卡普空公司（9697）：上调预期和目标价至5100日元。因《怪物猎人：荒野》的收益顺风维持买入评级

Japan | Interactive EntertainmentCapcom Co. Ltd. Raise est. and PT to ¥5,100. Maintain BUY forMH Wilds earnings tailwind. We believe thatMH Wildstailwinds will start from FY3/26 and continue for2+ years. We see further upside potential from: 1) high-margin catalog salesfrom MH Wilds (10m units sold); 2) any update on theResident Evil 9launchdate; and 3) Switch 2 ports/ new titles. We raise our PT to ¥5,100 (30xFY3/27e EPS of ¥170), and reiterate BUY with multi-year earnings driversand forecast margin leadership among peers. MH Wilds positives - we think there is more to come:We upgraded CAPCOM to BUY on Oct12, 2023 (We're Buyers of This Pullback; Next Big Driver: Likely Launch of MHW2 in 1QCY25).We expected the MHW2 (=MH WIlds) launch in FY3/25 Q4 when the share price was c. ¥2,725.A year later on Sep 25, Capcom confirmed the release date forMH Wilds2024 when the shareprice was ¥3,350. One might have thought the MH Wilds contribution was priced in whenthe "launch catalyst" was over, but that only appeared to reduce the interest of very short-term investors, while we believe those with a med-long term investment horizon are likely tocontinue to benefit from upside potential. We think the actual earnings contribution will beginfrom FY3/26 Q1 with catalog sales (see below). We see scope for the multiple to expand fromhere with the earnings upside potential catalysts below. Upcoming earnings catalysts: 1)High margin catalog sales of MH Wilds in FY3/26-3/27.Following the successful launch of MH Wilds (10m units sold) in FY3/25 Q4, we expect thecontinued sales to drive up earnings as the development cost was already amortized duringthe release Q (see our 2025 Gaming Trifecta).2) Any update on the Resident Evil 9 (RE9)launch date. The last numbered title, RE Village, was released in 2021, which came four yearsafter the release of RE7 in 2017. No timeline has been officially confirmed yet, but past cadencesuggests it is not unreasonable to expect an update soon. We note Summer Game Fest startsin two days' time on June 6, 2025.3) Port titles on Switch 2.Street Fighter 6(SF6) andKunitsu-Gami: Path of the Goddessare slated for a Switch 2 launch on June 5. More games willlikely follow to the Switch platform with unprecedented 3P titles support. We also highlightedMonster Hunter IP development potential through port titles on Switch 2 in our sector note(here). .Source: Company data, Jefferies estimates Our Est. and Rating (Buy): We believe CAPCOM has potential for large earnings and stockprice upside from the aforementioned three factors. MHW2 is likely to drive growth for thenext 8-10 quarters, and the multiple should expand on expectations for the RE9 release andCapcom's s/w expansion on the Switch 2 platform. We raise our estimates given the better-than-expected initial sales of MH Wilds. Our new PT is ¥5,100 (from ¥4,230)/$17.59 on 30xFY3/27e EPS of ¥170. Reiterate BUY. Source: Company data, Jefferies Atul Goyal, CFA * | Equity Analyst65 6551 3965 | agoyal@jefferies.com Shunki Nakamura, CFA ^ | Equity Analyst+81(0)80 8120 7130 | snakamura@jefferies.com The Long View: Capcom Co. Ltd. Investment Thesis / Where We Differ •For the past several quarters/years, Capcom's Game segment hasdelivered an industry-high OPM of 50%+ with the help of a strategic pushtoward higher digital sales and catalog games.•MHW has been the single highest-selling game in Capcom's history andcontributed to the hardware traction. MHW2 is due to be released inFY3/25 4Q (c.4 years after PS5 debut), just as MHW's release came 4years after PS4's launch. We expect the title to feed into high-margincatalog sales in FY3/26, too.•Factoring in MH Wilds' contribution, we project FY3/26-27e OP growth at32%/13% with top-line growth at 18%/10% YoY.•Our PT is ¥5,100 / US$17.59 (PER 30x and FY3/27e EPS of ¥170). Downside Scenario,¥3820, -12% Upside Scenario,¥7140, +64% Base Case,¥5100, +17% •Currently, we factor in 0-25% higher volumesandmoderate ASP change over the next2 years. However, if MH Now successfullyscalesup its monetization and/or newergames on a next-gen console to allow forhigher prices, this could result in higher revsand margins than our estimates.•In such a scenario,3/27e EPS would bereferenced at 35x PER. It could warrant a PTof ¥7,140 / US$23.5. •Capcom has delivered an industry-high gameOPM of 50%+ with the help of a strategic pushtoward higher digital sales of new and cataloggames.•It is essentially a console-game company withtwo main IPs being MH and RE.•Given the FY3/25 4Q release of MHW2(c.4years after PS5's debut),we expectthetitle to feed into high-margin catalogsalesin FY3/26e,too.Factoring in MHWilds' contribution, we project FY3/26-27e OPgrowth at 32%/13% with top-line growth at18%/10% YoY.•Our PT is ¥5,100 / US$17.59 (PER 30x andFY3/27e EPS of ¥170). •If negatively received, mobile games such asMH Now and new IP such as Pragmata couldlead to some reversal and headwinds.•Aggressive ASP change could risk thecompanyl