2025年全球新兴市场股票展望：驾驭时代浪潮

Riding the megatrendsOutlook 2025 We believe three megatrends – digitisation,climate change, and demographics – willdrive change in the global economy andbusiness landscape for years to come. In thisreport we outline how we have invested incompanies that we expect to benefit fromthis transformation AThe application of climate science to investment strategieshas not yet become mainstream. However, the scientificevidence is increasingly hard to ignore. Insurers enduredthe third most expensive year for natural catastrophe lossesin 2024 (US$140bn) because of climate change. We believethat climate change is an essential consideration to bear inmind when assessing the trajectory of the world, as it willsignificantly impact individuals, communities, and businesses. AThe share of the population aged 60 years and over willincrease to 1.4 billion in 2030, according to the WHO. Thisfigure is forecast to reach 2.1 billion by 2050. The ageingglobal population throws up a number of social, economicand healthcare implications. However, another cohort isemerging into a dominant economic force: Gen-Z makesup 30% of the world’s population and is expected toaccount for 27% of the workforce by 2025. AThe last few years have seen advancements in microchiptechnology, a rollout of cloud computing capabilities, andan increased awareness about the importance of data.We now stand on the cusp of a potential revolution inGenerative AI. These developments in digitisation havethe potential to greatly increase productivity – as long asenterprises adapt and embrace this change. Introduction 2024 recap and thoughts for 2025 Emerging Market (EM) equities posted positive gains in 2024,returning 7.5% over the year, narrowing from 9.8% in 2023,helped by a late rally in Chinese equities, coupled with strongresults from Taiwan and India1. EM significantly underperformed developed markets (DM),which returned 18.7% for the year, while US exceptionalismwas sustained for another year. As a result, EM’s discount toDM has widened2. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of futureperformance. While EM equities had a positive year overall, returns froma number of leading EM countries diverged over the courseof 2024 as a result of country-specific situations: AThe rebound of Chinese equities vs. EM ex-ChinaAContrasting returns of Taiwan, Malaysia, and the UAEvs. Brazil, Mexico, and South Korea China vs. EM ex-China For the first time in more than three years, Chinese equities(+19.67%)3outperformed EM ex-China (+3.56%) despite theall-important tech sector making up about 30% of the EM ex-China index4. The returns of EM ex-China have suffered primarily becauseof country-specific issues in South Korea, Brazil, and Mexico. Chinese equities initially rallied in September after Beijingannounced sweeping stimulus measures to tackle theunderlying weakness in the Chinese economy; including itsmisfiring property sector, debt-laden local governments andpoor consumer confidence. However, the re-election of US President Donald Trump inNovember, dampened market sentiment towards China andled investors to opt for high-yielding state-owned enterprises(SOEs), such as Chinese banks. Financials in China ralliedalmost 40% last year5, driving the majority of returns for Chinain 2024, alongside the Communication Services sector. Conversely, discretionary sectors have lagged the returns ofthe broader Chinese market. Even so, they still outperformedEM ex-China as they benefited from strong electric vehicle(EV) sales, a rebound in key e-commerce companies,smartphone subsidies, and a buoyant tourism industry. EM ex-China: leaders vs. laggardsAs noted earlier, the technology sector accounts for approx. 30% of the EM ex-China index. Taiwan has benefited fromthe global boom in artificial intelligence (AI), with TaiwanSemiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) delivering animpressive 71%6return in 2024; as well as helping to support awider ecosystem – of microchip packagers, server assemblers,and liquid-cooling technology providers – in Taiwan. We remain confident that Chinese policymakers haveenough tools at their disposal to address the structuralissues in the economy. The main challenge remains stabilising the country’s ailingproperty sector and officials have indicated that they arewilling to do ‘whatever it takes’ to achieve this. Few markets in EM ex-China can match Taiwan’sperformance; Malaysia, the UAE, and Turkey all performedwell (with approx.18-20% returns each). The surge in demandfor data centres – on the back of the AI boom – was a factorbehind Malaysia’s performance, and a buoyant propertymarket helped the UAE. Setting aside the threat of US tariffs, the key factor that willdetermine the prospects for China’s economy in 2025 andbeyond is domestic policy. We are optimistic that Beijing will seek to use the currentgeopolitical uncertainty – following Trump’s return to theWhite House – to re-orient China’s economy towardsdomestic consumption