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强劲的需求与定价环境推高目标价,重申买入评级

2026-05-19 - 美银证券 Daisy.Aldrich
报告封面

Sandisk Corp (SNDK.O) Strong Demand/Pricing Environment Bolsters Target Price Higher,Reiterate Buy CITI'S TAKE nBuy Weremain constructive on a highly favorable S/D environment with clearindications of persistence with customer demand conversations through CY30, supportive of pricing plus durable underlying data center demand. Following strongSNDKearnings reported on April 30th,we remain constructive on NANDfundamentals: For the industry to remain in tight production supply, with eSSDsbenefitingfromverystronghyperscalerdemandongenerative-AItraining/inferencing services, and with vendors working to improve profitability overcoming quarters through price increases (see recent Citi NAND ASP commentaryhere), while judiciously managing supply to expected demand. We adjust June Q ASP Continued inside/below… Asiya Merchant, CFAAC+1-415-951-1752asiya.merchant@citi.com Michael Cadiz+1-415-951-1671michael.cadiz@citi.com Kioxia(covered by Takero Fujiwara)reportedMarch qtr results citing continuedNAND demand on intensifying AI interest. Mar Q revenue of ¥1.003T vs guidance¥845-935B and FactSet ¥923.66B. Non-GAAP operating income ¥599.1B vsguidance ¥440-530B and FactSet ¥529.04B. Approx. 10%qq bit decline and ASPs(like-for-like and blended broadly aligned) more than doubled qq (USD basis). 1Qguidance of revenues ¥1.750T vs FactSet ¥1.385T and non-GAAP operating income¥1.300T vs FactSet ¥931.36B. Operating margin of nearly 60% in the reportedquarter with revenues up ~85%qq and +190%yy. Guidance is for revenues to be up75%qq and operating profit to more than double qq and margin of 74%, driven byASP increase across all applications. Management noted CY26 bit growth in the Kioxia NAND market outlookreflects: Intensifying interest in AI-inference serversdriving overall CY26 NAND demand growth while traditional servers are expectedto remain strong and expected CY26 moderation of nearline HDD replacement infavor of high-performance inference products, with TAM still expected to expand.CY26 flat yy smartphone NAND demand, with low-priced model unit shipments SNDK LTAs Structured to Reduce Volatility with Attractive Margin Structures–While LTAs offer customers downside protection should prices come down, thevariable component within the deals provide financials (incl. GMs) that remainattractive, in our view, even at the floor pricing, while the cap would be higher(though not publicly quantified). Furthermore, we understand the volumes are Share Repurchase Authorization– During last quarter, SNDK announced a $6blnshare repurchase authorization. This represents ~3% of current market cap and weexpect additional upside forthcoming given strong FCF generation expectationsahead. Our model does not currently imply any share count reduction yet relative to Favorable NAND Pricing Environment Persists– Citi Korea Memory Analyst PeterLee expects global memory pricing to see a sustained uptrend in 2H26E due toincreased AI traction on accelerated token growth driven token limit increases and Short-Term View on Sandisk Corp (SNDK.O) Direction: Upside Within 90 Days (expires 17 Jun 2026)19 Mar 2026 Duration:Date Added: We have an upside 90-Day ST View on SNDK shares on favorable industry results/commentary on top of strong Dec qtrexecution and solid near-term outlook as the company continues to benefit from strong demand reflecting hyperscalereSSD demand momentum driving better pricing, robust margins, and eSSD-mix opportunity, paired with already-favorable and yet still improving industry fundamentals well-supported by limited production. We remain constructive on Sandisk Corp Company description Sandisk is a global data storage supplier of NAND flash solutions, includingSSDs, memory cards, USB sticks, portable drives, and automotive. For Clientcustomers, the company offers SSDs for the PC, mobile, gaming, automotive,VR, at-home entertainment, and industrial spaces. The company is primarilyfocused on increasing its share in Enterprise, targeting the Cloud and DataCenter segment. The company also leverages its strong brand name to theConsumer end-market for retail and other end-user products, includingmemory cards, USB sticks, and portable drives. Sandisk was founded in 1988, Investment strategy We rate Sandisk shares Buy as the company focuses on gaining share in thegrowing Enterprise SSD segment amidst a highly favorable S/D environmentexpected to persist through CY27, with limited cleanroom capacity situationsupportive of pricing, plus durable underlying datacenter demand, coupledwith its Bics8 qualifications serving as a competitive moat, and with ongoingmix to datacenter further benefiting margins longer-term. However, we Valuation Sandisk’s peer set historically trades at (FactSet) median 3-4x EV/sales, and9-10x P/E. Our target price for SNDK is $2,025, where we value shares at 9-10x CY27E EPS, vs its closest competitor, Kioxia, at a median of 7x, as well asthe larger peer group at 6-7x P/E, as we believe Sandis