2026年年中展望：分化困局

GlobalMacro TrendsJune 202616.3Insights The DivergenceConundrum Mid-Year Outlook for 2026 Contents Henry H. McVeyHead of Global Macro& Asset Allocation,CIO of KKR Balance Sheethenry.mcvey@kkr.com 3Introduction 7Where Our Thinking HasEvolved15KKR GMAA vs. theConsensus17Key Asset Class Tilts19What Could Go Wrong?22Variant Perception David McNellisdavid.mcnellis@kkr.com Aidan Corcoranaidan.corcoran@kkr.com Changchun Huachangchun.hua@kkr.com 23Section I: Key Themes / Asset Allocation Kristopher Novellkristopher.novell@kkr.com 23The Security of Everything24Power/Energy Infrastructure24Collateral-Based Cash Flows26Consumption Upgrades inEmerging Markets27Intra-Asia Trade27Productivity/WorkerRetraining29Transitioning Companiesfrom Capital-Heavy toCapital-Light30Picks and Pans Lauren Goodwinlauren.goodwin@kkr.com Brian Leungbrian.leung@kkr.comRebecca Ramseyrebecca.ramsey@kkr.com Tony Buckleytony.buckley@kkr.com Richard Bullockrichard.bullock@kkr.com 36Section II: Most Frequently Asked Questions Christian Olingerchristian.olinger@kkr.com 36What Are the Global Bond Markets Telling Us?40Have Expected Returns Changed Enough to Alter Asset Allocation?46Where Is Relative Value Most Attractive Today in Credit? Bola Okunadebola.okunade@kkr.com Rachel Lirachel.li@kkr.comThibaud Monmirelthibaud.monmirel@kkr.com 49Section III: Regional Economic Forecasts Yifan Zhaoyifan.zhao@kkr.com 49U.S.57Euro Area62China66Japan Asim Aliasim.ali@kkr.comPatrycja Koszykowskapatrycja.koszykowska@kkr.com 71Section IV: Capital Markets Koontze Jangkoontze.jang@kkr.com 71Interest Rates75The S&P 50081Oil84U.S. Dollar Coco Qucoco.qu@kkr.comMiguel Montoyamiguel.montoya@kkr.com 86Section V: Conclusion Allen Liuallen.liu@kkr.com Alexandre Caducalexandre.caduc@kkr.com Wayne Shenwayne.shen@kkr.com Amy Daiamy.dai@kkr.com Lucy Siegellucy.siegel@kkr.com The DivergenceConundrum Mid-Year Outlook for 2026 Joseph Chamberlain’s warning in 1902 regarding Britain’s position amidstintensifying nationalistic competition feels especially relevant today, as theblurring of geopolitics and economics intensifies and the global economyis moving from a low-cost, efficiency-first model towards one whereredundancy, reliability, and resilience matter more. Two new realities, morestrategic geopolitical chokepoints and greater demand for critical AI inputs,are likely to contribute to increased volatility. Against this complex backdrop,however, our base case remains that the cycle continues because thecurrent global productivity boom persists for longer than expected. Theoffset is that intensifying strategic competition will likely make economicgrowth more concentrated across fewer industries and, at times, moreextreme than anything we have seen since the start of the second industrialrevolution in the 1870s. We are calling this environment the ‘DivergenceConundrum,’ an investing landscape where certain segments of theeconomy and markets are starved for capital, while others are flush withattractive financing options. This reality is contributing to further bifurcationacross sectors, societal cohorts, political and monetary views. For investors,the implication is to stay up in quality, adding more non-correlatedexposures, and diversifying into assets that are linked to nominal GDP. Thisapproach leads us towards more corporate carve-outs, more collateral-based cash flows, deeper penetration in power and energy markets, morelinkages to national security, and more exposure to Asia. The weary Titan staggers under thetoo vast orb of its fate. —Joseph Chamberlain, British statesman When we wrote our 2026 Outlook last December, wefocused on the notion of ‘high grading’ or upgradingone’s portfolio at a time when the cost to upgrade wasstill quite low, whether measured in basis points in Creditor multiples in Equities. The good news is that our ‘highgrading’ message still feels extremely relevant, as we headinto the second half of the year. One can see this inExhibits1and2, respectively. So, our message remains to stay upin quality, continue to diversify into more assets linked tonominal GDP, and own more operational improvementstories in private markets, especially Private Equity. Theother piece of good news in our outlook today is that ourglobal productivity boom thesis shows no signs of abating.In fact, we think aggregate productivity could now beaccelerating at a faster and more sustainable rate than themore than two percent the U.S. economy has enjoyed inrecent quarters(Exhibit 6). Exhibit 1:Quality Equities Have Rebounded Since theStart of the Year, But We Think That the Trend Is StillTheir Friend… On the other side of the ledger, we must also acknowledgethat the continued blurring of geopolitics and economicshas accelerated even more abruptly than it did post-COVID and Russia’s attack on Ukraine. While it may feel‘unprecedented’ to some, history actually suggests thatthis type of transition towards more geopolitical barriershas precedent.