslast week (-5.67%, or -146k in absolute terms). The 4-week YoY growth for sema+tirz was39.2%, down slightly on 39.3% last week. The company market share split (sema vs tirz)on a TRx basis is now 59.7% Lilly (26.4% Zepbound, 32.6% Mounjaro, 0.7% Foundayo) to40.3% Novo (13.3% Wegovy pen, 5.8% Wegovy pill, 21.2% Ozempic). Louisa Qiu+1 917 344 8495louisa.qiu@bernsteinsg.com Christian Moore+1 917 344 8555christian.moore@bernsteinsg.com Zepbound:Weekly market share for Zepbound decreased to 26.4% (-0.48 pp vs lastweek). YoY growth (4-wk avg) decreased to 79% from 82% (although impacted by recentdrops). Whilst it has appeared like Zepbound NBRx has declined post-Wegovy pill launch(Exhibit 18), absolute numbers of NBRxs have held at around 60k per week this year(Exhibit 17). Zepbound growth split by presentations is, unsurprisingly, also volatile inlight of IQVIA reporting (Exhibit 15, Exhibit 16). Mounjaro: This weekMounjaroposted Semaglutide:Growth diverges significantly by indication and presentation. Wegovy Pillhad ~134k TRx this week, -12k scripts. Wegovy pen's 4-week avg YoY growth is ~45%.However, Ozempic (T2D) continues to decline YoY at a 4-week avg of -12.5% (versus lastweek at -12.6%). Overall, semaglutide (Ozempic and Wegovy) posted 20.4% YoY growth, Recent Foundayo/Orfo notes:LLY: With an earlier than expected approval, we frameearly expectations for Lilly's oral (orfo / Foundayo) GLP-1 launch /// LLY: Refining Foundayo(orfo) scenarios for 2026 - $2.0B well within reach; Raising estimates for 2026 after Q1: EliLilly: 26Q1 wrap - raising revenue estimates to 87.3B FY (+34% yoy), (further refines Q2Foundayo estimates to $157m) INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate LLY Outperform with a price target of $1,300. DETAILS ORAL GLP-1 LAUNCH DYNAMICS Early, daily-to-weekly script conversion for Foundayo seems to correlate (Exhibit 8), but large gaps in conversion of absolutedaily TRx into weekly numbers continue; ~12% vs ~79% for Wegovy Pill in week 5 (Exhibit 9). However, based on Lilly’s earningscommentary, we continue to view oral GLP-1s as market-expanding, and estimate the IQVIA capture rate for Foundayo at ~70%(Exhibit 7). We agree with management that this launch is likely to play out over months, not weeks, for a couple of reasons: (1)this is an entirely new molecule (Wegovy Pill is a sema line extension), and requires greater physician education, and (2) given At the 2026 Novo AGM, Novo (covered by Justin Smith) reported that weekly Wegovy pill TRx were 3x higher than tirzepatideat week 10, whereas IQVIA prescription data suggested 1.6× (assuming tirzepatide = Zepbound). The patient/TRx countsreported by Novo may somewhat differ to our data considering that: (1) Novo has access to more timely and granular data, (2)NovoCare & other scripts may not yet be fully captured in IQVIA, and (3) in the future, adherence rates may influence observedpatterns; i.e. adherence rates below 100% would imply a higher actual patient count than TRx suggests. Novo has beensuggesting IQVIA has a capture rate of only 50% for the Wegovy pill to date - similar to the low capture rates we saw for the Source: IQVIA Daily TRx, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 11:At the 2026 Novo AGM, Novo reported thatweekly Wegovy pill TRx were three times higher thantirzepatide at week 10 TOTAL PRESCRIPTIONS (TRX) & NEW PRESCRIPTIONS (NRX) TRx demonstrates total scripts, whereas NRx demonstrates all new prescriptions (regardless of whether they are for newpatients, or for renewals for current patients). Zepbound vials and kwikpens are offered in the LillyDirect DTC channelSource: IQVIA, Bernstein analysis Zepbound vials and kwikpens are offered in the LillyDirect DTC channelSource: IQVIA, Bernstein analysis NEW TO BRAND PRESCRIPTIONS (NBRX) NBRx data - new to brand are scripts just for new users, that haven’t filled a script for that brand in the past (either naive tothe GLP1 market, or switching from another brand). This demonstrates with greater fidelity what we’ve seen from the CVS Note, the new to brand weekly data is released by IQVIA at a lag to the rest of the weekly data. Please reach out if you’d likeupdated graphs before our next tracker when the data is released next week. TRX 4-WEEKLY ROLLING TRENDS TOTAL GLP-1 SCRIPT