早晨洞察：2026年5月25日

Morning Insight:May 25, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Thermal Coal:Safety-related regulatory risk premiums have risen acrossthe coal sector following the mining accident, with the market now facing The gas explosion accident at the Liushenyu Coal Mine under TongzhouGroup in Qinyuan County, Shanxi, is the most severe coal mining accidentsince 2009, and the State Council has already organized an investigation From a fundamentals perspective, domestic coal mine capacity utilizationis expected to remain constrained as month-end approaches, while stricter demand ahead of the summer peak consumption season providing clearsupport. Inventory accumulation at northern ports has also slowed. In the near term, market sentiment remains heavily influenced by theaccident itself. Over the medium term, the key issue will be whether Equity Index Futures:Short-term sentiment remains constructive, thoughthe broader market is still expected to trade in a range-bound pattern.Last week’s market correction was mainly driven by multiple fundamental Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain range-bound, with furtherupside breakouts likely to face resistance, while downside support should requires further normalization, while investors should continuemonitoring the potential room for US Treasury yields to decline further.On the downside, however, support remains intact as long as the broader Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China will release data on foreign trade in goods for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as a whole, as part of broader The move is included in a package of 20 measures recently unveiled by theGeneral Administration of Customs to support the development of the GBA, Currently, trade data for the region's mainland cities, Hong Kong andMacao, are compiled separately under different statistical systems, Chinese mainland customs authorities will work with counterparts in HongKong and Macao to study and compile aggregate data on trade in goods for The data will support more accurate analysis of trade trends andstructure in the region, while giving the public a more complete picture The GBA, one of China's most open and vibrant economic hubs, has shown strong resilience and vitality in foreign trade. In the first four monthsof this year, the imports and exports of the nine mainland cities in the 2. The number of overseas-invested enterprises in China has risen forthree consecutive years to surpass 530,000, with total accumulated The data underscores sustained confidence among overseas investors in theChinese market. In 2025, more than 8,000 overseas enterprises increased During the January-April period, 20,113 new overseas-invested firms wereestablished across the country, up6.8 percent year on year. The actual High-tech industries bucked the overall trend, attracting 116.33 billionyuan in foreign investment, a surge of 20.3 percent year on year, and Investment from Luxembourg, Switzerland, France and the United Statesinto the Chinese mainland increased by 110.3 percent, 60.8 percent, 58.3 The ministry said it has held five roundtable meetings with foreignenterprises this year, helping resolve more than 180 complaints and 3. The People's Bank of China on Friday announced that it will carry out lending facility (MLF) operation on May 25, aiming to maintain adequate The central bank said this MLF operation will be conducted through With a 500-billion-yuan MLF maturing this month, the move will result in Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating, noted that the institutions' demand for longer-term funds, supporting bank credit supply The MLF was introduced in 2014 to help commercial and policy banksmaintain liquidity by allowing them to borrow from the central bank by Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. Th