早晨洞察：2026年5月20日

Morning Insight:May 20, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Soybean Meal:Price center shifting higher, with attention needed onmarket timing. Over the past two months, the key driver for both USsoybean and soybean meal markets has been developments surrounding the In the short term, soybean prices are likely to remain in a relativelystrong and volatile range as the market digests and awaits implementationdetails from the summit, including tariff arrangements and other policyoutcomes. However, once specific policies begin to materialize, the frictions, US soybean planting area exceeded 90 million acres, whereas Therefore, the soybean procurement framework discussed during the October 2025 Busan talks is more aligned with present market realities. If implemented successfully, it would already constitute a bullish development for US soybeans without requiring additional large-scale purchase commitments. In this context, stable China-US relations carry far greater significance than sporadic or incremental soybean purchases themselves. Looking ahead, once the market fully digests the impact of the summit,soybean price movements are expected to return to being driven primarily Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's electricity consumption, a key barometer of economic activity,rose 6 percent year on year in April, official data showed Tuesday. A breakdown of the data showed that power consumed by the primaryindustry rose 2 percent year on year to 11.2 billion kilowatt-hours, 558.4 billion kilowatt-hours. Within the secondary industry, industrial power use rose 5.5 percent yearon year to 553.8 billion kilowatt-hours, while electricity consumption by Power use by the tertiary industry reached 151.7 billion kilowatt-hoursin April, up 8.9 percent year on year. The charging and battery swapping Electricity consumption by residents rose 6 percent from a year earlier In the first four months of the year, China's total power use exceeded3.33 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 5.4 percent year on year, the data 2. China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) hasintroduced measures under a newly revised hog production capacity An official of the ministry said that strengthening comprehensive hogcapacity controls directly affects stable pork supplies, farmers' income Local authorities must strictly enforce capacity-reduction measures, facilitate a reasonable rebound in hog prices, and foster the stable and healthy development of the hog sector, the official said. On the specifics, efforts will be made to consolidate the upward momentumin hog prices and stimulate pork consumption, while guiding producers to The official also emphasized the need for a multi-pronged approach to pursue capacity reduction, calling for strengthened market monitoring and The revised plan, released by MARA on May 14, sets the national targetfor breeding sow inventory at approximately 37.5 million head, markingthe second downward revision to the benchmark since February 2024. On April 28, a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party ofChina Central Committee explicitly called for stabilizing prices of 3. China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) hasintroduced measures under a newly revised hog production capacity An official of the ministry said that strengthening comprehensive hog capacity controls directly affects stable pork supplies, farmers' income Local authorities must strictly enforce capacity-reduction measures, facilitate a reasonable rebound in hog prices, and foster the stable and healthy development of the hog sector, the official said. On the specifics, efforts will be made to consolidate the upward momentum rationally assess market prospects and avoid speculative inventory The official also emphasized the need for a multi-pronged approach to The revised plan, released by MARA on May 14, sets the national targetfor breeding sow inventory at approximately 37.5 million head, markingthe second downward revision to the benchmark since February 2024. On April 28, a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party ofChina Central Committee explicitly called for stabilizing prices of Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futu