科技日报 -美股盘前-20260518

TMT BREAKOUTMAY 18, 2026∙PAID Taiwan TAIEX -0.68%, Korea KOSPI +0.31%.Kioxialimit up after reporting results lastweek.Samsung +3%after a judge limited scopy of this week’s potential strike.早上好。期货下跌8个基点。收益率/⽯油持平。亚洲市场涨跌互现：东证指数 数(HSCEI) -1.07%，上证综指(SHCOMP) -0.09%，深证成指+0.03%，台湾加权指数(TAIEX) -0.68%，韩国综合指数(KOSPI) +0.31%。铠侠(Kioxia)在上周公布业绩后触及涨停。三星上涨3%，此前⼀名法官限制了本周潜在罢⼯的范围。Lots happening in TMT land this week…本周TMT领域⼤事不断…… The JPM TMT Conference in Boston starts today.Main Keynotes are OpenAI CFO 摩根⼤通(JPM) TMT⼤会今⽇在波⼠顿开幕。主要主题演讲嘉宾包括OpenAI⾸席财务官Sarah Friar和INTC⾸席执⾏官Lip-Bu Tan（均在周⼆）。CSCO⾸席执⾏官将于今⽇发⾔。MU/SNDK将于周三发⾔。其余⽇程⻅下⽂。We get earnings fromNVDAon Wednesday, in addition toADI, WDAY, INTUthisweek.本周我们将迎来NVDA的财报（周三），此外还有ADI、WDAY和INTU。 GOOGLI/O starts on Tuesday with many leaks and rumors already out on new model launches. Expect a big focus on Agentic AI. SPOTinvestor day starts on Thursday. SPOT投资者⽇将于周四开始。 We’ll be here covering it all. Let’s get to it… 我们将全程关注并报道。让我们进⼊正题…… TSMC/Packaging/AMD: JPM Raises CoWoS Outlook; AMDand AVGO Estimates Moving Higher AVGO预期持续⾛⾼ JPM now expects CoWoS capacity to ramp to ~1.1M/1.9M/2.4M annual wafers in wafers/year driven by stronger MI450/Venice ramps and increasing CPU/GPUpackaging complexity. 摩根⼤通（JPM）⽬前预计CoWoS产能将在2026/27/28年分别增加⾄每年约110万/190万/240万⽚晶圆，且随着SoIC和先进后端采⽤率的增强，仍有上⾏空间。摩根⼤通⼤幅上调了AMD 2027年的CoWoS预估，⽬前模拟为每年约18万⽚晶圆，这主要受MI450/Venice强劲放量以及CPU/GPU封装复杂度提升的推动。On AVGO, JPM now expects total TPU shipments to reach ~4.5M/8M units in 2026/27. 关于AVGO，摩根⼤通⽬前预计TPU总出货量在2026/27年将达到约450 ARM：伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）给予“跑赢⼤盘”初始评 Bernstein initiates ARM with an Outperform rating and$300 PT, arguing Agentic AI isdriving a major structural increase in CPU demand as orchestration-heavy workloads push CPU-to-GPU ratios from ~1:8 toward ~1:1.伯恩斯坦给予ARM “跑赢⼤盘”初始评级，⽬标价300美元。其认为代理式⼈⼯智能正驱动CPU需求的重⼤结构性增⻓，因为重编排的⼯作负载正将CPU 与GPU的⽐例从约1:8推向约1:1。The firm believes ARM’s power efficiency and growing hyperscaler/server CPUpenetration position it as a primary beneficiary of this “CPU renaissance,” forecasting Arm CPU TAM expanding toward ~$137B by 2030. 该机构认为，ARM的能效优势以及在超⼤规模计算/服务器CPU领域不断提升的渗透率，使其成为这场“CPU复兴”的主要受益者，并预测到2030年，Arm CPU的可服务市场总量（TAM）将扩⼤⾄约1370亿美元。 Bernstein also sees ARM evolving from a pure IP licensor into a broader computeplatform company spanning Cloud AI, Edge AI, and Physical AI workloads.Bernstein还认为，ARM正在从⼀家纯粹的IP授权商演变为⼀家涵盖云端 AI、边缘AI和物理AI⼯作负载的更⼴泛的计算平台公司。 Bernstein also highlights SoftBank as a major beneficiary through its ownership stakes across the AI stack (OpenAI, ARM, Graphcore, SB Energy, robotics), arguing Agentic AI Graphcore、SB Energy、机器⼈）的多⽅持股者，将成为主要受益者。该机构认为，代理式AI（Agentic AI）的采⽤正在加速现实世界的投资回报（ROI）和企业级部署。 ARM：Arm Holdings因芯⽚技术⾯临美国反垄断调查 Bloomberg: of ongoing global scrutiny of the business, people familiar with the matter said.据知情⼈⼠透露，Arm Holdings Plc正⾯临美国联邦贸易委员会（FTC）针对该公司半导体技术授权业务开展的反垄断调查。这是全球范围内对该公司 业务持续监管审查的⼀部分。 The US competition and consumer protection regulator is probing whether Arm is 据因讨论机密调查⽽要求匿名的知情⼈⼠透露，美国竞争与消费者保护监管机构正在调查Arm是否试图⾮法垄断部分半导体市场。 blueprints to develop central processing units — the brain of a computer — whileramping up efforts to develop its own chips, said the people. 知情⼈⼠表示，FTC旨在确定Arm在加⼤⼒度研发⾃有芯⽚的同时，是否会拒绝提供或降低⽤于开发中央处理器（CPU，即计算机⼤脑）的蓝图授权质量。 AVGO: UBS Raises PT to$490 Despite MoreConservative Anthropic Ramp Assumptions AVGO：尽管对Anthropic的增⻓预期更为保守，瑞银（UBS）仍将⽬标价上调⾄490美元 UBS says Broadcom’s Anthropic revenue contribution is likely shifting from full-rack 瑞银（UBS）表示，博通（Broadcom）来⾃Anthropic的营收贡献可能正从整机架系统转向更标准的ASIC部署模式，这降低了短期营收预期，但保留了 更⼴泛的AI基础设施机遇。The note highlights growing TPU v8/v9 exposure at Google, expanding scale-upEthernet/networking demand, and a large multi-year META inference partnership askey long-term AI drivers. 报告强调，Google业务中TPU v8/v9的敞⼝不断增加、扩展型以太⽹/⽹络需 ⻓期增⻓的关键驱动⼒。While Anthropic estimates were revised lower near term, the firm still sees AVGO AIrevenues ramping meaningfully through FY27/FY28 and raises PT modestly to$490 from$475. 尽管短期内下调了对Anthropic的营收预测，但该机构仍看好AVGO的AI营收在2027/2028财年显著增⻓，并将⽬标价从475美元⼩幅上调⾄490美元。 JPM TMT Conference: Monday, May 18 JPM TMT⼤会：5⽉18⽇，星期⼀ META: Morgan Stanley Sees Headcount Cuts and“Neocloud” Optionality Supporting EPS Upside 每股收益（EPS）上⾏ Morgan Stanley says META’s expected workforce reductions, slower hiring, and PT. MS estimates a 10% workforce reduction could drive ~$3.5B of annualized savings(~$1.20 of EPS) in FY27.摩根⼠丹利表示，META预期的裁员、放缓招聘以及严谨的费⽤管理应有助于 抵消不断上升的AI资本⽀出。该⾏将2027财年EPS预期上调约3%⾄约34美元，同时维持“增持”评级和775美元的⽬标价。⼤摩估计，裁员10%可能会在2027财年带来约35亿美元的年化成本节约（约合1.20美元的EPS）。 Beyond the core AI advertising/product thesis, the firm also highlights a potential“Neocloud backup” option — arguing excess compute capacity could eventually bemonetized externally and add ~8% upside to 2028 EPS. 2028年EPS带来约8%的上⾏空间。 Semicap/WFE/AMAT/LAM/MKS: Morgan Stanley Raises Strength半导体设备/WFE/AMAT/LAM/MKS：基于存储和逻辑芯 Morgan Stanley (Shane Brett) raises WFE TAM forecasts again to +27% y/y/$149B in晶圆⼚设备（WFE）展望 摩根⼠丹利（Shane Brett）再次上调了晶圆⼚设备（WFE）的市场总