香港房屋景观导航2026

Hong Kong HousingLandscape Navigator 2026 April 2026 Content Executive Summary Hong Kong’s housing landscape has reached a decisive turning point. After a prolonged correction, the privatehousing market’s synchronised recovery in prices and transaction volumes signals a firmly established rebound.Concurrently, the public housing sector has pivoted from acute shortage to a strategic harvest phase, creating ahistoric window to shift focus from simply producing new units to proactively redeveloping a rapidly ageing stock. Our Hong Kong Foundation (OHKF) offers an updated, data-driven analysis of these emerging dynamics. The privatehousing market has successfully bottomed out, driven by demographic growth and a lower-interest-rate environment.While near-term completions face a cyclical trough, developer sentiment has pivoted towards aggressive forward-positioning. However, with market absorption accelerating and inventory tightening, a proactive and flexible landdisposal framework is vital to anchoring long-term stability and preventing future price volatility. For the public housing sector, the challenge is shifting from supply expansion to housing estate redevelopment. Asmore public rental housing (PRH) units age and maintenance costs rise, relying mainly on piecemeal upkeep isbecoming increasingly unsustainable; at the same time, stronger public housing completions expected over thecoming decade provide the necessary buffer above the Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS) target and create awindow to institutionalise systematic redevelopment through dedicated decanting reserves, transparent accounting,and mixed-tenure models. The following report provides a detailed analysis of these trends, offering a comprehensive outlook on private marketresilience and a strategic redevelopment blueprint for the public housing sector. Part I: Private Housing Market Review 1.The Hong Kong private housing market entered a “double-growth” recovery in 2025, with prices rebounding by 3.3% and transaction volumessurging 18.3%. This synchronised upturn signals a definitive end to the 2021–2024 correction. Momentum was concentrated in the entry-levelsegment, with Class A units (under 40 m²) outperforming the market at 4.1% price growth, and transactions for sub-HK$4 million homes surging29.4% year-on-year. This resurgence was catalysed by policy tailwinds, including stamp duty threshold adjustments and the withdrawal of “spicymeasures”, which revitalised both investor interest and entry-level demand. 2.Following the 2024 supply peak, private housing completions fell 24% to 18,448 units in 2025. This moderation, alongside rising transactions,pushed net absorption back into positive territory for the first time since 2021. Consequently, unsold stock dropped 18% from its 2023 peak to18,694 units. While an inventory overhang persists, eased pressure has shifted developers’ strategy from aggressive, volume-driven priceconcessions towards profit-optimised pricing, signalling that the most acute supply-side imbalances have now subsided. 3.Building on the market recovery, developers’ strategy has shifted towards aggressive forward-positioning. 2025/26 saw a “dual-track” recoveryin the land market: land premium revenue rebounded through both public tenders and lease modifications / land exchanges. Bidding activityintensified, with bid spreads narrowing and participation rising to 8–9 bidders per site, signalling a unified market conviction that land values haveestablished a firm floor. Part II: Private Housing Market Outlook 4.Average annual completions are projected at 17,100 units for the 2026–2030 period. Reflecting a thinning near-term pipeline, supply is expectedto hit a cyclical trough in the immediate term, dipping to around 16,700 units in 2026 and further to around 15,400 units in 2027. Following this lowpoint, completions are anticipated to steadily climb from 2028 to 2030, supported by a gradual recovery in both superstructure commencementsand the estimated flat yield from spade-ready land supply. 5.Entering the next ten-year segment, the private housing supply outlook remains constructive, underpinned by sufficient government-led /co-ordinated land supply. However, realisation depends on market-driven delivery schedules. Our scenario analysis indicates that, depending onpolicy adjustments and market recalibrations, average annual completions for 2031–2035 could range from 13,300 to 24,800 units. 6.Hong Kong’s housing demand is anchored by a robust V-shaped population recovery to 7.51 million by late 2025. While organic domestic driverslike births have softened, a massive influx of external talent and students has created a resilient new demand pillar. Given that the new arrivals areactively driving the rental market to record highs, coupled with mortgage rates falling below the 3.5% cap, the market has pivoted towardshomeownership as borrowing costs have notably fallen below rental yields. 7.Integrating demand and s