驾驭分化时代：2026–2028年全球经济展望：2026年上半年

Global Economic Outlook 2026–2028: 1H 2026 Kearney Foresight The short-term economic outlookcontinues to reflect mountingcomplexities, fueled by heightenedgeopolitical risk, persistent Policy choices are playing a central role in shapingthese outcomes. Governments are intervening moredirectly in markets under the banner of economicsecurity, accelerating the use of industrial policy,tariffs, subsidy supports, and investment controls.While these measures have delivered pockets of Foreword This 1H 2026 Global Economic Outlook explores aworld defined by a series of compounding challengesplacing the economic system under ever greaterstrain. Heightened geopolitical risk, persistent policyuncertainty, rapid technological change, andmounting fiscal constraints continue to generate an For business leaders, there is no longer a single“average” economic trajectory against which to plan.Success in this environment will favor organizationsthat can both demonstrate agility and navigatedivergence. This will require everything fromredesigning supply chains to building constantlyshifting geopolitical and policy risk into strategies. Against this backdrop, the global growth outlookwill remain below pre-pandemic levels. Global outputwill average 2.9 percent through 2028, comparedwith 3.2 percent growth in the decade prior to thepandemic. This growth is being supported by The assessment that follows examines how anenvironment defined by elevated geopolitical riskand wide-ranging uncertainty is translating into This growth masks widening divergences. The globaleconomy is increasingly K-shaped, with growth,inflation, and consumption outcomes varying sharplyacross regions, sectors, and income groups. Asiaand Australasia will continue to be the fastest-growing region through the forecast period, led bythe strong performance of India, the world’s fastest-growing large economy. By contrast, Europe and As always, we welcome your views on our analysis. Erik R. Peterson Partner and managing directorGlobal Business Policy Council What does the baselineoutlook for the global Amid this volatility, growth is projected to averagearound 2.9 percent through 2028. While this suggestsslower growth than the 10-year pre-pandemicaverage of 3.2 percent, it is not as low as previousforecasts may have suggested. Offsetting tailwindssuch as thesurge in AI investmentas well as broadly supportive fiscal policy in key global economies arepropping up growth in the short term. For example,Germanyplansto expand its budget deficit to 4.75percent of GDP in 2026, the largest since 1975.1And Canada’s 2025 Federal BudgetproposesC$280billion of increased spending over five yearswith a focus on infrastructure, housing, and themilitary. Further, baseline projections suggest that theUnited States and China, the world’s two largesteconomies, will experience steady, albeit modest, The global growth outlook is being shaped by theconvergence of increased geopolitical risk, greaterpolicy uncertainty, higher levels of technologicaldisruption, and sharply rising debt, resulting inelevated volatility and headwinds to growth.Economic policy uncertainty spiked in April 2025following the US tariff announcements, causinggrowth projections to decline. Economic policyuncertainty rose sharply again in March 2026 toroughly the same level as during the COVID-19 Business and consumer adaptation may also reducesome of the headwinds to growth. Companies fromUnilever to Amazon are optimizing their supply chainsto reduce the impact of external volatility indisrupting their bottom lines.Unilever, for example, has developed a digital replica of its entire supplychain that allows it to connect customer point-of-saledata and stock information to the company’s supplysystem, using AI to assess and update plans in real Figure1Heightenedeconomicandtrade policyuncertaintyisfueling Geopolitical uncertainty is shifting from a cyclicalconstraint to more of a structural feature defining theeconomic outlook. The United States–Israel militaryoffensive against Iran and its regional fallout, theUnited States’ military operation in Venezuela, theongoing war in Ukraine, and the unpredictability offoreign policy decision-making more broadly are allcontributing to a persistently elevated risk environmentthat is reshaping trade, investment, and strategic The forces shaping the growth outlook differmarkedly in duration and intensity. Some constraintsare cyclical and may ease over time; others are Beyond inflation (see next section), wage growth isa cyclical constraint anticipated to impact the globaleconomic outlook, especially in key advancedeconomies. For example, the Bank of England maynot be able to drop interest rates this year as muchas initially anticipated due tostrong wage growth,up an estimated 3.5 percent in 2026, according toemployer surveys. And in Germany, shortages ofqualified labor in the near term could push wage Climate change, long-term changes in the labormarket, and