2025年emea私人资本展望：年中更新（英）

2025 EMEA Private CapitalOutlook: Midyear Update PitchBook Data, Inc. Nizar TarhuniExecutive Vice President ofResearch and Market Intelligence Paul CondraGlobal Head of PrivateMarkets Research Checking in on our 2025 EMEA privatecapital predictions Nalin PatelDirector of Research, EMEAPrivate Capital PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. Institutional Research Group Analysis Nalin PatelDirector of Research,EMEA Private Capitalnalin.patel@pitchbook.com 2025 outlooks Navina RajanSenior Research Analyst,EMEA Private Capitalnavina.rajan@pitchbook.com p.3European PE middle-market fundraising will return to growth. p. 5PE GP-led secondary exits will grow by double digits. Nicolas Moura, CFA, CAIASenior Research Analyst,EMEA Private Capitalnicolas.moura@pitchbook.com p. 7European venture debt deal value will not match 2024 but willremain an important theme. Data p. 9VC-backed IPOs will have a concentrated recovery. Charlie FarberManager Data Analysis p. 11AI investment will remain front and centre across Europe withnew records likely. Oscar AllawayData Analystpbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com p. 13MENA private market fundraising will develop as capital flows intothe region remain strong. Publishing Designed byAdriana Hansen Published on June 24, 2025 Introduction In December 2024, we provided six predictions in our2025 EMEA Private CapitalOutlook. As we approach the midway point of 2025, we are checking in to see howour outlooks are trending. Private markets have experienced a complex landscapemarked by liquidity challenges, strategic shifts, and emerging opportunities. Ouroutlooks cover key themes that we believe will shape activity in 2025. A tougher dealmaking environment for portfolio companies has lingered in 2025.Interest rates are now flattening and coming down, as the latest rate cycle led toan increasing cost of debt for transactions. This has helped debt providers buthas hurt those seeking debt to finance. As a result, strategies such as private debtand venture debt have gained attention. On the flipside, large deals that requiresubstantial amounts of debt tied to elevated interest rates have fallen out of favour. The ongoing liquidity crunch has been top of mind for market participants. Thelack of exits, particularly on the VC side, has provided a challenge for GPs togenerate returns for LPs. Companies that were eyeing an IPO in 2025 are likelyreconsidering given the fallout from announced US tariffs. Despite PE exitsshowing greater resilience, fewer distributions flowing back to LPs have givenrise to secondaries transactions. Secondaries have emerged as a prevalent topicas investors seek liquidity solutions amid a volatile exit market characterised byuncertainty around valuations. The fundraising landscape has been mixed. PE GPs have closed major middle-market funds and megafunds in recent quarters, pushing towards new records.Within VC, fundraising has been trending downwards since 2022, largely focusedon large fund closes from established names. Fewer VC exits are resulting in lesscapital being recycled into new funding efforts. Opportunities in sectors and regions persist despite the gloomy outlook. AI iseverywhere, and the broadening range of applications is expected to promoteactivity. Geopolitical tension rages on, and this could create opportunities in lesser-known regional pockets. If unpredictability persists in the US, investors may lookelsewhere to allocate capital. However, a precarious global financial ecosystemremains as we move through 2025. Outlook: European PE middle-market fundraising willreturn to growth. Nicolas Moura, CFA, CAIASenior Analyst, EMEA Private Capitalnicolas.moura@pitchbook.com Middle-market fundraising includes fund sizes between €100 million and €5 billion.These often represent the heartbeat of the PE industry and exclude megafunds,which heavily skew fundraising data. In our series of analyst notes onThe Riseof European Megafunds Part IandPart II, we explain how megafunds have beenraising the bulk of the capital in recent years in Europe. As such, we prefer to look atmiddle-market fundraising to get a more accurate picture of the health of PE. Sincepeaking in 2021 at more than €70 billion in capital raised, middle-market fundraisingin Europe has stalled and failed to surpass its 2021 levels. This was a result of twofactors: deteriorating financing due to higher-for-longer interest rates and a mutedexit market in which LPs have not been receiving distributions they can reinvestinto fundraising. However, we expect 2025 to look much different from the previous three years, reversing the middle-market fundraising trend back into YoY growthterritory and finally surpassing its previous high. Deal activity in Europe recoveredin 2024 and grew more than 35% YoY in value. If we extrapolate this growth formiddle-market