香港房屋景观导航仪2025

Hong Kong Housing Landscape Navigator 2025 April 2025 Executive Summary Hong Kong’s housing landscape faces continued challenges. In the face of headwinds, dwindling private housingland sales and ballooning public housing construction expenditures have dominated headlines, while the role andnecessity of subsidised housing have also come under scrutiny. Our Hong Kong Foundation (OHKF) offers an updated analysis of these recurring themes. For private housing,with development periods lengthening by 33% in recent years, the resulting heightening development risks deterreddevelopers’ interest and willingness to submit competitive bids in the land sales market. Hence, while average annualcompletions are forecasted at 17,100 units in 2025–2029, a gradual decline is expected. For public housing, a harvest phase in completion is forthcoming with the Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS) targetset to be exceeded by some 7% to 31%. Nevertheless, Light Public Housing (LPH) remains indispensable in reducingwaiting time by 2026/27. Behind the positive supply outlook, however, is fast-growing costs. Given the buffer abovethe LTHS target, there is room for prioritisation based on cost-effectiveness to contain expenditures. For subsidised housing, competition with private housing is limited despite a broadening overlap in lump sum prices.Serving as the primary home ownership avenue for low- to middle-income families, it offers a quicker solution thannew units by releasing valuable public housing resources for more needy applicants. Larger subsidised housing units,however, are needed to entice upgrading and boost turnover. The following section will provide a detailed analysis of the upcoming trends in private and public housing supply,coupled with a review of the role and function of subsidised housing. Part I: Private Housing Supply 1.Average annual completions are anticipated to be around 17,100 units in 2025–2029. However, completions will be front-loaded with around20,000 units in 2025 and 2026, then gradually decline to around 15,000 to 16,000 units annually between 2027 and 2029. Although weforecasted this trend in last year’s report, its occurrence was pushed back due to longer development periods, where some 70% of unitscompleted in 2024 experienced delays ranging from one to more than six months. 2.The noticeable slowdown in every stage of the private housing development cycle validates this trend. In 2024, approved pre-sale consentapplications, superstructure commencements, and estimated flat yields from private housing land supply continued to decline. Weak fundamentals,compounded by higher development risk aversion, led to conservatism in the land sale market, where successful government land tenders since2022/23 have become fewer and declined in plot size and accommodation value. 3.An analysis of over 100 government sites tendered between 2011 and 2020 that have completed the development cycle shows that developmentperiods have lengthened by 33% in recent years. Further segmentation reveals that more than half, or 57%, of the development period involvesthe pre- and post-construction phases. These two phases could be significantly lengthened by site complexities and requirements to constructpublic facilities, which would entail multiple approvals from different authorities. We, therefore, urge the government to continue to streamlineapproval procedures and simplify conditions in its land grants. 4.Looking at a broader time horizon since 1997, pendulum swings were observed in average annual completions every ten years. Nevertheless,we expect that although completions will fluctuate in 2025–2034, the magnitude of change vis-à-vis 2017–2024 will be milder than between1997–2006 and 2007–2016. Our scenario analysis shows that subject to interactions between policy adjustments and market recalibrations,average annual completions for 2030–2034 could range from 15,400 to 19,900 units. Part II: Public Housing Supply 5.Public housing completions are entering a harvest phase. For the first time since the LTHS was promulgated in December 2014, traditional publichousing completions alone—forecasted at 32,100 units per annum in 2025/26–2029/30—are enough to meet the LTHS target of 30,800 units,exceeding it by 4%. Adding up the LPH, which implementation is on track, average annual public housing completions would reach 37,700 unitsin 2025/26–2029/30. 6.Given more upcoming completions, plus more recovered flats stemming from enhanced effectiveness in combating tenancy abuse and intakesof subsidised housing, we expect a downward trend in the Composite Waiting Time for Subsidised Rental Housing (CWT). Nevertheless,our analysis shows that the 30,000 LPH units are indispensable to plug the short-term supply gap of traditional public rental housing (PRH) unitsin meeting the key performance indicator (KPI) of shortening the CWT to 4.5 years by 2026/27. 7.Over the ten-year horizon, the problem of back-loaded supply is easi