2025年展望：驾驭全球能源格局

Table of ContentNextcontinentnextcontinent.net The energy transition is shifting globalgeopolitical risks Oil majors reshape strategies amid fallingprofits and market pressure Energy mix transition Surge in clean energy investments amidregional disparities Digitalization and technological innovation are reshapingthe energy sector Surging electricity demand from data centers The energy sector is working to bridge the skills gapand integrate new technologies Introduction Since the beginning of 2025, the oil market has experienced significant volatility. Following a sharp rise in January drivenby escalating geopolitical tensions, prices have now entered a downward trajectory. Benchmark indices such as Brent andWTI have recorded notable declines as of early May, pressured by increased OPEC+ output and growing concerns over globaldemand. This bearish trend is reshaping short-term forecasts for the energy sector, amid persistent trade tensions betweenthe United States and China and ongoing sanctions that weigh on several key producers. These dynamics exacerbate the risksof supply disruptions and underscore how dependencies and vulnerabilities can mutually reinforce one another. Mirroring thesurge in protectionist measures targeting clean technologies since 2020, the persistence of high import duties undermines thecompetitiveness of renewable sectors and clouds the trajectories of the energy transition. This report explores the major forces shaping the global energy landscape in 2025. It highlights key structural changes, policyshifts, and technological triggers that are reshaping energy systems and business models across the globe. The analysishighlights three main dynamics: the strategic turning points accelerating the energy transition, the impact of geopoliticaltensions and trade disruptions, and the emerging risks and opportunities linked to decarbonization, digitalization, andgrowing energy demand. In this context, we have identified seven megatrends that represent critical challenges for energy-sector stakeholders: 1.The energy transition and its impact on geopolitical power dynamics.2.Oil and gas majors are redefining their strategies under profit pressure and shifting markets.3.The global energy mix is transforming, with clean energy sources expanding and fossil fuel growth slowing.4.Clean energy investments are rising sharply, though regional disparities persist.5.Digitalization and technological innovation are reshaping the energy sector.6.Electricity demand is surging, driven by the rapid growth of data centers.7.The sector faces a growing skills gap as it adapts to emerging technologies. Together, these insights aim to help industry stakeholders navigate complexity, anticipate change, and build more resilient,adaptive business models for the years ahead. Executive SummaryNextcontinentnextcontinent.net The global energy landscape is undergoing a profound transformation. Amidongoing geopolitical tensions, economic volatility, and climate imperatives, thesector is navigating a path toward greater resilience and sustainability. Currentprojections point to a cautiously optimistic trajectory, driven by recovery,innovation, and a strengthening commitment to clean energy transitions. In 2024, global energy demand increased by 2.2%, surpassing the averageof the past decade. Electricity demand rose by 4.3%, significantly outpacingglobal GDP growth of 3.2%, driven by record temperatures, electrification, anddigitalization. While fossil fuels still represent the backbone of energy supply, their dominanceis being increasingly challenged by rapid investments in renewables. In 2024,renewables accounted for 38% of the growth in global energy supply, followedby natural gas (28%), coal (15%), oil (11%), and nuclear (8%). Solar PV was the largest contributor to this expansion, adding about 480 TWh in2024, and has been doubling approximately every three years since 2016. Windpower also grew but at a slower rate of 8% in 2024, its lowest annual growth intwo decades, due to permitting issues in several regions. Meanwhile, energy-related CO2emissions continued to rise, but at a slower rateof 0.8% in 2024, compared to previous years. Clean energy technologies helpedavoid an estimated 2.6 billion tonnes of additional CO2emissions annually.This report outlines seven key trends that are shaping the energy sector in 2025.These insights help stakeholders — from energy companies and policymakersto investors and consumers — anticipate change and adjust their strategies in arapidly evolving environment. Ultimately, the transition toward a more diversified, decentralized, anddecarbonized energy system is underway. However, its pace and form willdepend on coordinated global action, sustained investment, and a sharedstrategic vision. Steady growth ahead for global energyproductionOVERVIEW: The global energy production landscape is poised for steady growth, driven by rising electricity demand, governmentincentives,