阿塞拜疆共和国：2026年第四条磋商工作人员报告

STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2026 ARTICLE IVCONSULTATION In the context of the 2026 Article IV Consultation, the following documents have beenreleased and are included in this package: •APress Release. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration on a lapse-of-time basis, following discussions that ended on February17, 2026, with the officials of the Republic of Azerbaijan on economic developmentsand policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staffreport was completed on March 26, 2026. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMF staff. TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public fromInternational Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with theRepublic of Azerbaijan FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Following strong performance in 2024, economic growth moderated to 1.4 percent in 2025, asoil-sector disruptions and slower non-hydrocarbon activity weighed on output. Elevated hydrocarbon prices from the war in the Middle East are expected to strengthenAzerbaijan’s fiscal and external positions in the near term, but inflationary pressures couldemerge. Sustained fiscal consolidation and private sector-led diversification away from hydrocarbonproduction remain the key policy priorities, given declining hydrocarbon reserves. Washington, DC – April 30, 2026:On April 27, 2026, the Executive Board of the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV consultation with the Republic of Azerbaijan andendorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse of time basis.1The authorities need moretime to consider the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.2 Following the strong performance in 2024, growth slowed in 2025.Oil production washampered by technical issues, causing hydrocarbon GDP to contract by 1.6 percent, compared toflat growth in 2024. In the nonhydrocarbon sector, growth moderated from 6.5 percent in 2024 to2.7 percent, reflecting the indirect effects of falling hydrocarbon prices, as well as lower investment,coming off elevated levels in the previous years. Overall, real GDP slowed to 1.4 percent in 2025,down from 4.2 percent in 2024. Headline inflation temporarily breached the upper bound of the CBAtarget range of 4±2 percent in April and May 2025 and it has been oscillating within a 4.9 to 6 percent range since. The increase was largely driven by rising food prices, with food price inflationclimbing to 8.2 percent yoy in October 2025, before moderating somewhat. Most recently, increasesin the regulated prices led to a pickup in headline inflation to 5.7 percent in January 2026. Hydrocarbon exports continued to sustain the external surplus in 2025, despite lower oil andgas prices.By 2025 Q3, the current account surplus narrowed to 5.4 percent of GDP from 6.3percent in 2024, driven by lower oil exports. The decline in oil exports was partially offset by slowerimports growth, which moderated to 2.7 percent yoy in the first three quarters of 2025 compared toearlier double-digit growth, reflecting lower investment spending. The combined CBA and SOFAZreserves rose to $85 billion by end-2025, and the liquid portion is estimated to cover over 38months of imports and exceed 970 percent of the IMF’s reserve adequacy metric. Nonetheless,considering the need to maintain intergenerational equity, the external position is assessed to besubstantially weaker than the level consistent with medium-term fundamentals and desirablepolicies. Growth is projected to pick up marginally and inflation to remain within the CBA target band.Staff expect GDP to pick up moderately to 2.1 percent in 2026, amid continued weakness in oil andgas production. Nonoil GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 3.7 percent, before stabilizing at3½ percent in the medium term. The rebound reflects a slower pace of fiscal tightening expected in2026 and positive indirect effects of higher oil and gas prices due to the war in the Middle East.These gains are partially offset by weaker business confidence and investment. The output gap inthe nonoil sector is expected to fall but remain positive in 2026, before gradually closing over themedium term. The outlook for oil GDP, which is driven by binding production constraints, isprojected to decline by 2.0 percent in 2026 before slowing at a moderate pace of 0.5 percent,pushing down overall GDP growth to about 2½ percent in the medium term. Inflation is projectedto pick up to 6.0 percent by end-2026, assuming higher imported food inflation amid the war in theMiddle East