提高交易量：2025年5月行业交易量 关键绩效指标追踪器（附演示文稿）

Trevor Williams * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1546 | twilliams3@jefferies.comAlexander Glockner * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-8729 | aglockner@jefferies.comRyan Levine * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-1512 | rlevine4@jefferies.com PYPL•Branded TPV (new definition) grew 4% Y/Y FXN, was ~steady with 4Q's 6%when adjustingfor Leap Year.•Gross take rate declined -7bps Y/Y (ex-hedges) vs. -6bps in 4Qdriven by Braintree TPVdeclines (shedding higher gross take rate TPV) and growth in payouts and PayPal/Venmodebit.•We est. Branded gross take rate pressure eased to -3bps Y/Yfrom -6bps in 4Q.•Net take rate (ex-hedges) +2bps Y/Y vs. flat in 4Qdriven by favorable Branded mix (highermix of TPV from verticals/geos with lower funding costs) and Braintree's slower TPV growth.Legacy Acquirers:•GPN organic Merchant growth slowed less than the market in 1Q.We est. organic Merchantgrowth slowed ~120bps to 4.9% Y/Y in 1Q, a ~40bps smaller decel. than V/MA US volumes--attributed to GPN having less discretionary and Easter spending sensitivity.•FI Merchant adj. rev. growth slowed ~5ppts, with decels across all sub-segments.FIMerchant adj. rev. growth slowed ~5ppts to ~5.5% Y/Y in 1Q. SMB revs slowed ~5ppts to 7%Y/Y, Enterprise slowed ~7ppts to 8%, and Processing slowed ~4ppts to -9%.US card volume growth slowed modestly beyond the impact of Leap Year in 1Q; trends improved/~stableinto April, with underlying consumer spend noted to be resilient so far.US VOLUME - NETWORKSV US Payment VolumeMA US Purchase VolumeMA US Switched VolumeAXP US Consumer Billed BizECOMMERCEPYPL Branded Volume FXNV CB CNP (ex-travel)MA CB CNP (ex-travel)PYPL CB TPVSMB & ENTERPRISEFI SMB VolumeClover (FI) GPVFI Enterprise TransactionsSquare US Seller GPVCROSS-BORDER (Y/Y FXN)V CB (ex-intra-Europe)MA CB (ex-intra- Europe)V CB Travel (CP + CNP)MA CB Travel (CP + CNP)V CB CNP (ex-travel)MA CB CNP (ex-travel)PYPL CB TPVCOMMERCIAL (Y/Y FXN)V Commercial VolumeAXP Comm'l Svcs Billed BizSource: Company materials, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 50 - 55 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 4Q231Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q241Q251Q vs.4Q1Q vs. 4Q(ex-LY)Apr.MTDApr. vs.1QApr. vs. 1Q(ex-LY)5.3%6.1%5.1%5.2%7.3%5.9%-1.4%-0.4%8%2.1%1.1%4.4%6.7%6.7%7.0%9.1%7.1%-2.0%-1.0%5%7%6%6%9%7%-2.0%-1.0%8%1.0%0.0%7.3%7.8%6.2%5.7%9.0%7.1%-1.8%-0.8%6%5%5%6%4%-2.0%0.0%12%16%15%15%17%14%-3.0%-2.0%13%-1.0%-2.0%18%21%20%19%21%19%-2.0%-1.0%20%1.0%0.0%5%7%6%7%9%6%-3.0%-2.0%8%4%4%4%3%-1.0%0.0%17%19%17%14.5%14.4%8.0%-6.4%-5.4%12%8%12%17%13%-4.0%-3.0%7.5%6.5%5.6%4.9%6.9%5.6%-1.3%-0.3%16%16%14%13%16%13%-3.0%-2.0%13%0.0%-1.0%19%19%18%17%20%16%-4.0%-3.0%15%-1.0%-2.0%20%17%15%12%16%12%-4.0%-3.0%13%1.0%0.0%18%17%15%15%18%12%-6.0%-5.0%14%2.0%1.0%12%16%15%15%17%14%-3.0%-2.0%13%-1.0%-2.0%18%21%20%19%21%19%-2.0%-1.0%20%1.0%0.0%5%7%6%7%9%6%-3.0%-2.0%8%7%7%5%6%6%0.0%1.0%1%2%2%1%4%2%-2.0%-1.0% MAY2025CONFIDENTIALTurn Up the VOLUME(S): Industry-Wide Payment Volume & KPI TrackerMay 2025US Payments, Processors, and FinTech Trevor WilliamsEquity Analyst+1 (415) 229 1546twilliams3@jefferies.comAlex GlocknerEquity Associate+1 (415) 229-8729aglockner@jefferies.comRyan LevineEquity Associate+1 (415) 229-1512rlevine4@jefferies.com Table of Contents(click on text to jump straight to the page)Visa & Mastercard1)Global & US volumes, and international volumes by region: MA growth continues tooutpace Visa; the gap narrowed in 1Q …………….…..………..…………………………………….……4-92)Volume mix by region:US represents~50% of V’s volume vs. 35% for MA; V stands tobenefit more from a reacceleration in US inflation ……….………………………….………………10-113)US growth vs. PCE:V & MA’s US volumes growth as a multiple of PCE compressed modestlyin 1Q ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………12-144)Avg.transaction sizes:Avg. transaction sizes moving lower internationally, from digitizationof smaller dollar transactions……………… ……….………………............................................15-163)Relative market shares:MAhas taken consistent share over the past five years, led byinternational debit………………………………..……………………………………………………………….......17-194)Cross border volumes:Cross-border growth slowed in 1Q, improved into April driven byEaster, Ramadan timing…………………………………………………………………………………205)Visa Direct/New Flows:Visa Direct and New Flows/CMS slowed in 1Q…..……………………….216)Value-added services:V & MA’s VAS now contributing ~half of net revenue growth………..22Acquirers, Clover, SQ7)Acquirer revenue and volumes:Large acquirer growth remains a mixed bag...........…23-268)XYZ Seller, Clover:Gap b/w Clover GPV growth and XYZ Seller narrowed 5ppts in 1Q…..27 Yields/Take Rates9)V & MA net revenue yields:MA net rev. yields expansionaccel’din 1Q on faster pace ofTxnProcessing, DA yield expansion; V’s slowed on faster Incentives growth………..…………..2910)XYZ and Clover yields:Squaretxnmargins declined ~3bps Y/Y from faster growth from largersellers; we estimate Clover yields of ~98bps, up 15bps Y/Y…