GLP1追踪：Zepbound持续飙升，部分销量仍有待IQVIA验证（截至5月23日当周）

In the week ending 23rdMay, total GLP-1 scripts increase+4.3%on the previous week.There are a couple of technical notes around the big jump in Zepbound volumes. This is partlydue to a correction from last week’s data in which a retail supplier did not report Zepboundvolumes. This week, IQVIA has said that a larger volume than the previous 2 weeks wasrecorded for a retail supplier (the supplier has confirmed the data is correct, but IQVIA isvalidating the volumes). See below for more details.Semaglutide and Tirzepatide are tracking+50.6%in the most recent 4 weeks vs prior year.Total market shares jumped for Lilly, recording54.1% (M&Z) vs 45.9% (O&W). Novo’sgrowth (O&W) remained low - with just 1.6% growth in the most recent 4 weeks, vs prior 4weeks, and +11.4% vs prior year.Total scripts:Total weekly incretin scripts for the week ending 23rd May were 1.96M, up+81k/+4.3% on last week. The 4-weekly seq growth rate increased to3.7%from 2.2%last week and the 4-weekly YoY growth dropped slightly to50.6%,vs 54.5% last week(Exhibit 7, Exhibit 8).LLY’s market share:(across just semaglutide & tirzepatide) for the most recent weekincreased to 54.1%,from 53.2% last week. This week the tirzepatide strength was drivenby Zepbound (again) 22.2% vs 20.9% (+1.3%). Total tirzepatide growth of +118.9% yoysits well above the 1.6x supply expansion that LLY is guided to (Exhibit 8).Mounjaro’s growth is still robustwith 4-week YoY growth rate at 70% vs 83% last week,as we lap bumps in April/May 2024 (Exhibit 7, Exhibit 8, Exhibit 9).Zepbound rockets again.4-week average YoY growth was at 300% vs 329% last week(Exhibit 8), with 40k more prescriptions (vs 7.7k for Wegovy).Trulicity declines are in the MSD rangewith 4-week YoY growth rate down to -5.1%(Exhibit 8).NOVO(covered by Florent Cespedes): Market share decreased (to 45.9% vs 46.8% lastweek), demonstrating 11.4% 4 weekly YoY growth, down again from 12.1% YoY growthlast week. We are still not yet seeing the impact of Novo bringing more starter doses intothe US, or evidence of the NovoCare Pharmacy, or cash-pay options spurring new growth(Exhibit 11, Exhibit 12).We continue to eagerly await script data over the coming weeks as things areexpected to get more dynamic:We hope to gain a better handle on Zepbound actualsfrom the past two weeks. And, we are eager to see the impact of the CVS Caremark -Wegovy preferred positioning, compounding becoming illegal (May 22nd) & the loweredinitial dose for Wegovy ($199 for the first month, until June 30).www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingLLYOSPXO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe rate LLY Outperform with a price target of $1,100.US BIOPHARMACEUTICALS DETAILSIQVIA commentary on Zepbound volumes:29/05-Zepbound Increase Data Week Ending 05.23.25 – Summary:•For data week ending 5/23/25, increase in Lilly’s product Zepbound occurred in retail channel•A retail supplier’s trends showing additional increase compared to prior two data weeks•Supplier confirmed volumes are correct•We are working directly with the supplier to validate volumes from prior two weeks•Further communication will occur once more information is known•Rx RAPID Daily: Variability may occur due to projections23/05- Zepbound Increase – Summary:1. Data week ending 5/16/25 retail supplier did not report data to IQVIA. Imputations used to accommodate this period ofnon-reporting. Increase in Zepbound’s prescription volumes observed, due to imputationsEXHIBIT 1:GLP1 Weekly TRx data010000020000030000040000050000060000070000003-Feb-2303-Apr-23Source: IQVIA, Bernstein analysisUS BIOPHARMACEUTICALS 03-Jun-2303-Aug-2303-Oct-2303-Dec-2303-Feb-2403-Apr-2403-Jun-2403-Aug-2403-Oct-24GLP-1 TRx Weekly (data up to May-23) MOUNJAROOZEMPICSAXENDATRULICITYVICTOZA 2-PAKVICTOZA 3-PAKWEGOVYZEPBOUND03-Dec-2403-Feb-2503-Apr-25EXHIBIT 2:05000010000015000020000025000030000035000003-Feb-2303-Apr-23Source: IQVIA, Bernstein analysis GLP1 Weekly NRx data03-Jun-2303-Aug-2303-Oct-2303-Dec-2303-Feb-2403-Apr-24GLP-1 NRx Weekly (data up to May-23) MOUNJAROOZEMPICSAXENDATRULICITYVICTOZA 2-PAKVICTOZA 3-PAKWEGOVYZEPBOUND03-Jun-2403-Aug-2403-Oct-2403-Dec-2403-Feb-2503-Apr-25 Source: IQVIA, Bernstein analysisEXHIBIT 6:Last week's market share evolutionMarket share - TRxMounjaroLLYZepboundLLYTrulicityLLYTotalLLYOzempicNOVOWegovyNOVOVictoza/SaxendaNOVOTotalNOVOMounjaroLLYZepboundLLYM&ZLLYOzempicNOVOWegovyNOVOO&WNOVOMarket share -TRx just sema/tirzSource: IQVIA, Bernstein analysis 09-May-25OZEMPIC NOVO NORDISK8MG/3ML(2MG)OZEMPIC NOVO NORDISK4MG/3ML(1MG)OZEMPIC NOVO NORDISK2MG/3ML(0.25-0.5MG)OZEMPIC NOVO NORDISK2MG/1.5ML(1MG)OZEMPIC NOVO NORDISK2MG/1.5ML(0.25-0.5MG)09-May-2509-May-25WEGOVY NOVO NORDISK2.4MG/0.75MLWEGOVY NOVO NORDISK1.7MG/0.75MLWEGOVY NOVO NORDISK 1MG/0.5MLWEGOVY NOVO NORDISK0.5MG/0.5MLWEGOVY NOVO NORDISK0.25MG/0.5ML23 May 2025 - GLP1 tracker: