科技日报-美股盘前-20260522

TMT BREAKOUTMAY 22, 2026∙PAID Good morning.Futures +47bpsas not much on the macro front this morning.Crude+1%.Yieldsdownticking 1-3bpsacross the board. 早上好。由于今早宏观层⾯消息不多，期货上涨47个基点。原油上涨1%。各期限收益率全线下调1-3个基点。 Asiagenerally up: TPX +1%, NKY +2.68%, Hang Seng +0.86%, HSCEI +0.89%,SHCOMP +0.87%, Shenzhen +2.23%, Taiwan TAIEX +2.17%, Korea KOSPI +0.41%.Softbank +12%. 亚洲市场普遍上涨：东证指数(TPX) +1%，⽇经指数(NKY) +2.68%，恒⽣指数+0.86%，恒⽣中国企业指数(HSCEI) +0.89%，上证综指(SHCOMP)+0.87%，深证成指+2.23%，台湾加权指数(TAIEX) +2.17%，韩国综合指数(KOSPI) +0.41%。Softbank上涨12%。 Software and Semis both leading the way higher this morning. 软件和半导体板块今早均领涨。 Will send outTTWO/WDAY/ZMRecaps shortly — still finishing up there as there was alot to get to this morning. 稍后将发送TTWO/WDAY/ZM的回顾⸺由于今早需要处理的内容很多，⽬前仍在收尾阶段。 So let’s get to it… 那么，让我们进⼊正题…… SPOT Stock +13% after analyst day yesterday announcing the rumored productlaunches bulls wants and giving solid 2030 Guide: Mid-teens rev CAGR, 35-40%GMs, 20%+ op margins, ahead of street. 在昨天的分析师⽇宣布了多头期待已久的传闻产品发布，并给出了稳健的2030年指引后，股价上涨了13%：营收复合年增⻓率（CAGR）达到15%左右，⽑利率（GMs）为35-40%，营业利润率达到20%以上，均⾼于市场预期。 SPOT’s landmark licensing agreement with UMG recorded music & musicpublishing enables SPOT to launch a tool for users to create covers and remixes,which will launch as a paid add on for premium subs and be margin neutral toaccretive. Bulls coming out of this event very happy and saying this shifts SPOTinto “AI winner bucket”. SPOT与UMG（环球⾳乐集团）录制⾳乐及⾳乐出版达成的⾥程碑式授权协议，使SPOT能够推出⼀款供⽤户创建翻唱和混⾳的⼯具。该⼯具将作为Premium订阅⽤户的付费增值组件推出，且对利润率的影响为中性⾄正向。多头对此次活动感到⾮常满意，并表示这使SPOT转型进⼊了“AI赢家⾏列”。 Bulls sitting at ~$35 for 2030. 多头对2030年的每股收益（EPS）预期维持在35美元左右。 Here’s their framing on valuation: 以下是他们对估值的设定： TMTB Slack Street generally positive. Here’s a few takeaways: 华尔街普遍持乐观态度。以下是⼏个核⼼观点： SPOT: Raymond James Says Investor Day Product SlateHelped Counter AI Concerns, Raises PT to$615 SPOT：Raymond James表示投资者⽇展示的产品系列有助于缓解对AI的担忧，将⽬标价上调⾄615美元 Raymond James came away incrementally more positive following Spotify’s investorday, arguing the company’s expanding product roadmap and AI strategy helpedcounter fears around AI disruption. Raymond James在参加完Spotify的投资者⽇后，态度变得更加积极，认为公司不断扩展的产品路线图和AI战略有助于抵消市场对AI颠覆⻛险的担忧。 The firm highlighted Spotify’s deep proprietary data advantage, the new UMGpartnership around AI-generated remixes/covers, and the gradual rollout of “SuperPremium” functionality through add-on monetization features across music, podcasts,and audiobooks. 该机构强调了Spotify深厚的专有数据优势、围绕AI⽣成混⾳/翻唱的新UMG合作伙伴关系，以及通过涵盖⾳乐、播客和有声读物的附加货币化功能逐步推出的“Super Premium”功能。 Raymond James also said Spotify’s LT targets appear achievable given improvingengagement, marketplace scaling, pricing leverage, and broader TAM expansion,raising PT to$615 from$555 and reiterating Outperform. Raymond James还表示，鉴于⽤户参与度的提⾼、市场规模的扩⼤、定价杠杆以及更⼴泛的可寻址市场（TAM）扩张，Spotify的⻓期⽬标似乎是可以实现的，因此将其⽬标价从555美元上调⾄615美元，并重申“跑赢⼤盘”评级。 SPOT: TD Cowen Says Investor Day Reinforced LTGrowth/FCF Outlook but Margin Debate Remains SPOT：TD Cowen表示投资者⽇强化了⻓期增⻓/⾃由现⾦流（FCF）前景，但利润率争论依然存在 TD Cowen says Spotify’s investor day delivered an upbeat LT framework, guiding tomid-teens revenue CAGR through 2030 with operating margins reaching at least 20%.The firm highlighted accelerating FCF/share focus, expanding add-on monetizationopportunities, the UMG partnership around AI-generated remixes/covers, andincreasing AI leverage internally across product development and personalization. TD Cowen表示，Spotify的投资者⽇提供了⼀个乐观的⻓期框架，指引到2030年营收复合年增⻓率（CAGR）将达到15%左右，营业利润率⾄少达到20%。该机构强调了公司对加速每股⾃由现⾦流（FCF/share）的关注、不断扩⼤的附加货币化机会、围绕AI⽣成混⾳/翻唱的UMG合作伙伴关系，以及在内部产品开发和个性化⽅⾯不断提⾼的AI利⽤率。 TD Cowen also noted the introduction of “Reserved” fan experiences and SpotifyStudio as additional engagement drivers, though it continues to question how muchincremental value labels may capture over time within the music ecosystem. SPOT: Barclays Says Investor Day Improved Visibility onMonetization Levers and AI Product Strategy Barclays says Spotify’s investor day provided better visibility into future monetizationdrivers through a more modular add-on product strategy rather than a single“superfan” tier. The firm highlighted AI-powered remix/cover creation through the new UMG partnership, AI-generated podcasts/workouts, “Reserved” ticketing/fan experiences,and broader experience aggregation initiatives as key engagement and pricing levers.Barclays also noted management’s LT revenue/margin targets appear achievable,though the biggest debate remains whether growing AI inference costs could pressuremargins over time as AI features become more deeply embedded across the platform. 巴克莱银⾏还指出，管理层的⻓期营收/利润率⽬标似乎是可以实现的，尽管最⼤的争议点仍然在于，随着AI功能更深⼊地嵌⼊整个平台，不断增⻓的AI推理成本是否会随着时间的推移对利润率造成压⼒。 DELL DELL: Evercore Adds Tactical Outperform Ahead ofEarnings on AI Server and Enterprise Momentum DELL：由于AI服务器和企业级业务势头强劲，Evercore在财报发布前将其加⼊“战术跑赢⼤盘”名单 Evercore ISI added DELL to its Tactical Outperform list ahead of earnings, citingcontinued AI infrastructure momentum and improving enterprise AI demand signal