2026年度经济报告

June 2026 © Bank for International Settlements 2026. All rights reserved.Limited extracts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. www.bis.orgemail@bis.org Follow us Annual EconomicAnnual EconomicReport June 2026 This publication is available on the BIS website (https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2026e.htm). ©Bank for International Settlements 2026. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may bereproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISBN 978-92-9259-961-4 (print)ISBN 978-92-9259-960-7 (online) Contents From resilience to robustness?............................................………………………………………...........1The year in review.............................................................................................................................................. 1Old and new fiscal-financial stability nexus ............................................................................................. 2Policy implications ............................................................................................................................................. 3Stablecoins and beyond .................................................................................................................................. 4 I. Progress and peril…………………………………………………………………………………………………...….7Resilience tested.................................................................................................................................................. 7A resilient start ......................................................................................................................................... 7Box A: Global supply chains: adaptability and vulnerability............................................................... 9The conflict and its peril ..................................................................................................................... 12Box B: The persistent economic effects of the Iran conflict ............................................................. 14Navigating progress and peril..................................................................................................................... 17An inflation comeback......................................................................................................................... 17AI progress and investment boom under pressure.................................................................. 19Box C: Transformative AI, long-term growth and r-star .................................................................... 20Financial vulnerabilities as amplifiers............................................................................................. 23Fiscal positions under increasing strain ........................................................................................ 27Policy implications ........................................................................................................................................... 28Endnotes ............................................................................................................................................................. 33Additional notes to graphs........................................................................................................................... 33References .......................................................................................................................................................... 37 II. High public debt and shifting financial markets:challenges for central banks………………………………………………………….…….…………....…41 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 41Near record-high public debt and evolving fiscal space................................................................... 42Box A: Insufficient debt consolidation in good times......................................................................... 44Box B: Why financial intermediation matters for fiscal space.......................................................... 48A new form of fiscal-financial stability nexus ........................................................................................ 49The increasing role of NBFIs in government bond markets.................................................. 50Market functioning and fiscal policy interactions ..................................................................... 53International spillovers and the FX-repo link.............................................................................. 54When fiscal and financial risks reach the central bank....................................................................... 56The effects of fiscal risk repricing and fiscal policy................................................................... 56Monetary policy transmission..........................................................