2026 EMEA 私人资本展望：年中更新

2026 EMEA Private CapitalOutlook: Midyear Update Institutional Research Group Nalin PatelDirector, EMEA PrivateCapital Researchnalin.patel@pitchbook.com Checking in on our 2026 EMEA private capital predictions Navina RajanSenior Research Analyst,EMEA Private Capitalnavina.rajan@pitchbook.com PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. Nicolas Moura, CFA, CAIASenior Research Analyst,EMEA Private Capitalnicolas.moura@pitchbook.com 2026 outlooks Charlie FarberManager, Data Analysis 3The ratio of PE-backed companies to public companies in Europe will reach afresh record of 2.3x. Oscar AllawaySenior Data Analyst Adi GeorgeAssociate Data Analystpbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.comPublished on 24 June 2026 5US investor participation will reach 25% of European PE deal count. 7Europe’s IPO window will stay open, with mostly profitable listings. 9AI will make up more than half of European VC deal value. 11Stockholm will challenge the big three European private market hubs: London,Paris, and Berlin. 13Saudi private capital markets will continue developing in the MENA region. Introduction At the end of every year, we share our views on how the year ahead will unfold forEMEA private capital. In December 2025, we offeredsix outlooks for 2026, and itis time to take stock of those trends to see how they are tracking. We look forwardto sharing our takes on these and other developments throughout the year in ourquarterly reports, which include theEuropean PE Breakdown,European VentureReport, andEuropean VC Valuations Report. 2026 has thrown several challenges at private market participants. The principalshock arrived in the second half of Q1, when the Iran war broke out. Peace talks andceasefires have taken place since then, with reports of a peace deal being brokered.Upward inflationary pressure is filtering through amid volatility in oil supplies andenergy prices. As a result, central banks will likely hold or raise interest rates in H2,which could lead to higher borrowing costs for leveraged buyouts, compressingreturns for PE deals. Along with the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the global AIfunding race has been a key theme in 2026. VC dealmaking within AI has balloonedand continues to set new records. The sector’s substantial capital requirements,rapid growth rates, tech development pace, and lofty valuations have created a fear ofmissing out not seen since the peak post-pandemic years. Talk of an AI bubble lingers,but there are few signs that investor capital deployment and AI company expenditurewill slow in H2. The public-private convergence is another trend at play in financial markets. Privatemarkets have grown in recent years, and often at the expense of public markets bycompanies staying private longer, returning via take-privates, or seeking alternativeliquidity from private backers outside traditional IPOs. This has increased theopportunities in private markets as strategies such as secondaries and venture debtemerge in Europe. Public listings remain an option for the largest companies; however,the path to an IPO has evolved, especially given the recent public performance offormerly privately held companies. Regional nuances are also creating an interesting backdrop in private markets. InEurope, the UK has continued to develop into a private market leader. However, majordeals, exits, and funds are popping up across Europe. And whilst the US remains theglobal private market hub, US investors have targeted Europe as a potentially cheaperand less volatile destination for capital deployment. Middle Eastern private marketsare expected to be most affected by the recent geopolitical conflicts, which couldcreate opportunities for emerging private markets outside the region. Our other outlook reports from December 2025 coverUS PE,US VC,APAC privatecapital,healthcare,AI, andPE industries. OUTLOOK Nicolas Moura, CFA, CAIASenior Research Analyst, EMEA Private Capitalnicolas.moura@pitchbook.com The ratio of PE-backed companies to public companiesin Europe will reach a fresh record of 2.3x. Europe’s PE universe has expanded dramatically over the past decade. Between 2014 and2025, the number of PE-backed companies doubled to roughly 13,800, whilst the numberof publicly listed firms has remained largely stagnant, hovering between 5,700 and 7,000for the past two decades. PE-backed companies first outnumbered listed firms in 2011,marking the start of private markets’ structural ascent. The next milestone arrived in 2024,when the PE-backed cohort was twice the size of the public universe. We expected this divergence to persist in 2026. The growth of PE-backed businesseswas anticipated to continue outpacing public market growth as PE allocations rose withininvestor portfolios. Historically, the asset class had delivered superior risk-adjustedreturns, attracting b