2025年私人信贷年度调研报告

Contents Foreword 02Foreword02Methodology03Introduction04ViewpointSeeing beyond the squallCato HolmsenCEO Nordic Trustee & Global Head of Ocorian Capital Markets06Our respondents07Overview10Findings and key themes10Market growth, the year ahead We offer a wide range of services both for debt capital markets and for non-bank lending. In the burgeoning private credit market, we free lenders andborrowers from the operational burden of arranging and managing loandeals, irrespective of size and complexity, staying on top of cash flows andcommunications between lenders and borrowers, and serving private equity We conducted our survey between 28th March and 2nd April as speculationwas intensifying about the potential severity of US trade policy. We thenresurveyed our respondents at the end of April to see if their expectations for Methodology We surveyed 210 professionals from across Europe, with a particular focus onthe UK and Ireland, Germany, Switzerland, Benelux and the Nordic region. Theywork across the industry, including borrowers, advisers, primary and secondary Introduction Global capital markets reeled in April as the US government’s most punitivetariff regime seen since the 1930s threw the global economy into chaos. Thetrade intensity of the US economy is now almost three times larger than itwas back then, however, at 25% of GDP in 20231, while for the whole worldit has doubled to 30%2. This means the impact of the tariffs on the economyof the US and its main trading partners is likely to be much more significant.For example, in the US, the tariffs initially announced (then paused) wereequivalent to a tax rise of 2.3% of GDP compared to 0.5% in the 1930s, a sectors more directly affected by the trade war. We should neverthelessremember that for credit investors, a weakening economy presents It is important to keep a cool head in turbulent times and remember thateconomic downturns and economic growth take place at the margin. Growthdoes not require everyone to do a lot more – it just needs some to invest, hireor spend more. Similarly, downturns do not signify an economy collapsing but Private credit is no different. We surveyed market participants just before“Liberation Day” and then checked in with them again a few weeks after to seeif their opinions were changing. Our survey finds market participants optimistic For the credit markets, lower policy rates mean cheaper financing, all otherthings being equal, but the steepening yield curve is bad news for loan pricing.Moreover, an economic shock of this magnitude directly impacts credit qualityand is likely to lead to a tightening of credit conditions. We have already seen “It is important to keep a cool head in turbulenttimes and remember that economic downturns ViewpointSeeing beyond the squall Broadly speaking banks tend to be the first port of call for corporateborrowers. Finance can be structured according to the borrower’s needs, andthe cost of corporate debt is often lower than in the listed bond markets or by Cato Holmsen CEO Nordic Trustee & Global Headof Ocorian Capital Markets Listed bonds (secured and unsecured) are usually an efficient source ofadditional debt financing beyond the banks when capital market conditionsare stable. Over time the bond markets have become a substantial and Since we began work on the research for this publication at the end of March,the tariff wars have ratcheted up and de-escalated, stock and bond markets Private credit, by contrast, tend to see through short-term capital marketvolatility. This is because private credit lenders tend to conduct deeper duediligence compared to banks and bond investors to better understand andprice the specific borrowing company’s exposure to various risks. This makes Yet the private credit market has stoically looked beyond all this turmoil. Oursurvey shows that expectations for lending volume growth across private For those of us with daily insight to the corporate credit markets, this isexpected, but for corporate borrowers and outside observes it might not bequite so intuitive. In volatile times it might be useful to reflect on the different No wonder, therefore, that private credit has emerged as a significant andrapidly growing source of financing for European corporations, particularly formid-sized and smaller companies, and for leveraged buyouts. Private credit Of course, private credit is not entirely immune to economic recessions. Ifshort-term disruption in public markets turned into a protracted tailspin orthe real economy slid into a prolonged slump, private credit lenders will also But this is not where we are today. Certainly, the trade wars have not beensettled, though the signs are increasingly clear that the US administration does “Private credit funds have establishedthemselves as a permanent and increasinglyvital part of the European corporate financing Our respondents Overview Momentum in private credit is strong, and growth But uncerta