铠侠（285A）第四季度业绩：定价强于预期；上调目标价至61,000日元；重申买入评级

raise PO to ￥61,000; reiterate BuyReiterateRating:BUYIPO:61,000JPYIPrice:44,450JPY Lift our 3/27 EPS estimate by 54%; reiterate Buy expected ASP, driven by robust Al demand. We lift our price objective (PO) to ￥61,O00from￥50,000 and reiterate ourBuy rating.We base our POon8xP/EonourFY3/27EPS Key Changes estimate (previously 10x).8x is in line with the peer average for memory companies.Keydrivers are (1) NAND market growth, led by generative Al inference demand, and (2)sustained tight supply/demand given limited industry capacity adds. For the 2 JunInvestor Day,wefocus on (1)progress in securing long-term contracts that supportNAND price stabilization, (2) development status of XL-Flash/BiCS9/10, and (3) capitalallocation policy, including dividends and capital expenditures.1Q ASP assumption implies c.65% QoQ growth KIOXIA's 1Q sales guidance implies +75% QoQ, significantly above our/Visible Alpha (VA)by37-44%.Our prior ASP view was +30%QoQ; guidance suggests c.+65% QoQ,the main delta versus our revenue view. 4Q operating profit (non-GAAP) was ￥599.1bn(+117% QoQ),beat our/NA by 8-12%,broadly in line with elevated expectations post-SanDisk (30 Apr).The company expects demand to exceed supply in 2027 BofAS Japan+81 3 6225 7989mikio.hirakawa@bofa.comSimon Woo, CFA >>Research Analyst For 2026 NAND industry bit growth, the company guided high-teens % YoY, factoring insupply constraints. It expects demand to exceed supply again in 2027, led by Al, implying stable ASP through2027.Some long-term contracts that support ASP stability beyond2027 have already been secured, with further build-out planned.As management expectsnet cash position in 1Q FY3/27, the company suggests prioritizing dividends overbuybacks under the current share-price trajectory.Estimates (¥)3/25A3/26A3/27E3/28E3/29E Merrill Lynch (Seoul)simon.woo@bofa.comMayako Ouchi >>Research Analyst BofAS Japanmayako.ouchi@bofa.com Price iQprofile "KI0XIA (285A)Key Income Statement Data3/25A Semiconductors Kioxia specializes in NAND flash memory business that was originally part of Toshiba. In June 2018, Toshiba spun offitsmemory business to a consortium led by Bain Capital, and itbecame a non-consolidated subsidiary. Toshibamanagement decided that deconsolidating the businesswould do more to enable the agile management required inthe memory industry. In Oct 2019,the company namechanged from Toshiba Memory to Kioxia. In Dec 2024,Kioxia was listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange PrimeMarket. The Buy thesis is 1) expansion of the NAND market driven by demand for generative Al inference, and 2) continuedsupply-demand tightness due to limited productioncapacity additions across NAND makers Key Metrics Exhibit3:RaiseFY3/27OP/EPS estimates by52%/54%on1QguidanceKIOxIA (285A): revision to consolidated estimates (￥bn) KIOXIA(285A/XIYUF) Our ￥61,000 price objective is based on a P/E of 8x on our FY3/27 EPS estimate, in line with the memory-sector average.Upside risks are: (1) market share gains in enterprise SSDs through successful expansion of high-capacity SSDs adopting BiCS8 QLC, (2) expansion of the SSD market, and (3)Downside risks are: (1) a sharp pullback in data center investment owing to power supply constraints and other factors, (2) deterioration of NAND supply-demand dynamicsbecause of capex competition, and (3) profit pressure from higher component costs,such as DRAM. Analyst CertificationWe, Mikio Hirakawa and Simon Woo, CFA, hereby certify that the views each of us has about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our respectivecompensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specificrecommendations or view expressed in this research report. iQmethod Measures Definitions Total Assets - Current Liabilities + ST Debt + Accumulated GoodwillAmortizationShareholders' EquitySalesN/AN/A Net IncomeOperating ProfitExpected 5 Year CAGR From Latest ActualCash Flow From Operations - Total Capex DenominatorNet Income Quality of EarningsCash Realization Ratio NumeratorCash Flow From Operations CapexTax ChargeNet Debt = Total Debt - Cash & EquivalentsEBIT Asset Replacement RatioTax RateNet Debt-To-Equity RatioInterest Cover DepreciationPre-Tax IncomeTotal EquityInterest Expense Valuation ToolkitPrice / Earnings Ratio DenominatorDiluted Earnings Per Share (Basis As Specified) NumeratorCurrent Share Price Shareholders' Equity / Current Basic SharesCurrent Share PriceMarket Cap = Current Share Price × Current Basic SharesSales Price / Book ValueDividend YieldFree Cash Flow YieldEnterprise Value / Sales Current Share PriceAnnualised Declared Cash DividendCash Flow From Operations -Total CapexEV= Current Share Price × Current Shares + Minority Equity + Net Debt+Other LT LiabilitiesEnterprise ValueiQmethodsis the set of BofA Global Research standard measures that serve to maintain global consistency under three broad headings: Business Performance, Quality of Earnings, and validations. T