早晨洞察：2026年5月18日

Morning Insight:May 18, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Silver:Precious metals retreated again last week, with silver inparticular falling more than 10% on Friday and during Friday night At one point, the market traded on concerns that Peru’s energy issuescouldlead to potential supply disruptions in metals such as silver andcopper. If production cuts were to materialize, this would indeed providemeaningful support for silver prices, given Peru’s position as one of the We have consistently emphasized that, from a medium-term perspective,increasing attention should be paid to the negative economic impact “expectation-driven”in nature, while overall real demand has notmaterially weakened, particularly in AI-related industries that continue We maintain our view that precious metals remain trapped in a difficultenvironment: upside momentum lacks clear drivers, while downside riskscontinue to emerge intermittently. Trading strategies should therefore Equity Index Futures:Likely to weaken first before recovering, withdownside support remaining intact. Last week’s market correction wasprimarily driven by the earlier market pricing of easing US-Iran Looking ahead, as external uncertainties are still evolving, the marketmay continue to consolidate in the short term. However, with overseas Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. Home prices in China's first-tier cities, namely Beijing, Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen, increased last month compared with March, while 2. China's State Administration for Market Regulation has released a 2026work plan to support the development of the private economy, outlining 34 The plan calls for equal emphasis on standardized regulation anddevelopment promotion, pledging efforts to foster fair competition, To reinforce legal and policy safeguards, market regulators will improvethe legal framework for fair competition and the system for supervising The regulator also highlights measures to maintain fair market order,including removing barriers, advancing the building of a unified national In terms of regulatory enforcement, authorities will explore off-site,contactless and QR-code-based inspection models, improve the fairness of In addition, the regulator says it will strengthen services for privatebusinesses by providing more targeted support for individual businesses, This policy move came as China's private companies are spearheading breakthrough innovations across various key sectors, supported byfavorable government policies that encourage entrepreneurship and unleash 3. China's current account surplus was 184.1 billion U.S. dollars in the Of the total, the surplus under trade in goods came in at 247.4 billionU.S. dollars, and the deficit under trade in services stood at 59.6 In terms of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), China's current account SDRs are interest-bearing international reserve assets created by theInternational Monetary Fund to supplement other reserve assets of member Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote th